Pope Leo walks a fine line between China and Trump
Considering Vatican-China relations under the new Pope Leo XIV, Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia foresees a tough road ahead, where the Holy See risks getting caught in the crossfire between China and the US.
Pope Leo XIV inherits the tough task of dealing with China after his predecessor Pope Francis had made an overture to Beijing a key plank of his tenure. Faced with strategic competition with Beijing, the US under President Donald Trump will inevitably scrutinise the China policy of the first American pontiff (who is hardly a sympathiser of Trump’s MAGA movement, to put it mildly), not least keeping a careful eye on how he will handle the delicate issue of the Holy See’s relations with Taiwan.
The 2018 agreement signed by the Vatican and China, last renewed in November for a period of four years, is seen as Pope Francis’s diplomatic masterpiece by his supporters, but a grave mistake by his detractors.
The hidden Vatican-China bishop agreement
According to the deal, whose actual terms are secret, the selection of new Chinese bishops should be shared by the Holy See and the Chinese authorities in an attempt to bridge the divide between China’s state-run Catholic Church and an underground church loyal to the Roman pontiff.
At the moment, facts say 30 new bishops have yet to be appointed, while Chinese authorities have violated the pact several times.
More importantly, the agreement has not stopped the persecution of Chinese Catholics, especially unofficial (underground) ones, who do not want to submit to religious bodies controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Vatican representatives under Pope Francis always said that it is better to have a deal, as imperfect as it is, with China than no engagement at all.
A number of bishops are detained in China, while others have disappeared after their arrest. Then, since 2018, the Chinese regime has adopted a series of regulations that strongly limit religious activities. Beijing recently added new restrictions on foreigners’ religious activities.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s efforts to control and use the Catholic Church are well symbolised by an episode in July 2021, when Bishop Paul Lei Shiyin celebrated the CCP’s birth in the cathedral of Leshan in Sichuan.
Vatican representatives under Pope Francis always said that it is better to have a deal, as imperfect as it is, with China than no engagement at all.
Trump wary of Vatican’s approach
However, Catholic voices in China are increasingly critical about the way the Holy See is carrying on the dialogue with Beijing. They note that many local bishops or priests, as well as senior Chinese religious figures such as Cardinal Joseph Zen or Archbishop Savio Hon, have never been consulted on the bishop agreement.
And while there are Chinese Catholics who express their disappointment about the outcomes of the Vatican-China rapprochement, the controversial deal between the Roman Church and the CCP remains an easy target for the enemies of Pope Francis’s friendly-on-China legacy.
... the new pope could clash with Trump over the future of Taiwan too.
In a climate of growing geopolitical confrontation between the US and China, during his first mandate, US President Donald Trump had pressed the Vatican to scrap the bilateral pact with the Chinese, citing Beijing’s harassment of minorities. It is likely he will do the same with Pope Leo XIV.
The orientation of the Trump administration about the issue looks clear even after reelection. Trump’s pick as US ambassador to the Holy See, Brian Burch, said at his confirmation hearing in the Senate that he would push the Vatican “to resist the idea that a foreign government has any role whatsoever in choosing the leadership of a private religious institution”.
Taiwan issue could be politicised
Against this backdrop, the new pope could clash with Trump over the future of Taiwan too.
The Holy See is one of 12 states that have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Mainland China has carried out an international boycott of the island, considering it a “rebel” province to be reunified with the rest of the country, by force if needed.
As a consequence, the Vatican and China have no formal state-to-state relations. In 1951, two years after it was established, communist China cut its diplomatic relations with the Vatican and expelled the papal nuncio — the Holy See’s diplomatic envoy.
... Pope Leo XIV is likely to avoid any dramatic rupture with China, at least initially...
The Vatican under Pope Francis has reportedly told the Taiwanese that it would have been ready to re-establish relations with Beijing immediately, but the Chinese refused.
But if Vatican’s switch to China were to take place, the US government could view it as a weakening of Taiwan’s international standing and a threat to the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. This as the Trump administration is trying to secure the island diplomatically and militarily with the help of regional partners such as Japan.
Cardinal Robert Prevost has chosen the papal name of a reformist predecessor (Pope Leo XIII), who between the 19th and 20th century advocated a social-Catholic middle way between liberal capitalism and Marxist socialism. Thus Pope Leo XIV is likely to avoid any dramatic rupture with China, at least initially, but he could also strike a more assertive tone with China than that of Pope Francis.
After Pope Leo XIV’s election, former Taiwanese ambassador to the Holy See Matthew Lee revealed that during a meeting with him in 2023, then Cardinal Prevost said he knew well the difference between the democratic island and communist China.
The problem for him is that, just like the European Union, the Holy See risks getting caught in the crossfire between China and the US. The new pope will have to be shrewd enough to replicate, for instance, Southeast Asia’s ability to balance US-China interests while finding the way to make the voice of oppressed Chinese Catholics be heard.
