Japanese expert: China won’t replicate US Maduro raid
Japanese professor Shin Kawashima notes that the US raid in Venezuela is no precedent for Taiwan, and Beijing is unlikely to replicate such military actions despite regional tensions.
The Trump administration’s military operation in Venezuela, including the capture and removal of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife to the US, sent shockwaves around the world.
Although Washington had long been under scrutiny for escalating pressure on Caracas, citing drug trafficking allegations and taking steps such as seizing vessels departing Venezuelan ports, its decision to resort to force at such an early stage came as a surprise to many countries, including Japan. The shock was compounded by the timing: just hours before Maduro and his wife were detained, Qiu Xiaoqi, a key architect of China’s Latin America policy, was present at the presidential palace as Beijing’s special envoy.
Japan in a difficult position
How is Japan responding to the Trump administration’s actions against Venezuela? Japan has consistently opposed “unilateral changes to the status quo by force”, so it must assert that this action by an ally does not fall under that category, i.e., US action is an exception rather than a breach of the principle Japan normally defends.
Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi stated, “Japan has consistently respected fundamental values such as freedom, democracy and the rule of law. Naturally, principles under international law, including the UN Charter, must be respected.” This explanation aligns with the Japanese government’s longstanding position.
... he reserved judgment on whether the Trump administration’s actions violated international law or constituted a “change of the status quo by force”, thus postponing a conclusion.
Regarding Venezuela, Motegi stated that, even before this incident, Japan held the position that “it is important for democracy to be restored in Venezuela as soon as possible and for the situation to stabilise” due to concerns under the Maduro administration about “human rights issues, flawed elections and the outflow of many refugees, among other things”. Motegi expressed hope that the US attack would further advance the restoration of democracy and stabilisation of the situation in Venezuela.
Then, isn’t America’s action a change of the status quo by force? Various discussions regarding this point are currently underway. Foreign Minister Motegi stated, “It is difficult for Japan to ascertain the precise and detailed facts of this case in a sufficiently objective manner. Therefore, we prefer to refrain from making a legal assessment.”
In other words, he reserved judgment on whether the Trump administration’s actions violated international law or constituted a “change of the status quo by force”, thus postponing a conclusion. Furthermore, Motegi emphasised that Japan’s longstanding policy of “restoring democracy and stabilising the situation in Venezuela” is crucial and will continue, with Japan cooperating with other advanced nations.
On her social media account, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated, “Ensuring the safety of Japanese nationals is our top priority, and we are working closely with relevant countries to address this issue.” She added that Japan has always respected fundamental values and principles, such as freedom, democracy and the rule of law. Takaichi further stated that Japan will continue diplomatic efforts to restore democracy and stabilise the situation. This echoed the sentiments of Foreign Minister Motegi.
Many in Japan have criticised the Japanese government for its lack of clarity, but many believe that this stance is unavoidable given the Japan-US alliance.
Japan needs to stay ambiguous
Many in Japan have criticised the Japanese government for its lack of clarity, but many believe that this stance is unavoidable given the Japan-US alliance. Thus, criticism is not solely focused on the government.
On the other hand, the recent US attack on Venezuela, coupled with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, signals the onset of a new “age of power”. Some in Japan have suggested that this could prompt China to invade Taiwan more readily. However, others believe that the situation is not so simple.
First, the Trump administration is relatively willing to use military force to solve problems, even citing domestic factors. As was the case with Iran, the Trump administration is neither overly cautious nor averse to the use of force. This should be a significant lesson for China.
Could the PLA emulate US operations?
Second, there is the issue of US military capabilities. If the US were to attack Iran or Venezuela, the question would be whether China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could replicate the capabilities of the US military. Another question is how Taiwan’s military strength compares to that of Iran or Venezuela.
Does the PLA have the same offensive capabilities as the US military — particularly in stealth operations to defeat air defence systems and in combat experience for capturing specific individuals? Furthermore, if Taiwan’s military, intelligence, decision making and command-and-control capabilities are superior to those of Iran or Venezuela, then the PLA must have capabilities superior to those of the US military.
Given these considerations, some in Japan doubt that this incident would immediately accelerate or incentivise China to launch a military invasion of Taiwan.
