China’s modernisation race with the West under Xi Jinping

The recently concluded third plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), along with earlier party and government gatherings and speeches by Xi Jinping, has highlighted the concept of the “Chinese path to modernisation” (中国式现代化).

This theme, though discussed extensively within party communications, remains somewhat vague in its definition and implications. The concept targets both domestic and foreign policy, raising questions about its timing, integration into the CCP ideological framework, particularly Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and its impact on China’s international strategy amid the US-China strategic rivalry.

In Chinese politics, slogans are declarations of a leader’s intent, signals of power assertion and tests of support. These slogans encapsulate the CCP’s strategic and policy responses to national and global contexts and are integrated into the guiding philosophies enshrined in the CCP’s constitution, from Mao Zedong Thought to Xi Jinping Thought.

Each leader supplements these overarching slogans with specific ones outlining strategies and policies in domestic governance and foreign affairs. For instance, Hu Jintao’s Scientific Outlook on Development addressed China’s domestic goal of building a socialist harmonious society and promoted a “harmonious world” in international relations.

China’s foreign policy has historically extended its domestic political agenda. Since 1978, Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up” prioritised economic development to achieve modernisation. Deng’s “maintaining a low profile and biding time” (韬光养晦) doctrine emphasised taking a low-profile approach in international engagements to support domestic development, facilitating economic growth and peaceful approaches to territorial disputes.

Under Xi Jinping, China’s foreign policy has become more assertive, as seen in the “dare to fight” (敢于斗争) doctrine, which reflects a firm stance on issues like Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea. Despite this assertiveness, the core objective remains to support China’s domestic development agenda.

Xi Jinping’s rise to power marked a transformative shift in intra-party politics, consolidating power and establishing a centralised governance framework. This centralisation requires full adherence to the leadership’s directives, leading to widespread promotion of Xi’s slogans, ideology and propaganda. The launch of the Xuexi Qiangguo (学习强国) app, which teaches Xi Jinping Thought through compulsory daily tasks, exemplifies this adherence.

Centralisation enhances Xi’s power and policy influence but also intensifies the pressure to uphold the CCP’s performance-based legitimacy. Xi’s pledges of poverty alleviation and common prosperity aim to address the primary contradiction identified at the end of his first term: the growing material and cultural needs of the people versus underdeveloped social production. However, recent economic challenges, such as the lowest GDP growth since 1990, pose significant threats to the party’s performance-based legitimacy.

The origins of the Chinese path to modernisation trace back to Deng Xiaoping’s era. In 1978, Deng introduced the concept to distinguish China’s approach from Western models.

Initially broad, focusing on modernising industry, agriculture, defence and technology, it aimed to establish a “moderately prosperous society” by the end of the 20th century. By 1982, this evolved into “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, marking a shift from Mao’s emphasis on internal class struggle to prioritising economic development. This inward-looking shift addressed the party’s internal audience and helped reunify the nation under new development-oriented objectives.

The concept resurfaced under Xi Jinping, gaining new significance. In 2015, Xi revisited Deng’s interpretation and upgraded it within the framework of the China dream, aiming to build a moderately prosperous society by the CCP’s centenary in 2021 and a modern socialist powerhouse by the PRC’s centenary in 2049. The Chinese Dream faced criticism for its ambiguity, prompting Xi to create a new consensus with fresh appeal.

From 2021 onwards, the Chinese path to modernisation emerged as a pivotal concept, enshrined in the ‘Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party over the Past Century,’ reaffirming it as the path to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”,

While primarily domestic, the Chinese path to modernisation has significant foreign policy implications. Upholding CCP leadership and socialism with Chinese characteristics underscores the domestic focus but also suggests broader ideological continuity.

The concept addresses criticisms of Western modernisation, promising shared prosperity, material and cultural-ethical advancement, harmony between humanity and nature, and peaceful development. It advocates a “whole-process people’s democracy” and a “community of shared future for mankind” as alternatives to the Western democratic model and US-led international order.

The Chinese path to modernisation aims to pioneer a new model for human advancement, targeting the developing world. Reminiscent of previous China models, it seeks to establish a rival discourse to Western-led modernisation.

During the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs in December 2023, Xi instructed diplomats to align their efforts with the Chinese path to modernisation, fostering a conducive international environment and providing strategic support for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and building a community of shared future for mankind.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted the interconnected nature of these concepts, aiming to support the modernisation aspirations of developing countries while preserving their independence. This approach aligns China’s development with global development, fostering mutual interests and cooperation. China’s foreign policy during Xi’s third term is expected to deepen partnerships with developing countries, focusing on infrastructure, development aid, and soft power aspects like showcasing the benefits of Chinese modernisation.

In recalibrating relations with the West, China aims to shift from strategic competition to a competition over modernisation trajectories. Xi has signalled that the Chinese path to modernisation could open up external cooperation, creating opportunities for foreign enterprises. This approach seeks to reduce strategic hostility and highlight the economic dividends of cooperation, despite the inherent criticisms of the Western approach in the Chinese path to modernisation.

The Chinese path to modernisation, as conceptualised by Xi Jinping, aims to build a new vision with fresh appeal and objectives. It addresses China’s development issues and reflects Xi’s vision for global development, presenting a uniquely Chinese path to modernisation as an alternative to the Western paradigm. The true test of this slogan will be in its implementation and global response.

As China navigates its path to modernisation, it aims to refocus the global agenda on development, strengthen its alignment with the developing world, and compete with the West over modernisation trajectories. Understanding this concept is crucial to comprehending China’s policies and actions in the years to come.

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