Does Elon Musk’s Starship outshine Chinese rockets?

On 13 October, SpaceX achieved a milestone in reusable rocket technology, successfully catching its 23-storey Super Heavy booster with the innovative “chopsticks” technique during Starship’s fifth orbital test flight. This marked the first time a rocket’s first stage was retrieved using a launch tower’s mechanical arms.

Lauded internationally and considered crucial for the planned 2026 US lunar mission, this success garnered significant attention and even admiration in China. Many Chinese netizens declared that “Musk should be written into the annals of space history” and that “we cannot be stingy with our congratulations; it is impressive.”

However, amid intensifying US-China space rivalry, this American aerospace achievement has sparked anxiety among some Chinese commentators, who worry that Starship’s success, like that of Starlink, could eclipse China’s own space programme.

Launched at 830am local time on 13 October from Boca Chica, Texas, Starship’s Super Heavy booster separated from the spacecraft at approximately 74 kilometres altitude. About seven minutes after launch, three of the booster’s 33 engines reignited for a controlled descent, culminating in a groundbreaking catch by the launch tower’s “Chopsticks” mechanical arms. Meanwhile, the spacecraft continued its journey, ultimately splashing down in the Indian Ocean after an hour-long flight, as planned.

At 122 metres tall (approximately 40 stories), Starship is currently the world’s largest rocket. Comprised of a reusable 70-metre Super Heavy booster and a reusable spacecraft, it will serve as the lunar lander for NASA’s Artemis programme.

In the past 18 months, Starship has conducted five test flights, making steady progress despite explosions of both the booster and spacecraft during testing. Over the next two years, Starship will undergo at least five more test flights to refine its launch missions, aiming to support a US crewed lunar landing by 2026.

US media describes the “chopsticks” recovery technique as unprecedented, requiring pinpoint flight control and hovering accuracy to prevent the rocket from toppling or exploding upon return. This breakthrough enhances reusability and allows for a lighter Super Heavy booster, increasing Starship’s cargo capacity and lowering launch costs.

As Aerospace Yuxing vice-president Cao Meng noted in The Beijing News, low-cost, high-capacity space access could eventually enable hour-long travel between any two points on Earth.

SpaceX’s goal is to produce over a thousand Starships annually, achieving twice-weekly flights and colonising Mars before 2050.

On the other side of the Pacific, many in China have expressed admiration for the successful “chopstick” rocket catch. In an article on 14 October, guancha.cn quoted aerospace writer Gao Tianwei, who assessed that it might “take a while” for similar Chinese rockets to come up, noting that China’s Long March 9 rocket design clearly follows the Starship.

Gao pointed out that the concept for China’s rocket, a Starship-like design with a nine-meter diameter and dozens of engines in a parallel configuration, has been under development for about a decade but awaits official approval.

He felt China was in no hurry to follow Starship’s development due to significant uncertainties and the lack of a proven technological and commercial model. Rushing to replicate it and encountering insurmountable obstacles could lead to enormous wasted time and resources, potentially impacting missions that a more stable approach could have accomplished.

While acknowledging China’s progress in aerospace, ranking second globally in technology and market size, Gao admitted a significant gap with the US, particularly in experience with heavy-lift rockets and funding (estimated at half of US spending). He concluded that China must advance strategically, working within its capabilities.

Some Chinese netizens, however, criticised the disproportionate attention given to American versus Chinese rockets.

On 14 October, a NetEase News article titled “Worshipping Foreign Things?” highlighted the disparity between the widespread praise for Starship and the relative silence surrounding the successful test flight of the Zhuque-3, a privately developed Chinese reusable rocket, on 11 September.

The article attributed Starship’s acclaim to Musk’s charisma and extensive international media coverage, while arguing that a lack of domestic promotion, coupled with some Chinese citizens’ biases towards foreign technology, contributed to Zhuque-3’s lower profile. The article championed Zhuque-3, emphasising the challenges and hardships faced by Chinese rocket developers.

The article highlighted China’s own space achievements, including the Long March rockets, the Chang’e lunar programme, and the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, advocating for greater national pride and a more balanced perspective. It urged readers to avoid blind admiration of foreign technology while remaining open to learning from international advancements.

Chinese media reported that the Zhuque-3 is China’s first stainless steel liquid propellant rocket launched last December by Chinese private aerospace company LandSpace. It completed its first flight test in January at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, and is scheduled to take its maiden flight in 2025 following numerous flight validations this year. It has the potential to reduce launch costs by 80 to 90% compared to single-use rockets.

The Zhuque-3 has a total length of 76.6 metres, which is only two-thirds the height of the Starship. Its lift-off weight is about 660 tonnes, a far cry from the Starship’s nearly 5,000 tonnes. It has a carrying capacity of 21.3 tonnes in low-Earth orbit, which is not comparable to the Starship’s capacity of up to 150 tonnes.

As for the similarities between the two rockets, both are powered by liquid oxygen and liquid methane, and their structures are both made of stainless steel. Zhang Changwu, founder and CEO of LandSpace, noted that the stainless steel rocket body structure can greatly reduce manufacturing costs and shorten the production cycle of rockets. Its high temperature resistance has obvious advantages in multiple return and reuse of rockets.

Aerospace experts pointed out that liquid oxygen-methane rockets have entered a rapid development phase worldwide, capable of meeting the requirements for large-scale space access, routine transportation, high thrust, high performance, and reusability. 

On 15 October, The Beijing News quoted Dong Kai, deputy chief engineer of the Zhuque-3 at LandSpace, as saying that the new round of Starship launches is “reminiscent of the Age of Discovery when Magellan completed his circumnavigation and people finally believed the Earth was round”.  

Dong said that SpaceX has a high level of openness, and LandSpace has been closely monitoring every step of its progress, with dedicated teams conducting specialised analyses on the developments. He pointed out that the fourth and fifth test flights of the Starship provided valuable insights for the subsequent design and development plans of the Zhuque-3.

Dong also assessed that there is still a significant gap between China’s commercial space sector and the Starship. “We are not in a position to make direct comparisons with the Starship yet. It’s still about ‘catching up with and surpassing the world’s advanced levels’. For now, we need to focus on catching up,” he noted.

China has made continuous breakthroughs in aerospace in recent years, with last year’s number of space launches and spacecraft developments reaching new highs.

According to the blue paper of China aerospace science and technology issued at the end of February, China carried out 67 space launch missions and put 221 spacecraft into space last year, setting new records for both items. China ranks second in the world in terms of the number of space launch missions, accounting for 30% of the world’s 223 launch attempts.

Among them, the Long March series of carrier rockets operated by the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation successfully launched 47 times, while the number of commercial rocket launches also saw a significant increase.

The blue paper noted that China is projected to make about 100 space launch missions this year, setting a new record for the country. Among them, the China Space Station has entered the normal operation stage and will complete two cargo spacecraft missions, two manned spaceflight missions and two return missions within 2024; the Queqiao-2 relay satellite will be launched to provide communication between the far side of the moon and the Earth; and the Chang’e-6 lunar probe will be launched to conduct the world’s first lunar sample return mission in the South Pole-Aitken Basin on the far side of the moon. 

This year, China will also launch ocean salinity detection satellites, and conduct the maiden flights of new models such as the Long March 6B and Long March 12. The country’s first commercial space launch site will conduct its debut mission, and several satellite constellations will accelerate the construction of their networks.

Based on the aforementioned, China’s aerospace sector is not only developing rapidly but also exhibiting a diverse and competitive environment. However, compared with the intense focus on the Starship, the sheer volume of news and information related to China’s aerospace sector can scatter public attention and even lead to information fatigue to a certain extent. Yet, this does not mean that these projects lack value or significance.

Amid the China-US race for space dominance, public attention on technological breakthroughs is not particularly crucial for the two powers. The key lies in who holds the core technologies and seizes the initiative in this significant era.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “马斯克“星舰”光芒盖过中国火箭？”.

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