Pragmatism over politics: Trump’s China thaw?

The Chinese may have breathed a sigh of relief when US President Donald Trump mentioned the word “China” only twice in his inauguration speech on 20 January, both references related to the relatively obscure Panama Canal. Given that Trump had named Marco Rubio — one of the most vocal critics of China — as his secretary of state, and had threatened a massive 60% on Chinese products, China had feared that the Trump administration would ramp up efforts to contain it through more aggressive economic and geopolitical strategies.

However, with the “America First” doctrine dominating his rhetoric, Trump’s speech suggested a potential softening of hostility toward China, within the broader context of a strategic retreat from global affairs and a more focused approach on specific issues like AI and space programmes.

President Trump’s speech reaffirmed his commitment to mercantilist objectives, such as reducing the trade deficit and attracting foreign investment. His words did not resemble a typical script for a second Cold War against China or Russia.

While the reference to William McKinley — the 25th US president (1897-1901), who initiated a period of American imperialism by seizing Guam, Puerto Rico and the Philippines from Spain — could signal a revival of interventionist policies in Asia, the primary focus of Trump’s speech was on strengthening American domestic power and national security. “We will move with purpose and speed to bring back hope, prosperity, safety and peace for citizens of every race, religion, colour and creed,” Trump declared, suggesting a domestic agenda and diplomatic pragmatism.

Despite his aggressive rhetoric on China during the election campaign, President Trump seems to be contemplating a recalibration of the US’s approach toward China after eight years of confrontation under both his first term and President Joe Biden’s administration.

Notably, in his inauguration speech, Trump made no mention of new punitive tariffs on China, nor did he reference the Indo-Pacific strategy that underpins US geopolitical plans targeting the East Asian superpower. His remarks on China’s presence in Panama serve as a McKinley-style warning about distant powers in the US backyard, but the dispute over the Canal is unlikely to significantly impact the broader strategic relationship between the US and China.

By prioritising American interests, Trump advocates for policies aimed at reducing dependence on foreign nations and securing American borders through stricter immigration policies. He admires McKinley’s tariff approach, which did not single out any country but applied high tariffs to all foreign products. McKinley, known as the “Napoleon of Protection”, framed the Tariff Act of 1890, which raised average duties on imports from 38% to 49.5%. By contrast, soon after his inauguration speech, Trump has only spoken about a possible 10% tariff on Chinese products by 1 February, as opposed to the planned 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico.

Since winning the election, Trump has extended several goodwill gestures toward China. He invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration and paused the enforcement of the TikTok ban in the US until early April. Additionally, he gave a warm reception to China’s Vice-President Han Zheng, Xi’s special envoy to the inauguration. Trump also expressed his intention to establish a dedicated communication channel with the Chinese leadership and indicated his desire to visit China within his first 100 days in office.

In response, the Chinese government has signalled its readiness to engage in dialogue and “manage differences” with the new US administration, indicating a mutual interest in avoiding further escalation. “Cooperation between China and the United States benefits both countries, while confrontation harms them both, as the history of China-US relations clearly demonstrates,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.

Historically, President McKinley’s policies played a significant role in shaping US-China relations at the turn of the 20th century. In 1899, McKinley initiated the “Open Door” policy, which advocated for equal trading rights in China and opposed the colonial division of the country by European powers. This policy became a cornerstone of American foreign policy in East Asia for decades, foreshadowing China’s later opening up under Deng Xiaoping in the 1970s. McKinley’s vision sought to prevent China’s “carving up” by colonial powers, supporting both Chinese territorial integrity and equal trading privileges among major powers. This laid the groundwork for improved US-China relations in the first half of the 20th century.

Given the profound changes in East Asia’s power structure, Trump cannot simply replicate McKinley’s policies. However, his admiration for McKinley may point to a more benign attitude toward China, as long as China remains open to American investment and products.

While Trump’s speech struck a relatively moderate tone, internal dynamics within his administration could complicate his approach to China. His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, is a staunch China hawk who has been on China’s sanction list for over four years. Rubio has called China the “most potent, dangerous, and near-peer adversary” the US has ever confronted. Immediately following Trump’s inauguration, Rubio met with counterparts from Japan, India and Australia in the Indo-Pacific “Quad” group, aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the region.

However, even Rubio has begun reaching out diplomatically to China. He recently spoke with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, where he reiterated that Trump’s approach would focus on advancing US interests while putting the American people first. Wang, in turn, expressed hope that Rubio would play a constructive role in the bilateral relationship. This phone call signals the potential for more flexible diplomacy despite the ongoing tensions.

Trump’s openness to dialogue with Beijing reflects his hawkish pragmatism, rooted in his “America First” ideology and transactional approach. His alignment with business leaders like Elon Musk, who have substantial investments in China, may lead to a more realistic stance on US-China relations. Inspired by McKinley’s Open Door policy, Trump may find a business-oriented pathway in his second term that stabilises the bilateral relationship and serves both nations’ national interests.

Related: US-China: Will Trump pull the trigger on 10% tariffs? | Trump, the Panama Canal and US-China rivalry | The significance of China’s representation at Trump’s inauguration