To Lam’s visit: China set to acknowledge goodwill from Vietnam’s new leader

To Lam, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Central Committee and Vietnamese president, arrived in Guangzhou on 18 August for a three-day state visit. China is the first country Lam visited after taking office earlier this month, highlighting the new Vietnamese leadership’s emphasis on developing Vietnam-China relations.

During former Vietnamese President Nguyen Phu Trong’s decade-long tenure, Vietnam adopted a balanced “bamboo diplomacy” approach in its relations with the major powers of China, the US and Russia. Although China-Vietnam relations faced issues such as sovereignty over the South China Sea, Trong was still seen as pro-China, and China-Vietnam relations were relatively stable overall.

During Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping’s visit to Vietnam last December, both sides also agreed to build a China-Vietnam community with a shared future that carries strategic significance, elevating China-Vietnam relations to new heights.

After Trong passed away on 19 July, Xi personally mourned the passing of the Vietnamese leader at the embassy of Vietnam in China and sent CCP Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Huning to Vietnam to attend Trong’s funeral, displaying China’s strong resolve to stabilise China-Vietnam relations.

Vietnam is not only China’s largest trading partner in ASEAN but also an important focus for China in handling South China Sea affairs. Against the backdrop of the Philippines actively cooperating with the US and other extraterritorial countries to challenge China’s sovereignty claims in the disputed waters in the South China Sea, Vietnam’s importance to China in shaping the situation in the South China Sea has become more prominent.

In recent months, both Vietnam and the Philippines have filed a claim with the United Nations for an extended continental shelf in the South China Sea, to which China opposed. In August, the Philippines and Vietnam even held their first joint maritime exercises in the waters off Manila. Chinese public opinion is concerned that Vietnam could become the next Philippines.

Of course, China does not want Vietnam to follow the Philippines’ lead and become a new source of trouble. Whether Vietnam’s new leader will inherit Trong’s pro-China approach and prevent Vietnam from becoming a “pawn” for the US to contain China is China’s top priority in handling China-Vietnam relations. During Lam’s state visit to China, both sides are expected to reaffirm their commitment to preventing maritime sovereignty disputes from hindering the development of bilateral relations.

For Lam and the new Vietnamese government, managing relations with China remains a top priority for Vietnam’s foreign policy. Although the US is the top superpower and Vietnam’s most important export market, it is not as geographically close or as directly impactful on Vietnam as China.

Before Lam’s visit to China, Vietnam sent a delegation to the US seeking recognition of its market economy status, but the request was rejected.

Also, Vietnam and China share similar political systems and ideologies, and Vietnam has always been wary of potential “colour revolutions” that the US might instigate. If the CPV’s rule is threatened, its leadership can only turn to China for help.

Over the past year, under the leadership of Trong and Lam, Vietnam has launched an anti-corruption campaign that resulted in the resignations of two presidents, Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Vo Van Thuong, as well as National Assembly Chair Vuong Dinh Hue. Two deputy prime ministers were also dismissed due to corruption allegations, and the political situation of the country remains unstable.

After Lam took office, stabilising the domestic political situation became his top priority, with China playing a crucial role in Vietnam’s stability. Thus, it is not surprising that Lam made China the destination of his first overseas trip.

The delegation accompanying Lam on his visit includes Do Van Chien, CPV Politburo member and secretary of the party central committee; Le Minh Hung, Politburo member and head of the party central committee; Nguyen Xuan Thang, Politburo member and chairman of the central theory council; Phan Van Giang, Politburo member and Minister of National Defense; Luong Tam Quang, Politburo member and Minister of Public Security; and Deputy Prime Minister Tran Luu Quang, among others —  a sizeable delegation certainly.

China is expected to receive Lam with a high degree of courtesy. Besides meeting and holding dialogues with CCP General Secretary and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and other leaders, the seven members of the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee would also collectively hold a banquet for Lam, in line with the banquet that was hosted for Trong during his visit in 2022 to China.

Certain self media outlets in China opined that Lam’s visit to China this time around was also to seek amends for the damage to Vietnam’s interests stemming from China’s support towards Cambodia in the construction of the Funan Techo Canal.

The 180-kilometre waterway that broke ground on 5 August would be developed by a Chinese firm and is slated for completion in 2028. Once operational, the waterway will connect the Mekong River within Cambodia to the coast in Kep, reducing Cambodia’s reliance on Vietnam for transporting its goods — hence Vietnam’s persistent opposition to the project.

Vietnam had no choice but to accept the situation when its opposition came to no avail and hoped to be involved in matters related to the canal. Chinese self-media outlets opined that once the canal is completed, a logistics channel will be established from Yunnan directly to Thailand, Myanmar, Laos and Kep in Cambodia. This new route will provide China with leverage to keep Vietnam in check and encourage it to engage more actively in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

However, Lam’s visit to China primarily aims to stabilise relations between the two countries and enhance bilateral economic and trade collaboration to drive economic growth in Vietnam.

Prior to Lam’s visit, Vietnam’s Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son stated that the focus would be on implementing the consensus and agreements reached by both sides. The goal is to advance substantive cooperation, particularly in areas of mutual interest such as railway connections, agricultural trade, high-quality investment, financial and monetary affairs, culture and tourism, and people-to-people exchanges.

Reuters quoted a Vietnamese official on 16 August who stated that during Lam’s visit to China, new agreements on railways, other investments and trade in agricultural products were expected.

However, the railroad standards for China and Vietnam differ. Currently, Vietnam still uses the 1,000 mm narrow-gauge railway from the French colonial era, while China uses the international 1,435 mm track gauge. In October 2023, China and Vietnam signed documents for collaboration on rail projects to remodel Vietnam’s domestic railway tracks, and to take China-Vietnam connectivity to a new level.

Given that Lam chose China as the first country to visit after becoming Vietnam’s top leader, it is expected that China will reciprocate in kind. Whether politically, economically or otherwise, China will ensure that Lam’s visit is not in vain. This is a diplomatic approach in which China is particularly adept.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “苏林访华稳定越中关系”.

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