Starlink, meet Qianfan: China’s bold bid to catch up in the satellite race

On 6 August, China launched the first batch of 18 satellites in the Qianfan (or Thousand Sails) satellite network, dubbed the country’s version of the US’s Starlink, via the Long March 6A carrier rocket. The satellites successfully entered their designated orbits, kicking off China’s plans to use its low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite internet constellation to catch up to Starlink. 

The current traditional land mobile telecommunications service covers less than 6% of Earth’s total surface area, and is limited by inherent features. The construction of land-based stations across all areas would incur a high cost; in the short term, coverage can only be guaranteed in cities. 

However, a satellite internet network can provide global coverage, bringing internet access to blind spots such as remote regions and the seas. 

Satellite internet networks can largely be categorised into high orbit and low orbit. LEO satellites usually orbit at altitudes of 300 to 2,000 kilometres. Compared with high orbit satellites, LEO satellite internet networks have the advantages of low latency and low cost. They can also provide more efficient global coverage, overcoming terrain limitations and ensuring better transmission quality.

The concept of LEO satellite internet network was first proposed by American tech billionaire Elon Musk’s space exploration company SpaceX in 2014. The firm has drafted plans to use 42,000 satellites to replace all ground communication facilities, providing a lower cost satellite broadband service globally. 

As of early August 2024, SpaceX’s Starlink project has launched 6,828 satellites in 183 batches. China has lagged behind in this field. 

As there is a capacity limit of around 60,000 to 100,000 satellites at LEO, applications for orbit and spectrum resources must be made with the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). Moreover, with the ITU’s “first come, first served” policy for orbit and spectrum allocation, global competition for LEO satellite resources has intensified. Countries such as the US, China, the UK, Japan and Russia are all advancing their own LEO satellite network constellation projects. Starlink itself has plans to deploy 42,000 satellites.  

With Starlink leading the pack, China is naturally unwilling to play second fiddle. In 2020, China raised the construction of a satellite internet constellation to a national strategic project for the first time. 

Currently, Chinese firms have filed for more than 50,000 satellites with the ITU. Although the total number of satellites countries have applied for exceeds LEO capacity, the number of satellites actually deployed is still far from reaching saturation.

Satellite powerhouses such as China and the US are all stepping up to implement their LEO satellite networks, and Qianfan embodies China’s hope of catching up to the US’s Starlink.  

The Qianfan project, also called the G60 Constellation, is led by Shanghai’s Songjiang District in collaboration with several institutional investors, with the investment mainly going to Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST). 

SSST had previously completed the launch of five test satellites, and the 18 satellites launched on 6 August make up the first batch for the Qianfan constellation. 

The technical features of the Qianfan constellation include the use of flat-panel high-throughput broadband communication satellites, which have several advantages such as being close to the ground, low cost, low power consumption, wide coverage and low latency. 

The plan is to deploy the first phase of 648 satellites by 2025, establishing an initial global satellite internet system. By the end of 2030, the project will create a Broadband Satellite Multimedia (BSM) network of over 10,000 LEO satellites, providing global users with reliable, low-latency, high-speed satellite broadband internet services.

According to CCTV reports, Lu Ben, senior vice president of SSST, said that the Qianfan constellation has two phases. The first phase is to launch 1,296 satellites, which can interconnect globally, complete global coverage, and provide comprehensive and diversified commercial services. 

Subsequently, the altitude of the satellite construction will be reduced from over 1,000 kilometres in the first phase to 300-500 kilometres, providing more advanced applications such as direct mobile phone connection as well as narrowband and broadband IoT.

Previously, the usual process before the launch of a satellite was component procurement, single-machine research and development (R&D), and production, which would take about three to five years. Due to the large number of satellites in the Qianfan constellation project, the Shanghai Micro Satellite Engineering Center (上海微小卫星工程中心) independently developed and built a satellite intelligent manufacturing platform to speed up R&D efficiency, establishing a standardised modular satellite production line. 

This production line is currently able to produce over 300 satellites per year, and in future will be able to support the launch of 36 satellites. This would meet the needs of the rapid networking and intensive launch of large-scale satellite constellations.

With the launch of the Qianfan Constellation, the scale of China’s commercial aerospace industry chain will also continue to expand. 

Everbright Securities said that according to China’s existing constellation projects, more than 12,000 satellites are expected to be launched from 2023 to 2033. The market space for satellite manufacturing and launching could reach 831.3 billion RMB (US$115.8 billion). The ground equipment market could also reach over 6 trillion RMB, while the satellite service market could reach nearly 5 trillion RMB.

However, the Qianfan Constellation project still faces many technical challenges before it can surpass Starlink. For example, China’s current cost of launching a satellite is approximately US$10,000 per kilogram, with a single low-orbit communication satellite launch costing around US$2 million. In contrast, SpaceX’s cost of launching a single low-orbit satellite is only around US$750,000.

At the same time, the Long March 6A rocket that launched the first batch of Qianfan Constellation satellites exploded and disintegrated in orbit at an altitude of 810 kilometres after releasing the satellites, producing at least 700 pieces of debris. This debris may remain in orbit for a long time, posing a threat to spacecraft in the same orbit.

Hence, China still has a long way to go to solve issues affecting satellite internet construction, such as reducing the costs of satellite launches, recovering rockets, and preventing final-stage rocket explosions.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as ““千帆星座”追赶美国星链”.

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