China’s population mobility shift: Central and western cities on the rise

Since China began its reform and opening up in 1978, the population has gradually concentrated in large coastal cities, forming four first-tier cities — Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen — and a group of second-tier cities primarily consisting of provincial capitals in coastal provinces. These coastal first- and second-tier cities have long been key destinations for attracting incoming populations.

In recent years, the massive influx of people to these first- and second-tier cities has slowed as their population capacity approaches saturation. Instead, population flow has accelerated towards provincial capitals in central and western China.

This shift is changing the 40-year trend of population concentration in eastern coastal areas, providing demographic support for balanced development in the vast central and western regions.

For a long time, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have been the top choices for domestic migration within China. These first-tier cities attract a large influx of people due to their developed economies, openness, comprehensive infrastructure and abundant job opportunities.

Take the capital city Beijing as an example. In 1990, its population of approximately 10.8 million grew to 13.8 million by 2000, an increase of 3 million in 10 years. By 2010, the figure had further increased to 19.6 million, an increase of 5.8 million in 10 years; in 2020, Beijing’s permanent resident population reached 21.9 million, an increase of 2.3 million in 10 years.

Since 2020, Beijing’s population growth has slowed down significantly. The population grew by only 15,000 in 2023, far below the average annual increase of 400,000 from 2000 to 2020. The main reasons for this are Beijing’s high housing prices and local government policies to control the incoming population.

Other first-tier cities are also experiencing a similar slowdown in population growth. Shanghai’s population of over 24 million increased by only 116,000 people last year, while Guangzhou’s population of 18.8 million grew by just 90,000.

In contrast, Hefei, the capital of Anhui province in central China, with a population of over 9.8 million, saw a remarkable growth of 220,000 people last year, surpassing any eastern coastal city’s population increase. Guiyang, the capital of Guizhou province in western China, also grew by 180,000 people, exceeding the growth of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as second-tier eastern cities such as Hangzhou, Nanjing and Xiamen.

Other cities with significant population growth include provincial capitals in central and western China, such as Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Xi’an and Changsha.

Alongside changes in the global and Chinese economic landscapes, as well as adjustments to regional economic development strategies, China’s population migration is undergoing a profound shift. The focus has shifted from predominantly flowing to first- and second-tier eastern cities to now gathering in central and western cities, as well as city clusters.

For a long time, China’s export-oriented strategy has supported the rapid economic growth of the eastern coastal regions, attracting large populations. However, China’s economic and trade ties with traditional partners such as the US, the EU and Japan have been disrupted by geopolitical tensions and trade frictions in recent years.

In response, the Chinese government has introduced new development concepts, such as the “dual circulation” of domestic and international markets, “downward development” with brands shifting to lower-tier markets, and “new quality productive forces”. These strategies aim to avoid over-reliance on eastern megacities and promote balanced regional development.

In terms of regional development strategy, the Chinese government has long recognised the east-west development imbalance resulting from reform and opening-up policies. To address this, they launched initiatives such as the western region development strategy (西部大开发), the rise of central China (中部崛起), and the revitalisation of northeast China (振兴东北). However, these efforts yielded limited results over time. The population continued to flow to coastal regions, leading to uncontrolled growth in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, as well as various social governance issues.

In recent years, the pandemic and shifting international circumstances have significantly impacted coastal export-processing enterprises, with foreign investment also declining. In contrast, the dual circulation strategy, unified domestic market and new quality productive forces initiatives have created substantial development opportunities for independent research and production bases in central and western regions.

The government also encourages talent to “sink down” from first- and second-tier coastal cities to inland cities, and supports the development of inland cities through the provision of talent, funding and technology from the developed coastal cities.

This year, China’s university graduates reached a record high of 11.79 million, making their employment a societal concern. Increasingly, graduates are encouraged to explore new job opportunities in central and western regions, unlike their parents’ generation that chose to stay in first- and second-tier coastal cities.

Meanwhile, the migrant worker population, accounting for around 40% of the labour force, are increasingly choosing to work and live near their hometowns. 

As eastern export-processing factories shutter and inland job opportunities grow, the inter-provincial migration of migrant workers (especially from the central and western regions to the east) is decreasing. Additionally, an ageing population is driving younger migrant workers to seek employment closer to home to care for the elderly. These factors are profoundly changing the traditional west-to-east migration pattern of migrant workers.

However, not all central and western cities are experiencing population growth. In fact, the population is shrinking in many places. For example, the neighbouring western cities of Chengdu and Chongqing saw population growth of 135,000 and a decline of 220,000 respectively in 2023. Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province, grew by 180,000, but other cities in Henan such as Zhoukou, Xinyang and Nanyang lost over 100,000 residents each. 

This indicates intense competition for population among central and western cities. For many central and western provinces, population growth in provincial capitals comes at the expense of decreasing populations in surrounding cities. This is detrimental to economic development “sinking down” to smaller cities and counties, and could lead to new forms of development imbalance.

Changes in population movement patterns are closely tied to the adjustments in China’s industrial layout. Cities with faster population growth, such as Hefei and Zhengzhou, are often hubs for emerging industries such as electric vehicles, digital technology and new energy. 

The population growth in these cities is closely related to local developments in new energy vehicles and high-tech industrial parks. For example, Hainan island, comprising Haikou, Sanya and Danzhou, recorded positive population growth in all three cities in 2023. This is largely linked to Hainan’s construction of a free trade port.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国人口流动的方向变化”.

Related: Younger and better educated migrant workers still having hard time in China | China’s ‘first generation of migrant workers’ fail to achieve generational leap | Time is running out for China to take care of its ageing migrant workers