Has China unveiled its sixth-generation fighter?
China’s military industry is on the fast track at the moment, not least when it comes to developing its latest hardware, including fighter jets and early warning aircraft. Lianhe Zaobao’s correspondent Yu Zeyuan looks into the latest developments.
As 2024 ends, China’s military industry has suddenly ramped up its activity, and unveiled two alleged sixth-generation fighter jets, a KJ-3000 early warning aircraft and the world’s first amphibious assault ship equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system, the Type 076 — all in one go.
These three aircraft models were developed by aircraft companies in Chengdu, Shenyang, and Xi’an respectively, while the Type 076 amphibious assault ship was launched at the Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard in Shanghai, indicating that military enterprises across China are rapidly advancing in the development of high-tech weapon platforms.
The US’s assessment
On 18 December, the US Department of Defense (DoD) predicted in its annual report to Congress on China’s military developments that China’s stealth strategic bomber might not debut until 2030, a projection that left many Chinese military enthusiasts somewhat disappointed.
The DoD also assessed that China is developing a new stealth fighter known as the JH-XX, but did not specify whether it is a sixth-generation aircraft. According to US experts, it would be extremely difficult for China to launch a sixth-generation fighter before 2035.
However, the tailless triangular stealth fighter that was test flown in Chengdu on 26 December indeed possesses some characteristics of a sixth-generation aircraft.
...the US fifth-generation F-22 has achieved a 144:0 kill ratio against fourth-generation aircraft in exercises, and China’s fifth-generation J-20 has achieved a 108:0 kill ratio against fourth-generation jets.
The Washington Post quoted analysts who stated that this advanced aircraft represents a breakthrough in China’s military modernisation. US website The Warzone reported that this new fighter would be able to “loiter for extended periods on station far from home without tanker support…This has real implications for American tankers, airlifters, and airborne early warning and control, and reconnaissance aircraft, as well as allied ships and forces operating at forward locales.” The Economic Times suggested that this aircraft could represent a significant shift in aerial dominance, posing a potential threat to global military powers, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
Generational differences are crucial to the performance and combat effectiveness of fighter jets. Typically, performance differences among jets belonging to the same generation can be offset by the number of aircraft, pilot ability and system combat capabilities. However, if there is a generational gap, later-generation jets can dominate earlier-generation ones. For instance, the US fifth-generation F-22 has achieved a 144:0 kill ratio against fourth-generation aircraft in exercises, and China’s fifth-generation J-20 has achieved a 108:0 kill ratio against fourth-generation jets.
Race to be first
Since the successful test flight of the J-20 in January 2011, China’s military aerospace industry has been on the fast track. Currently, both the US and China have two fifth-generation fighters, and whoever can first develop a sixth-generation fighter will become the new conqueror of the skies.
In November 2023, the US’s B-21 Raider stealth bomber conducted its first test flight and is expected to enter combat duty in 2027. Manufacturer Northrop Grumman claimed that the B-21 is the world’s first sixth-generation aircraft and the “backbone of the future for US air power.”
However, there is debate over whether the subsonic B-21 is truly the first sixth-generation military aircraft globally. The US Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter program, launched a decade ago, has encountered difficulties. As the budget is too high, the US Air Force has announced that NGAD is temporarily shelved, with its future to be decided by the incoming Trump administration.
In terms of appearance and size, the new fighter tested in Chengdu is broadly aligned with next-generation fighter standards.
Despite NGAD’s temporary halt, its design concepts provide some insights into the general outline and performance of sixth-generation jets. These include an ultra-flat aerodynamic shape featuring integrated body and wings with no vertical tails or canards for reduced air resistance and all-around stealth performance, capable of high-speed flight and ultra-long-range strikes with flight altitudes of over 20,000 metres and combat radius of over 1,000 nautical miles (about 1,852 kilometres) and multi-domain awareness, as well as collaborative combat capabilities with other platforms such as drones.
Features of sixth-generation fighter aircraft
In terms of appearance and size, the new fighter tested in Chengdu is broadly aligned with next-generation fighter standards. This aircraft is unprecedentedly equipped with three engines, possibly including a ramjet engine propulsion, indicating superior speed and high-altitude performance compared to existing fifth-generation fighters. It is hard to tell now whether it possesses multi-domain awareness and collaborative combat capabilities with different platforms, but given China’s rapid advancement in communication, radar, drone and long-range strike capabilities, breakthroughs in these technologies can be expected.
“36” suggests the aircraft might be named JH-36 and “011” implies that 11 units of this aircraft might already be built. If true, the speed with which this new jet was developed would indeed be remarkable.
It is also noteworthy that the Chengdu test aircraft is numbered 36011. In accordance with China’s new aircraft development conventions, “36” suggests the aircraft might be named JH-36 and “011” implies that 11 units of this aircraft might already be built. If true, the speed with which this new jet was developed would indeed be remarkable.
The new fighter tested in Shenyang also displayed some features of sixth-generation jets, although the available images are relatively blurry, which made it challenging for outsiders to assess its performance. The simultaneous unveiling of alleged sixth-generation jets by both Chengdu and Shenyang indicated that both companies are eager to come out on top in the race to develop next-generation fighters.
It is not just the aircraft companies from Chengdu and Shenyang which are raring to get ahead. On 27 December, images of the test flight of the KJ-3000 strategic early warning aircraft, developed by Xi’an Aircraft Company, surfaced on Chinese social media.
The KJ-3000 is a new early warning aircraft based on China’s large transport aircraft, the Y-20. It is equipped with a new digital phased array radar, with significant upgrades in detection, anti-jamming and command capabilities as compared to the PLA’s current KJ-2000.
...it cannot be denied that China has begun to move away from imitating other nations in high-tech weapon platforms, and has entered a phase of independent innovation.
For the air force, having early warning aircraft is as important as having advanced fighters. The KJ-3000 will provide powerful intelligence and information resources for aerial combat formations, significantly enhancing combat effectiveness and strike range and providing crucial coverage for future sixth-generation jet operations.
China’s military industry is able to ramp up production due to its complete industrial supply chain, as well as robust manufacturing capabilities. While it remains challenging to define whether the newly unveiled jets by Chengdu and Shenyang are sixth-generation fighters, it cannot be denied that China has begun to move away from imitating other nations in high-tech weapon platforms, and has entered a phase of independent innovation.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国军工开启暴走模式”.
