Is China’s H-20 stealth bomber losing ground to drones?
China’s H-20 stealth bomber faces potential delays until 2030, according to the US Department of Defense. The rise of Chinese UAVs and hypersonic vehicles may have lessened the H-20’s urgency, highlighting a shift in strategic priorities. Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Yu Zeyuan tells us more.
As China’s next-generation stealth strategic bomber, the H-20 has been eagerly anticipated by Chinese military enthusiasts for several years. However, the US Department of Defense, in its annual report on China’s military development submitted to Congress recently, predicted that China’s stealth strategic bomber might not debut until 2030, leaving many Chinese military fans disappointed and somewhat disgruntled.
Strategic bombers, along with land- and sea-based platforms, form a “triumvirate” of nuclear strike capabilities, which are an essential part of a major power’s nuclear deterrence. Currently, China’s strategic bombers are still dominated by the H-6 series, which originated from the former Soviet Union. In terms of stealth, range, payload and penetration capabilities, they significantly lag behind similar products from the US and even Russia. This shortcoming has long been a source of regret for Chinese military enthusiasts.
In September 2016, then-commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force, Ma Xiaotian, responded to media inquiries, saying that China’s long-range strike capability had significantly improved, and would continue to improve in the future, adding that “we are now developing a new generation of long-range strike bombers, and you will see them in the future”.
Much talk but little substance
Since then, news about the development of China’s new generation of stealth strategic bombers has occasionally appeared online, and military enthusiasts were quick to name the new generation of stealth bombers the H-20. The image of a covered up stealth bomber even appeared in a promotional video from the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, which aired on CCTV.
In March 2024, deputy commander of the PLA Air Force Wang Wei explicitly stated in response to questions by reporters about the next-generation strategic bomber that “It’s coming soon, just wait… There is no bottleneck, it can be solved. Our scientific researchers are now very good and all have this capability.”
...the fact that the H-20 has not yet appeared despite much anticipation is at least an indication that the difficulty of developing a stealth strategic bomber in China is greater than imagined by the outside world.
Wang’s statement once again stoked eager anticipation by Chinese military enthusiasts. Many believe that during the airshow in Zhuhai in November this year, the H-20 — or at the very least a model of it — is expected to be unveiled.
However, the H-20 was once again a no-show during the airshow; not even a model appeared.
The US analysis: Technical difficulties?
The US Department of Defense, in its open report on China’s military development, believed that the new stealth strategic bomber being developed by China may have a range of over 10,000 kilometres, which would allow the PLA to cover the second island chain and enter the western region of the Pacific. Its range could potentially cover the globe through aerial refueling, but the development of this stealth bomber has encountered many engineering and technical challenges, which is why it has not yet been unveiled.
It is difficult to determine whether the US’s analysis is accurate, but the fact that the H-20 has not yet appeared despite much anticipation is at least an indication that the difficulty of developing a stealth strategic bomber in China is greater than imagined by the outside world. Technological breakthroughs are needed in various areas such as design, materials, coatings and engines.
Previously, China’s stealth strategic bomber primarily aimed to rival the US B-2 Spirit, but with the US developing the next-generation B-21 Raider stealth bomber, the Chinese military would also raise the performance requirements for the next-generation stealth bomber, so that it is not already behind the B-21 on its debut.
H-20’s delayed unveiling is related to China’s rapid advancements in large unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), particularly hypersonic vehicles, in recent years.
Other military hardware priorities
On the other hand, H-20’s delayed unveiling is related to China’s rapid advancements in large unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), particularly hypersonic vehicles, in recent years. These advancements have reduced the urgency of China’s need for the H-20, a technically and financially demanding strategic weapon, compared to previous years.
The primary purpose of the H-20 is strategic deterrence. In the event of an all-out war between China and the US, including even a nuclear war, the H-20 could be used to deliver a nuclear strike against the contiguous US. But in reality, an all-out war between China and the US is unlikely, and nuclear war even less so.
China has consistently maintained a no-first-use nuclear policy — even in the event of a nuclear war, China can rely on its rapidly developing land- and sea-based platforms, such as the DF-41, a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, and new strategic nuclear submarines, to effectively retaliate. Thus, while a next-generation stealth strategic bomber is an important nuclear delivery platform, it is not an urgent requirement for China.
For China, the most likely locations for conflict with US forces are around the Taiwan Strait and the first and second island chains. In these locations, more practical assets include aerial platforms like the J-20, J-35, J-16, H-6 series aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft, and UAVs; naval platforms such as aircraft carriers, destroyers, and submarines; and the Rocket Force’s various short- and medium-range and hypersonic missiles — in other words, conventional weapons platforms.
Nuclear platforms like the H-20 primarily serve as deterrents; their actual use being unlikely. This allows China to refine its next-generation stealth strategic bomber at leisure, instead of rushing its unveiling to meet the expectations of military enthusiasts before its capabilities meet military requirements.
New technology and equipment
Despite the H-20’s delayed arrival, China’s development of new UAVs and hypersonic vehicles has proceeded apace. During the Airshow China this year, China showcased a dazzling display of various UAVs. Among them is the “Jiutian” (九天) UAV.
Through interchangeable modular payloads, Jiutian offers both surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, and the ability to execute long-range precision strikes. Furthermore, its “heterogeneous honeycomb mission cabin” allows for the deployment of drone swarms, a first-time integration of this tactic with drone technology, marking China’s ascension to a world-leading position in drone warfare.
...among the 30 over members of the “Qian Xuesen Young Scientist Task Force” responsible for developing the MD-19, 65% are under the age of 35, demonstrating the formidable strength and potential of China’s military-industrial research and development teams.
Hunan Television recently unveiled MD-19, a hypersonic wide-range space vehicle capable of flight between 20 and 100 kilometres above Earth, reaching speeds approaching Mach 7. Footage shows the vehicle mounted on a “Twin Tailed Scorpion” drone, executing a stable landing after high-altitude, high-speed flight. Over six years, MD-19 has completed nine flight tests, notably achieving the “world’s first near-space launch and retrieval experiment, enabling cross-domain manoeuvring and safe return”.
Furthermore, among the 30 over members of the “Qian Xuesen Young Scientist Task Force” responsible for developing the MD-19, 65% are under the age of 35, demonstrating the formidable strength and potential of China’s military-industrial research and development teams.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国新一代隐身战略轰炸机为何难产？”.
