[Big read] China-US rivalry enters the field of quantum technology

In December last year, US tech giant Google announced that its latest quantum chip, Willow, could complete in five minutes calculations that would take conventional supercomputers 10²⁵ years — longer than the age of the universe — sending shockwaves through the tech world.

As soon as the news broke, Tesla founder Elon Musk exclaimed “Wow” on social media platform X, while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also sent “big congrats!!” on the same platform.

Beyond Willow’s impressive computing power, Xiang Jingen, founder and CEO of Shenzhen-based SpinQ, pointed out to Lianhe Zaobao that the biggest highlight of Google’s announcement was a more critical technological breakthrough — the significant progress in quantum error correction (QEC) technology.

The fundamental unit of quantum computing is the quantum bit (qubit), which differs fundamentally from the classical bit used in traditional computers.

While classical bits can only exist in a state of 0 or 1, qubits can exist in a superposition of both 0 and 1 at the same time. This enables quantum computers to achieve exponential speed advantages when solving complex problems. Additionally, the phenomenon of “entanglement” between qubits gives quantum computers extraordinary parallel computing power.

In simple terms, a traditional computer is like a car that must gradually accelerate along a road, while a quantum computer is like an airplane that can explore multiple flight paths simultaneously, reaching its destination at incredible speeds.

However, qubits are highly susceptible to environmental noise, temperature fluctuations, electromagnetic interference, and other factors, which can cause information loss or computational errors. QEC is a key technology for ensuring the stable operation of quantum computing. It detects and corrects errors that occur during the computation process, improving the reliability and accuracy of the calculations.

Extending the airplane analogy, QEC is like an automatic navigation system that constantly adjusts the course amid strong turbulence and unexpected disruptions, ensuring that the task is completed accurately and safely.

Xiang, a longtime researcher in quantum computing technology, said QEC is crucial for achieving large-scale, practical quantum computing. Google’s feasibility demonstration in this area means that the goal is not only possible but may be achieved faster than originally expected.

The computational power of a quantum computer depends on the number of qubits, error rates and error correction capabilities. Reducing error rates is one of the core challenges in transitioning from experimental devices to general-purpose quantum computers.

When interviewed, Professor Jose Ignacio Latorre, director of the Centre for Quantum Technologies (CQT) in Singapore, shared that quantum computing error rates have improved significantly in the past decade.

He told me that ten years ago, the error rate for a single quantum gate was about 10%. This was gradually reduced to 1%, and is now further optimised to 0.1%. In just 10 years, the precision of quantum computing has improved 100-fold.

Latorre said, “We’ve made significant progress, which is truly amazing. But for quantum computing to become useful, we believe we have to reach 0.001% errors.”

He predicts that with growing global investment in quantum technology, this goal could be realised within the next five years, which would be a key milestone in the development of quantum computing.

The global digital wave is accelerating the surge in demand for computational power, and robust computing power has become the core support and driving force for the development of artificial intelligence (AI).

Studies show that the computational power required for AI model training is growing exponentially, doubling every 100 days, and is expected to increase by more than a million times in the next five years.

Latorre pointed out that breakthroughs in quantum computing not only mean improvements in computational power but also have the potential to reshape fields such as AI, information security and financial analysis. As a result, countries are racing to compete, aiming to be the first to develop a truly practical quantum computer.

The strategic value of quantum computing is becoming increasingly apparent, positioning it as a core area of competition among major powers and evolving into a key battleground in the US-China rivalry. This has led to ongoing technological competition and technology blockades.

In an effort to curb China’s development in quantum computing, the US has taken a series of measures over the past year, including export controls on technology, restrictions on the movement of high-end talent, and pressure on allies to reduce cooperation with China.

In October of last year, the Biden administration finalised new rules aimed at prohibiting US individuals and companies from investing in and developing a range of advanced technologies in China, including semiconductors, quantum technologies and AI. These new rules kicked in on 2 January of this year.

Xiang believes that while the new regulation increases China’s R&D costs, its overall impact is limited. He pointed out that the quantum industry is still in its early development stage, and the market size and industrial chain are not yet fully mature. In fact, to some extent, sanctions have pushed Chinese companies to accelerate their independent R&D efforts.

Taking ultra-low-temperature cooling equipment for quantum computers as an example, Xiang explained that in the past, such equipment mainly relied on foreign suppliers. However, under the pressure of sanctions, Chinese companies have seized market opportunities and increased R&D investment.

He said, “Currently, more than 10 local companies have started producing ultra-low-temperature cooling equipment, and their performance is now approaching international levels.”

However, Xiang admitted that the US still leads China in terms of technological accumulation and high-end talent density in the quantum computing field, maintaining an advantage of at least about three years. Nevertheless, China is ramping up its resource investment and gradually narrowing this gap.

According to a 2022 report by McKinsey, China has committed to invest US$15.3 billion in public funds for quantum computing, eight times the US$1.9 billion the US government has pledged.

Analysts point out that China’s rise in the quantum field is largely due to strong national policy support and an innovative development model. In China, government leadership is the core driving force behind the development of quantum technologies, while the US relies more on private sector investment and market-driven forces.

A September 2024 report by US think tank Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) on China’s quantum innovation capacity highlighted that unlike the US, which focuses on knowledge creation, China places more emphasis on technology implementation, aiming to quickly transform innovations into tangible products.

Additionally, China’s quantum innovation strategy and funding system are highly centralised. The government coordinates the development of universities, research institutions, and businesses to ensure efficient resource allocation. This contrasts with the more decentralised and slower-moving approach in the US.

Xiang believes that while there are differences in the operational models and funding approaches of quantum technology in China and the US, both countries share a core objective — enhancing computational power and achieving practical quantum computing.

He said that whether driven by the government or the market, the development of quantum technology will ultimately go through a phase of initial exploration followed by a process of natural selection, where the true winner will be determined by who can first break through key technological bottlenecks and achieve large-scale, usable quantum computing.

The competition in quantum computing involves the ability to break encryption algorithms, which has far-reaching implications for national security. Both China and the US are accelerating the development of quantum technologies to enhance military advantages and strengthen security protections.

Quantum computing has revolutionary potential in multiple fields, including artificial intelligence, drug development, and financial modeling. Among these, one of the most striking applications is its disruptive impact on encryption technologies.

Encryption technology is the core foundation of modern security systems, widely applied in critical areas such as military communications, financial transactions and government confidentiality protection. However, once quantum computers make a breakthrough, existing systems will face the risk of being rapidly decrypted, posing a major threat to global information security.

As a result, quantum computing has been incorporated into the core security strategies of multiple countries. Both China and the US have made it a national-level technological development priority, striving to gain an edge in this cutting-edge field.

As early as 2002, the US established quantum information science as a priority development area and accelerated the research and industrialisation of quantum technologies through the National Quantum Initiative Act in 2018.

In its 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), China set strategic goals to develop quantum computing and quantum communications, and formally listed quantum technology as a key frontier field in its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). 

Latorre said that military applications are the core driving force behind the large-scale investment in quantum technologies by both China and the US. Breakthroughs in this area will provide unprecedented advantages for cyber warfare and intelligence gathering.

He pointed out that the enormous investments by China and the US in quantum cryptography clearly reflect its core position in national security strategies. The development of quantum cryptography aims to build secure communication systems that can withstand quantum decryption attacks, enhancing global information security protection.

Latorre said, “The competition between China and the US in quantum technology is not just about technological breakthroughs but also geopolitical dominance. The countries that reach quantum computing technology will gain a strategic advantage in areas such as defence and cybersecurity, shaping the future international landscape.”

Associate Professor Gu Qingyang of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) at the National University of Singapore (NUS) also pointed out in an interview that, unlike the past great power competition primarily centred around hot wars, the current game between China and the US has shifted to the realms of technology and economics. Quantum computing, due to its immense strategic value and potential to enhance national strength, has naturally become the focal point of competition between the two countries.

Gu believes that this competition, to some extent, can drive technological progress, similar to the space and satellite race in history, which has had a positive impact on global technological innovation.

However, he emphasised that breakthroughs in quantum technology still face numerous technical bottlenecks and challenges, and progress in this field will require global cooperation and collaborative innovation.

Gu Qingyang said that if China and the US push forward the development of quantum technology through a confrontational approach rather than cooperation, it would be detrimental to global scientific exchange and delay breakthroughs in key technologies. “How to seek cooperation amid competition will be a key challenge for the future development of quantum technology.”

Latorre expressed concern that, with China and the US continuing to increase their investments in quantum research, the military applications of quantum technology could trigger a new arms race.

However, in the long run, Latorre is more optimistic. He said that the development of many key technologies initially stemmed from military or national security needs, but as these technologies matured and became more widely used, they gradually expanded into civilian sectors, ultimately benefiting global society.

Latorre cited how the internet was originally used for military communications but later evolved into a global information network; satellite technology was initially used for military reconnaissance and navigation, but it later became widely used in civilian communications, weather forecasting, and global positioning systems.

He speculated that, with breakthroughs and wider adoption, China and the US might eventually shift toward addressing global challenges, such as climate change, healthcare and data privacy.

But he emphasised that the prerequisite for such cooperation is that both countries reach critical technical milestones in quantum research and that the security of quantum computing is fully validated. As of now, this goal is still a long way off.

The accelerated advancement of the quantum computing race may further widen the “quantum divide”, exacerbating global economic inequality.

The development of quantum computing requires enormous financial investment, top-tier scientific talent, and advanced experimental equipment. Many developing countries, due to limited resources and weak technological foundations, find it difficult to overcome this high barrier.

According to the World Economic Forum, as of 2021, only 17 countries globally had established national initiatives or strategies to support quantum technology development.

CQT’s Latorre said that more developed countries not only lead in fields like quantum computing and communication but are also gradually establishing dominance over the emerging quantum economy. Developing countries that struggle to access these key technologies are likely to become further marginalised in terms of future economic competitiveness and technological sovereignty.

“If this keeps up, developing countries will fall further behind in the tech race, which will have a major impact on global inequality and the divide between nations.”

Gu said the development of quantum computing involves multiple technological pathways. If countries choose different routes and lack cooperation, the world could end up with two competing technological ecosystems, led by China and the US.

He said, “This could lead to incompatible technological systems, increasing the cost of connectivity, especially for developing countries. Additionally, this split could profoundly affect global technological standards, industrial development, and even geopolitical dynamics.”

Gu also noted that China and the US may use quantum technology as a bargaining chip to attract allies, potentially forming rival blocs similar to the semiconductor industry. He said, “If quantum computing goes on this path, global technological alliances may further fragment, and geopolitical struggles will intensify.”

Although smaller countries may struggle to compete with larger ones in terms of resources and technological foundations, the strategic value of quantum technology still requires them to make forward-looking investments in this field.

Latorre explained that Singapore has adopted a diversified strategy, exploring multiple quantum computing paths, including ion traps, superconducting systems, neutral atoms, and photonic quantum computing, to reduce technological risks and increase innovation potential.

He added that Singapore, through flexible diplomacy, has managed to avoid getting entangled in the geopolitical competition of major powers. This has allowed Singapore to maintain cooperative relationships with quantum technology-leading nations such as China and the US, enabling it to gain technological support and share resources.

CQT has also established scholarship programmes aimed at attracting students from Singapore and around the world. The goal is to give students from developing countries the opportunity to study cutting-edge quantum technology and bring that knowledge back to their home countries to foster the development and application of local technologies.

Latorre said that this initiative is one of the efforts to bridge the “quantum divide”, but true progress will take many years.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “量子竞赛点燃战火 中美博弈开新赛道”.

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