How Taiwan is bracing for war: A whole-of-society strategy
As Taiwan focused on taking a whole-of-society approach to prepare the military and civilian domains for any contingencies, academic Ghulam Ali deciphers what the recently concluded military exercises can tell us about the island’s defence capabilities.
On 18 July 2025, Taiwan concluded its 41st annual Han Kuang military exercises — the most extensive and ambitious since their launch in 1984. Lasting a record ten days, twice as long as previous iterations, the 2025 drills mobilised over 22,000 reservists for intensive, around-the-clock live-fire operations. For the first time, the exercises were unscripted, simulating a full-scale Chinese invasion and extending deep into civilian urban areas, with tanks, missiles, rocket launchers and troops manoeuvring through city streets.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, donning a military uniform, inspected the exercises.
Several weapon systems debuted during the drills, including domestically produced land-based Sky Sword II air defence missiles, reconnaissance micro-drones, and HF-3 anti-ship missiles, along with imported US-supplied weapons such as High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), TOW 2B anti-tank guided missiles, and Abrams M1A2T tanks.
The exercises were divided into three phases: the first addressed “grey zone” harassment, coercive tactics short of open warfare to test rapid readiness, and civil-military coordination. The second focused on contingency operations, simulating the shift from peace to war and force deployment under heightened threat. The third involved full-scale combat, including joint anti-landing operations, coastal and in-depth defence, and protracted warfare scenarios. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, donning a military uniform, inspected the exercises.
China’s response
As expected, China warned the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government that “independence by force is a dead end”. Senior Colonel Jiang Bin, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defence, described the exercises as a “bluffing and self-deceiving trick” and cautioned that no matter what weapons or drills Taiwan undertakes, it could not stand against China’s military power.
Taiwanese authorities reported daily Chinese military incursions throughout the ten-day exercises, peaking on 17 July with a record 58 aircraft near Taiwan...
As in previous years, China conducted concurrent exercises and intensified incursions. The People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command, responsible for overseeing the Taiwan Strait, held a range of cross-service military drills. Taiwanese authorities reported daily Chinese military incursions throughout the ten-day exercises, peaking on 17 July with a record 58 aircraft near Taiwan, including 45 crossing the median line — an unofficial boundary in the Taiwan Strait. When the exercises started on 9 July, China’s Ministry of Commerce added eight Taiwanese defence-linked firms to its export control list, banning the export of dual-use products.
Taiwan’s defence reforms and heightened cross-strait tensions
The DPP’s dominance in Taiwan’s politics, along with China’s intensified measures towards unification, and the volatile international context, have heightened cross-strait tensions.
Lai, the third DPP president, has maintained a firm stance towards China since taking office in 2024, prioritising Taiwan’s defence. He aimed to reinstate military tribunals for retired officers involved in espionage, and has deported Chinese spouses advocating unification, warned Taiwanese entertainers promoting unification, extended mandatory military service for men from four months to one year, and appointed Wellington Koo as the first civilian defence minister since the DPP returned to power in 2016 to advance structural defence reforms.
In January 2025, Lai’s government approved a defence budget of NT$647 billion (approximately US$19.7 billion), a 6% increase from the 2024 budget. It also planned to increase defence spending from the current 2.45% to 3% of GDP, as well as to allocate an additional NT$300 to NT$500 billion for US weapon procurement over the next five years. These decisions were partly influenced by US President Donald Trump’s push for allies to boost defence expenditures.
Escalating Chinese military pressure
Ahead of the Han Kuang 2025 exercises, China conducted several major drills around Taiwan, including “Joint Sword-2024A” in May, “Joint Sword-2024B” in October, and a large-scale encirclement operation described by some analysts as a quasi-blockade in December. In April 2025, China held “Strait Thunder-2025A” exercise involving the land, sea, air and rocket forces manoeuvring in the vicinity of the main island of Taiwan and the Matsu Islands.
China’s growing military build-up across the Taiwan Strait, coupled with Lai’s election promises to make defence his top priority, prompted the DPP government to take defence to the next stage.
These drills further exemplify China’s escalating and persistent military pressure on Taiwan. China’s growing military build-up across the Taiwan Strait, coupled with Lai’s election promises to make defence his top priority, prompted the DPP government to take defence to the next stage.
US multidimensional support for Taiwan
The US and other Western countries have greatly increased their support for Taiwan. In 2025, at least eight Taiwan-related bills were either passed or actively moving through the US Congress. These bills will allocate over US$1 billion for Taiwan’s security; ease restrictions on US officials’ interactions with their Taiwanese counterparts; support Taiwan’s participation in international organisations; and elevate the status of the head of the American Institute in Taiwan by redesignating the role from “director” to “representative” and requiring senate confirmation, paralleling the process for appointing US ambassadors.
Additionally, the US accelerated the delivery of advanced weaponry. During the exercises, US under secretary of defense for policy Elbridge Colby pressed Japan and Australia to clarify their positions on potential involvement in a US-China conflict over Taiwan. Although the US military did not participate in Taiwan’s exercises, American military personnel already stationed in Taiwan trained Taiwanese forces. The US remained Taiwan’s foremost international security partner.
The whole-of-society approach blurred the lines between military and civilian domains, while the military’s performance will boost morale across society.
The Han Kuang 2025 exercises marked a realism in Taiwan’s strategic community for the first time regarding an invasion by China and the strategy to counter it. The scale, length, transition from scripted to unpredictable scenarios, and deployment of new weapons during the exercises showcased the Taiwan military’s growing readiness. The whole-of-society approach blurred the lines between military and civilian domains, while the military’s performance will boost morale across society.
Lai’s government proved its political commitment to a strong defence. This might increase DPP’s popularity. At the same time, these exercises demonstrated to allies Taiwan’s seriousness about its defence. Taiwan’s increased defence budget and plans to allocate extra resources for the extensive purchases of US weapons align closely with Trump’s policy of urging allies to bear a greater share of defence costs. This, in turn, will help secure more favourable US policies towards Taiwan in terms of legislation and arms procurement. US support will inevitably send a signal to allies for broader strategic support for Taiwan.
Experts believe that China will not stay passive, expecting increased grey zone pressure, more drone use, blocked drills and incursions. Indeed, cross-strait tensions are expected to escalate further.
