A G2 moment for Southeast Asia?

Although US-China relations are in an uneasy truce with lingering differences over a range of issues, there are certain planned events, including Trump’s upcoming visit to China in April and Xi’s reciprocal visit in the second half of the year, that suggest the two countries could reach fresh agreements in some areas.

In view of this and as an aspirational pitch at the start of 2026, the author is of the view that the two countries have a strong interest to cooperate on two issues, i.e., tackling online scams in Southeast Asia and ensuring a more lasting peace on the Thai-Cambodia border, that would be mutually beneficial to both.

Trump’s tariff measures are no longer effective in forcing the Chinese side to scurry to Washington to strike a deal. During Trump’s first term, Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He — President Xi Jinping’s special envoy — travelled to Washington repeatedly for negotiations after the US imposed tariffs on China in 2018. Even more glaringly, when Trump spoke at length in 2019 about reaching a phase one trade deal, Liu’s response was barely heard. At that time, Beijing somewhat kowtowed to US demands.

Under Trump 2.0, China has been firmer and more confident in dealing with the US, which has worked to its favour. It countered America’s pressure with tit-for-tat measures while keeping the door open for talks. Discussions between the two sides were held in third countries, including Geneva, London, Stockholm, Madrid and Kuala Lumpur, eventually culminating in a Trump-Xi meeting in Busan in September 2025 that produced a temporary truce. This time, the US appears more eager to secure some form of economic arrangement with China, without a complete rupture in bilateral ties.

There are further indications that Trump would like to keep US-China ties on an even keel, at least in the leadup to his China visit. The White House’s National Security Strategy (NSS) did not refer to China as a strategic threat or competitor, as was the case under US President Joe Biden, who described China as “America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge”. In fact, under the NSS, a foremost priority was to “rebalance America’s economic relationship with China”. Trump has also been tougher on India than China to stop buying Russia’s oil.

Trump appears open to working with China on issues that benefit America most, especially on trade and economic matters, despite their differences. However, the two countries could collaborate on two other issues which are in their national interests and do not require much effort to reap mutual benefits.

Both China and the US have an interest to work together to tackle online scamming operations in Southeast Asia. On China’s part, many ordinary Chinese are victims of these scamming operations. Equally important, a number of these scamming operations are run by Chinese nationals or have links to them. 

One example is the case of Chen Zhi, the founder and former chairman of Cambodia’s Prince Group, who was arrested and extradited to China in January 2026 to face charges, a move Beijing regards as a notable outcome in its active collaboration with foreign countries to tackle cross-border online gaming and telecom fraud. Moreover, a large proportion of the scamming operations are in Southeast Asia, which China considers an important part of its neighbourhood.

Americans are not immune to online scamming operations in Southeast Asia either. According to the US Department of the Treasury, US citizens lost at least US$10 billion in 2024 to Southeast Asia-based scam operations — ranging from fake job offers, romance and investment scams to e-market fraud — a 66% increase from 2023.

The US Department of the Treasury has further imposed sanctions against scam centres and individuals in Southeast Asia, including Chen Zhi and the Prince Group. Hence, safeguarding Americans from predatory criminal activities aligns closely with Trump’s “America first” policy of prioritising the well-being and interests of Americans.

There are several areas that America and China can jointly work on to fight online scamming operations. These include sharing data on scam network operations, tracking and interdicting illegal financial flows, coordinating law enforcement and joint operations, collaborating on victim rescue, and human trafficking prevention.

Beijing and Washington could also provide technical assistance to strengthen the human resource capacity of relevant Southeast Asian countries in areas such as cyber-fraud detection, cryptocurrency-related crimes, digital forensics and network infiltration, development and deployment of AI-driven systems to scan and flag scam activities in real time.

Currently, the two countries are working separately with Southeast Asian countries to tackle online scamming operations. Despite a drastic cut in America’s foreign aid, the US State Department continues to fund the Mekong-US Partnership (MUSP), which seeks to promote peace, stability and sustainable development in the sub-region.

In particular, the MUSP held a policy dialogue on the digital economy across themes such as cyber resilience and online scams, data governance, e-commerce and digital payments. This policy dialogue builds on an earlier dialogue in 2024 on countering online scam operations across topics such as prevention of scams, the role of media and civil society, multilateral collaboration, and regulatory efforts related to special economic zones (SEZs) and casinos, digital finance, and telecommunications.

On its part, China is also enhancing law enforcement and security cooperation, including conducting joint patrols with countries along the Mekong River to fight online and telecom fraud, as well as piracy.

The US and China have an interest to work together to uphold peace, stability and development along the Thai-Cambodia border. For the US, Trump regards a ceasefire between the two countries as adding to his tally of ending eight wars within a short time frame. However, ensuring that the ceasefire holds would add more credibility to Trump’s claim to be a peacemaker. It would even help him secure a Nobel Peace Prize rather than being given one.

On China’s part, it does not wish to see Thailand and Cambodia fight each other as Beijing attaches great importance to strengthening ties with Southeast Asia, an integral part of its neighbourhood. Continued fighting between the two countries will further undermine Beijing’s effort to implement key programmes related to the Global Development Initiative and Belt and Road Initiative, which require a peaceful and stable environment.

Moreover, if conflict persists, the two countries would end up using Chinese weapons against each other since Beijing already supplies weapons to Cambodia, its iron-clad friend, and is also Thailand’s largest arms supplier. The optics of Chinese weapons fuelling the conflict would tarnish Beijing’s image.

Worse still, the conflict could become a proxy war pitting the US against China. Already, Thailand has used American F-16s to strike targets in Cambodia. If the situation worsens, the US could even step up its presence on Thai soil since it is already a US ally, a development Beijing would loathe to see.

So far, China and the US have largely pursued separate tracks to get the two countries to resolve their differences at the table. To some extent, Trump’s threat to impose high tariffs on Thailand and Cambodia led to the ceasefire agreement in July 2025, which was later reinforced with the joint declaration in October 2025. But after renewed fighting between the two countries in December 2025, China assumed a bigger role in brokering peace between the two countries, which led to a second ceasefire agreement and additional measures to consolidate the ceasefire, rebuild mutual trust, and safeguard regional peace.

So far, the ceasefire has held despite occasional tensions. Apart from China, America remains committed to supporting the ceasefire with its pledge of US$45 million for measures including stabilising the Thai-Cambodian border, helping communities recover, supporting displaced persons, and clearing mines and unexploded ordnance.

Although the US has attempted to sideline China and downplay Beijing’s contribution, it is reasonable to argue that peace along the Thai-Cambodia border can be more lasting if the two countries can jointly work on this issue together with ASEAN, Thailand and Cambodia.  

There is common ground in Xi’s call on China and the US to jointly shoulder responsibilities as major countries to achieve more great and concrete things, and in Trump’s belief that the G2, in this case America and China, are the ones that really matter on the global stage.

As the world’s two consequential powers, China and the US could make a big difference in fighting online scams in Southeast Asia and in keeping peace along the Thai-Cambodia border if they cooperate. Each of them is already doing something on their own. But their joint efforts are likely to bring about more effective and lasting outcomes that will not only be mutually beneficial to the two countries but also boost Trump’s and Xi’s image on the domestic front and international stage.

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