North Korea’s seventh nuclear test could end in tragedy
Strengthened Russia-North Korea relations could spell disaster for the region, especially if North Korea is bold enough to conduct another nuclear test, says academic Kang Jun-young.
The unusually close relations between North Korea and Russia has raised concerns in the international community, destabilising the situation around the Korean peninsula.
On 19 June, North Korea’s Chairman of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong-un held a leaders’ summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang, with both sides raising bilateral relations to a “comprehensive strategic partnership”.
Following the meeting in September 2023 at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia, where North Korea offered weapons aid to Russia in exchange for military technology support — a highly unconventional and dangerous transaction — the recent summit highlights yet another reckless attempt to directly threaten the Korean peninsula as well as Northeast Asia, and even the international community at large.
Mutual provision of military assistance
The meeting seems to have achieved a breakthrough in the resumption of North Korea-Russia relations. Both sides signed the North Korea-Soviet Union Treaty in 1961, which clearly stated that under extreme circumstances there would be “automatic military intervention”, but this clause was dropped in 1996 when North Korea and Russia normalised bilateral relations.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there was no mention of providing security aid in the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborliness, and Cooperation signed in 2000 during the Kim Jong Il era. However, after fostering a cooperative atmosphere when the two leaders met in September last year and in consideration of their respective strategic needs as a result of isolation from international society, the use of the word “comprehensive” during the recent summit delineated cooperation across a range of fields including military, economic and people-to-people exchanges.
Both North Korea and Russia are free to sign treaties on the basis of their respective strategic interests. But on 20 June, the Korean Central News Agency announced that Article 4 of the Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership stipulated that “in the event that either of the parties is invaded and pushed into a state of war by armed invasion from another country or countries, the other party must deploy by all means at its disposal without delay military and other assistance”.
Russia seeks to include North Korea — which has nuclear weapons — into the security front led by Russia in a bid to hamper the US and US-led multilateral mechanisms.
Although there is no explicit mention of “automatic military intervention”, the scope of “state of war by armed invasion” and “military assistance” is vague, and the possibility of it being activated is low. Yet Article 4 puts the cart before the horse, as both Russia and North Korea — which invaded Ukraine and is a constant threat to South Korea respectively — can be said to be in a state of war.
Even as Russia stressed that this was a “defensive” move, it has revealed its intention in legitimising the enlistment of North Korea’s help in its attack on Ukraine. Moreover, Russia seeks to include North Korea — which has nuclear weapons — into the security front led by Russia in a bid to hamper the US and US-led multilateral mechanisms.
Russia’s tacit approval
As for North Korea, it values the military alliance structure that it has constructed with Russia through this new treaty, ensuring that it would be able to use Russia to build up its own military power. During a joint press conference after the summit, Kim called it the “great North Korea-Russia alliance”, using the word “alliance” several times, but Putin gave off a starkly different impression as he did not use the word “alliance” at all.
However, the strengthening of cooperative relations between North Korea and Russia would bring about significant and lasting negative impact.
Firstly, North Korea, South Korea, the US, China, Russia, Japan or other countries would previously raise the issue of “denuclearisation” or “a peaceful system” in their discussion of security issues — but there was no mention of these at all during the recent summit.
In terms of “North Korea’s denuclearisation” or “denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula”, Russia — which is one of the core countries that agree to nuclear non-proliferation — has in fact adopted an attitude of tacit approval towards North Korea.
Another problem is the increased likelihood that Kim will become bolder. He believes that Putin will support his willingness to take risks, and could copy Russia’s actions against Ukraine.
Furthermore, Putin’s statement that Russia “does not rule out military-technical cooperation” with North Korea and that it was “time to reconsider the sanctions by the UN Security Council spearheaded by the US against North Korea” makes it clear that Russia is tolerant towards North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and missiles. Evidently, Russia has all but abandoned its strategic ambiguity.
Another problem is the increased likelihood that Kim will become bolder. He believes that Putin will support his willingness to take risks, and could copy Russia’s actions against Ukraine. He could also engage in bolder provocations if he believes that he will receive security guarantees from Russia.
At the same time, he could make use of Russia’s support to stand firm in the face of pressure from South Korea, the US and Japan to denuclearise. Thus, North Korea will think that new North Korea-Russia relations could bring about very different benefits compared with China’s passive attitude.
Dangers of another nuclear test
The most worrying thing is that a Russia-backed North Korea could launch its seventh nuclear test. If that happens, the Korean peninsula would spin out of control.
North Korea conducted six nuclear tests between 9 October 2006 and 3 September 2017. The first three tests were conducted at intervals of three to four years, but the next three were conducted from 2016 to 2017.
If another nuclear test were to be forcibly conducted, Mt. Mantap (standing at an elevation of around 2,200 metres) could collapse, while Mt. Paektu (or known as Changbai Mountain in China) could even erupt.
Notably, among the six nuclear tests, four were conducted after Chinese President Xi Jinping took office. North Korea disregards even China in order to complete its nuclear programme. Although China flies the banner of “nuclear non-proliferation”, it simply stressed its “constructive role” and appealed for all relevant parties to maintain “coolheadedness”.
However, if North Korea dares to conduct a seventh nuclear test, it would trigger an unprecedented storm. In particular, the foundations around the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, where the six nuclear tests were conducted, have significantly weakened. If another nuclear test were to be forcibly conducted, Mt. Mantap (standing at an elevation of around 2,200 metres) could collapse, while Mt. Paektu (or known as Changbai Mountain in China) could even erupt.
Also, should a radiation leak occur, it could affect other regions including China, triggering a massive environmental catastrophe. This will not only jeopardise the political and social stability of Northeast Asia but also threaten the lives of North Korean residents and over 100 million of those in the three northeast Chinese provinces. This is because once a radiation leak occurs, it will not disappear for centuries — Chinese living in the border areas will be exposed to radiation for generations to come.
This issue was already identified by scientists from North Korea, the UK, the US and China in the 2016 paper “Evidence for partial melt in the crust beneath Mt. Paektu (Changbaishan), Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and China”.
According to a source at the China Earthquake Administration’s Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, the eruption of Mt. Paektu would be ten to 100 times the magnitude of the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland. High-temperature lava and debris will not only cause massive mountain fires and building collapses, but also lead to the overflow of two billion tons of water from Lake Cheonji and massive floods in the surrounding area.
Thus, a seventh nuclear test would not only lead to international political destabilisation but also environmental catastrophe.
From this aspect, North Korea’s seventh nuclear test must be stopped, but North Korea is a country where anything is possible. Like the honeymoon period between North Korea and Russia, bizarre deals that could cause North Korea to misjudge the situation must not continue. North Korea must stop such reckless provocations, and China should also realise that North Korea’s nuclear test jeopardises the safety of Chinese citizens and causes environmental damage.
I hope that China will play a substantial role beyond its “constructive role” in preventing North Korea’s nuclear test, because reckless political calculations should not be allowed to threaten the precious lives and security of humanity.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “金正恩不可误判展开第七次核试验”.
