What if China also isolates Russia?
History shows that isolating Russia comes to no good end, cautions Chinese commentator Chen Liujun. If the West insists on closing off all options, they must be prepared to bear the retaliatory actions from an isolated, desperate Russia.
Starting his fifth term of office, Russian President Vladimir Putin made China his first overseas visit. Compared to his earlier visits in his last four terms, the state visit on 16-17 May garnered unprecedented global attention. Aside from the 7,000-word joint statement, increasing cooperation in various fields and the overall strengthening of bilateral relations, the public focused on who between them needed the other more, and who was the more dependent party.
Isolation never a wise policy
While the international community is closely watching changing geopolitics and the West is on edge about close ties between China and Russia, they may have overlooked important lessons of history and strategic considerations of countries friendly with Russia.
For one, a major power like Russia should not be isolated. The consequences of doing so are perhaps more dire than any other strategy as an isolated Russia is most dangerous. Wars are often the result of isolation, not its cause.
Looking back in history, isolating a major power never works. Napoleon’s rallying of continental Europe to impose a blockade on Britain was marred with challenges, ultimately resulting in the downfall of his imperial aspirations at the hands of the British-led anti-French coalition.
Otto von Bismarck, the first chancellor of the German empire, had also sought to isolate its defeated neighbour France in the wake of the Franco-Prussian War. But despite a detailed plan, everything unravelled after his death and World War I broke out.
Another failed attempt at isolation was the blockade, isolation and repression of militaristic and ambitious Germany after the end of the WWI. In contrast, the decision to accept and reform Germany after the end of World War II was relatively successful. No one sees today’s Germany as a hotbed of war anymore.
It is already difficult to isolate small countries, as the West is doing today with Iran and North Korea.
History teaches us that no crisis caused by a major power can be solved through isolation. It is already difficult to isolate small countries, as the West is doing today with Iran and North Korea.
The West’s isolationist policies largely to blame
There is a bigger price to pay for isolating Russia, not to mention that the policies are often ineffective anyway.
In the first half of the 19th century after the collapse of the Metternich system in continental Europe, Western countries wanted to isolate and suppress Russia, which led to the Crimean War. Yet the defeated Tsarist Russia did not fall but instead launched a wave of domestic reforms.
Russia became a Soviet socialist republic after WWI, and Western countries launched a comprehensive but unsuccessful campaign to isolate it. In the end, they had to rely on Russia’s strength in the fight against fascism during WWII, and their isolation of Russia after WWII even split the world into two camps.
Rather than saying that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the success of the West’s isolationist policies, it is more accurate to say that it was the failure of the Soviet Union’s own reforms.
To a certain extent, the so-called crisis caused by Russia today is the consequence of the West’s isolationist policies.
If China, India and Turkey also isolate or sanction Russia, we can only imagine the wrath of a fully isolated Russia.
In fact, from the time of Peter the Great, Russia had always wanted to integrate into and be a part of Western society. This is evidenced by Peter I’s visit to Amsterdam; Alexander I’s signing of the Holy Alliance; Vladimir Lenin’s signing of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk; and Boris Yeltsin’s “shock therapy” following the collapse of the USSR.
When Putin first came to power over 20 years ago, close cooperation with the West was also on his mind. He had almost begged NATO not to expand eastward so as to maintain mutual respect and equality. But Putin’s Russia did not get what it wished for. Instead it got the West’s persistent distrust and isolationist policies, including NATO’s eastward expansion, financial sanctions and the crisis in Ukraine.
A price to pay for isolating Russia
The West’s isolationist policies against Russia have continued to intensify. If China, India and Turkey also isolate or sanction Russia, we can only imagine the wrath of a fully isolated Russia.
Curbing Russia’s pillar energy industry and cutting off its foreign trade, which restricts industrial equipment and daily necessities from entering the country, directly affects the lives of Russians. This could in turn trigger some degree of internal unrest. When the country’s rulers are unable to solve the problem, they might resort to extreme external measures to achieve their goals and divert domestic attention, as they have done in Ukraine, and possibly other areas in future.
... gaps in the energy supply caused by sanctions on Russian energy will significantly affect global energy prices and production costs; Germany and Europe are already bearing the brunt of the impact.
Insisting on isolating Russia could come with a hefty price tag, including a projected 20% increase in aviation costs attributed to Russia’s extensive airspace, as estimated by the aviation industry at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At the same time, gaps in the energy supply caused by sanctions on Russian energy will significantly affect global energy prices and production costs; Germany and Europe are already bearing the brunt of the impact.
Weapons of mass destruction will enter the global market due to chaotic management, and nuclear weapons could be used due to losses in war. People’s hostility towards international society will also influence Russia’s foreign policy for a long time, and become the main obstacle hindering the country’s integration into international society in future.
... does this imply that the West would favour China if it severs its close ties with Russia?
China’s position should be understood
If circumstances worsen, it would be as the Russians have said: “Why do we need a world if Russia is not in it?” From the point of view of an isolated and desperate Russia, these words could be more than a threat.
From this perspective, despite potential concerns, it is crucial to demonstrate a degree of tolerance and comprehension towards China’s close ties with Russia. Besides, when US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel asserts that China cannot simultaneously pursue better relations with Europe and other nations while posing “the biggest threat to European security in a long time,” does this imply that the West would favour China if it severs its close ties with Russia?
Besides isolation, a scenario where Russia faces total defeat on the battlefield might also be one we wish to avert. The complete downfall of a major power could unleash global chaos, necessitating various conditions to prevent it. For example, there must be strict supervision by a more powerful country; no danger of retaliation with nuclear weapons; and the world should stay stable and united in its stance. Since none of these conditions seem to be present today, the complete isolation of Russia is not feasible.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “俄罗斯不能被孤立”.
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