Shadows of conflict: WWII’s enduring impact on China-Russia-Japan relations

World War II continues to cast a long shadow over East Asia’s geopolitics, as seen in recent strategic moves by Russia and China. In the context of Sino-Japanese relations, Japan, which is becoming increasingly central to the US-led Indo-Pacific alliance, is facing mounting pressure from Beijing. 

As Tokyo steps up its security role — for instance voicing support for the Philippines in the South China Sea and declaring that a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency — tensions with China have risen. Despite a diplomatic summit between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in May, relations have continued to deteriorate.

In July, a Japanese destroyer entered Chinese territorial waters during a Chinese naval drill, igniting a diplomatic dispute that remains unresolved. China responded on 26 August by sending a reconnaissance aircraft that briefly violated Japanese airspace, despite risking the activation of US-Japan alliance protocols.

Tensions escalated further around the date of the 79th anniversary of the global fight against fascism (3 September). On 31 August, a Chinese survey vessel entered Japanese territorial waters near Okinawa island, part of Japan’s southwest islands that were previously called Ryukyu Islands — a strategic chain between the East China Sea and the Pacific.

Just weeks later, on 18 September, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sailed through the islands of Yonaguni and Iriomote in Okinawa, temporarily entering the contiguous zone adjacent to Japan’s territorial sea. This followed joint China-Russia naval patrols and China’s participation in Russia’s largest naval drills in three decades, both of which took place in Japan’s immediate neighbourhood.

The Ryukyu Islands, transferred to the Japanese administration after WWII, are now seen by Beijing as a focal point for challenging Japan’s sovereignty. China frames this as an unresolved issue from the post-war order. These provocations, coming just before the anniversary of Japan’s WWII surrender, suggest a coordinated effort by China and Russia to tap into Japan’s wartime legacy, undermining its growing assertiveness in regional security.

For Russia, the WWII narrative is equally potent. On 2-3 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Mongolia, an event largely reported through the lens of Mongolia being the first International Criminal Court (ICC) member to disregard the ICC warrant for Putin. However, what has been significantly underreported is Putin’s participation in commemorating the 85th anniversary of the 1939 Battle of Khalkhin Gol, where Mongolia and Russia jointly defeated Imperial Japan, part of the Axis alliance in WWII.

This event serves more than just a historical commemoration — it underscores the shifting alliances and strategic postures shaping the region today. As Russia and China increasingly coordinate their actions in East Asia, Japan finds itself caught in a geopolitical squeeze reminiscent of a time when the region was divided by the battle lines of World War II.

The Battle of Khalkhin Gol held particular significance in the lead-up to WWII. The Soviet-Mongolian victory over Japan in 1939 forced Imperial Japan to abandon its northern expansion plans, which aimed to flank the Soviet Union in coordination with Nazi Germany.

Instead, Japan shifted its military focus southward towards the Pacific, a decision that eventually led to the Pacific theatre of war and the attacks on Pearl Harbor. Putin’s presence at the commemoration is not merely symbolic; it reminds Japan that Russia continues to view it through a historical lens, and recent actions by Moscow reflect mounting strategic pressure on Japan in collaboration with China.

Russia’s diplomatic engagement in East Asia has ramped up in recent months. Putin’s recent visits to China, North Korea and Vietnam signal a deliberate effort to strengthen ties with key regional players, as Moscow seeks to counter Western pressure in Europe.

With NATO expanding into Finland and Sweden and military support for Ukraine increasing, Russia’s options in Europe are narrowing. Consequently, it is turning its gaze towards the Pacific, applying indirect pressure on Japan through its regional partnerships.

At the core of these manoeuvres is a battle over the narrative of international order. Russia and China position themselves as defenders of the treaty-based post-WWII global framework, opposing what they perceive as a Western “rules-based order” lacking clear legal foundations.

This would be increasingly explicit in the coming year, as the year 2025 marks the 80th anniversary of the global fight against fascism, and the founding of the United Nations, which would be important in legitimising the two countries’ domestic politics and justifying their international behaviours and stances. 

In fact, Beijing, holding the rotating chairmanship of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), has already incorporated this in the agenda, aiming to amplify the SCO voices on the international arena. Presumably, by invoking post-WWII settlements regarding Japan’s defeat, both countries aim to curb Japan’s rising security posture while reinforcing their own status as WWII victors. This framing lends legitimacy to their pressure on Japan and bolsters their influence over the region’s future.

Japan, for its part, faces a complex challenge. As a pivotal member of the Indo-Pacific alliance aimed at containing China, it has taken bold steps to assert its security role. Japan’s naval support for the Philippines in the South China Sea and its growing alignment with NATO over Ukraine have drawn increased scrutiny from both China and Russia. These actions have reignited dormant post-WWII territorial and security issues, bringing them back into the foreground of East Asia’s geopolitical landscape.

Further complicating Japan’s position is uncertainty over the future of its alliance with the US. The Biden administration has reaffirmed its security commitments in the Indo-Pacific, but Washington is stretched thin, managing crises in Ukraine and Gaza, and facing domestic political challenges ahead of the 2024 elections.

The recent redeployment of military assets away from Japan to the Middle East has left a deterrence gap in the West Pacific, creating an opportunity for Russia and China to apply pressure on Japan without immediate US retaliation.

Japan’s internal political dynamics also play a role. With both the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party preparing for the 2025 general elections, the domestic debate over how best to manage relations with China and Russia is intensifying.

Japanese leaders may seek to recalibrate relations with Beijing and Moscow to avoid further escalation, while simultaneously pressing the US for stronger extended deterrence — even as Japan upholds its longstanding Three Non-Nuclear Principles of not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons.

Looking ahead, Japan must strike a delicate balance. It needs to de-escalate tensions with China and Russia while reinforcing its security alliances with the US and NATO. South Korea’s role will also become increasingly important as Japan seeks closer alignment with its regional partner to counterbalance mounting pressure from China, Russia, and a North Korea emboldened by its ties with Moscow. Prime Minister Kishida’s eagerness for a final summit with President Yoon Suk-yeol and Biden reflects this.

However, with US domestic politics in flux — whether under a more isolationist Trump administration or a foreign-policy inexperienced Harris presidency — Japan may find itself increasingly vulnerable to its assertive neighbours. The China-Russia alignment against Japan underscores a complex geopolitical struggle rooted in the unresolved legacies of WWII.

As East Asia becomes a key arena in the global strategic rivalry, Japan must carefully navigate its historical relationships, present alliances and emerging threats. WWII’s shadow continues to shape the region, where history, politics and strategy converge to influence both the present and the future.

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