As TikTok’s fate hangs in the balance, users flock to Xiaohongshu
A wave of TikTok users has unexpectedly flooded Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu, “taking refuge” in the event that a law that could see TikTok banned in the US is not overturned. Is this a sustainable trend and what lies in store for TikTok? Lianhe Zaobao China news editor Yang Danxu gives her view.
“Hi, I’m a TikTok refugee.”
“I don’t know what I’m doing; I’m just pressing some buttons [on the app]. But Xiaohongshu, here I come!”
“This is a great platform; it’d be even better if they have filters.”
In the last few days, foreign bloggers have unexpectedly flooded Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu. What was once an app catered to China’s domestic users, backed by Chinese culture and focused on Chinese-language content has become a bit of an incongruous yet intriguing spectacle.
Self-deprecatingly referring to themselves as “TikTok refugees”, these foreign bloggers are “seeking refuge” on Xiaohongshu following the US government’s potential ban on the platform. Suddenly, it is as if the firewall has crumbled. On a Chinese social media platform typically isolated from the outside world, foreign bloggers are giving flamboyant performances with playful antics and memes, all set to popular Western tunes as background music. Some show off their pets while others simply chat. Still others even go so far as to help Chinese students with their English homework.
Breaking the ice on Xiaohongshu
Many curious Chinese netizens have left comments on the videos of these foreign bloggers, warmly welcoming them to “seek refuge” in Xiaohongshu. In less than two days on the platform and merely three to four videos later, some American bloggers have already amassed thousands of followers. The warm exchanges between Chinese and American netizens in the comments sections of these videos paint a very different picture from the cold relations between their governments.
... the removal of the app from app stores and the cessation of updates will eventually cause TikTok to lose users and gradually disappear from the US social media landscape.
TikTok’s appeal against the sell-or-be-banned order was fiercely debated in the US Supreme Court for two and a half hours on 10 January. US media reported that most justices believe that US national security concerns outweigh the free speech concerns posed by TikTok and its content creators. This also implies that TikTok’s chances of prevailing in this protracted legal battle have further decreased.
If the 19 January deadline is not postponed and TikTok fails to divest from its Chinese parent company ByteDance, the popular short-video app will be banned in the US. While existing users who have already downloaded the app will be able to continue using it, the removal of the app from app stores and the cessation of updates will eventually cause TikTok to lose users and gradually disappear from the US social media landscape.
... the starkly different audience demographics, platform dynamics, algorithms and the inevitable constraints of Chinese censorship and content regulations suggest a bumpy road ahead for this transition.
Stark difference in audience demographics
TikTok currently has about 170 million users in the US. With the uncertain future of the platform, many TikTok creators are flocking to Xiaohongshu. Is this a desperate attempt to find an alternative platform to save themselves, or a defiant protest aimed at the authorities?
Following the influx of US users on Xiaohongshu, some Chinese netizens joked that the platform is probably scrambling to cope with the sudden “tsunami of traffic”. But Xiaohongshu may not be the best alternative to TikTok for these foreign bloggers. Putting aside the obvious language barrier, the starkly different audience demographics, platform dynamics, algorithms and the inevitable constraints of Chinese censorship and content regulations suggest a bumpy road ahead for this transition.
However, these concerns may not be the top priority for TikTok content creators. Some creators have explained that they do not want to switch to Instagram or Facebook, owned by American tech company Meta, and are even less inclined to move to X (formerly Twitter), controlled by Elon Musk. Instead, some have opted to “seek refuge” on Xiaohongshu, a platform very similar to TikTok.
Catharsis, but not necessarily a solution
For many influencers, the government’s administrative orders may lead to the closure of the TikTok platform, destroying the industry ecosystem overnight and significantly reducing the income of those who rely on it. Their “cross-border” revelry on Xiaohongshu may not be about long-term plans but rather an expression of dissatisfaction, sarcasm, and emotional release as TikTok’s potential shutdown looms.
However, divesting TikTok’s US operations would not be easy, involving a complex equity structure that includes both Chinese and US stakeholders.
So, will TikTok’s fate take a turn in the coming days? How can TikTok navigate this situation? Although TikTok has consistently maintained that it will not consider a sale, could this stance waver?
On 14 January 2025, Bloomberg cited anonymous sources that senior Chinese officials have begun discussing contingency plans for TikTok, one of which is selling its US operations to Elon Musk. Musk is seen in China as a successful entrepreneur with close ties to US President-elect Donald Trump, and with experience dealing with the Chinese government through his company Tesla. Some analysts even suggest that if this deal goes through, it could be a good solution — a potential win-win for ByteDance and Musk.
However, divesting TikTok’s US operations would not be easy, involving a complex equity structure that includes both Chinese and US stakeholders. Moreover, after China amended its Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export in 2020, TikTok, whose business model is based on algorithmic recommendations, would need approval from Chinese regulatory authorities to be sold.
If selling is not an option, TikTok’s only hope to avoid the ban would be a delay in its enforcement or a change in the Trump administration’s stance.
On the same day, Caixin cited sources close to TikTok saying that the company has not engaged in any discussions about a potential deal with Elon Musk nor has it discussed a sale plan with Chinese regulators. A TikTok spokesperson also described reports of a possible sale of its US operations to Musk as “pure fiction”.
If selling is not an option, TikTok’s only hope to avoid the ban would be a delay in its enforcement or a change in the Trump administration’s stance. In late December 2024, Trump, who is set to be inaugurated next week, submitted a brief to the Supreme Court, urging a suspension of the ban and explicitly opposing the immediate prohibition of TikTok in the US. This has introduced a new variable in TikTok’s negotiations, with the possibility of the ban being temporarily postponed in the coming days to allow for further discussions after Trump takes office.
This also means that TikTok is likely to become the first topic of negotiation between China and the US after Trump takes office, and a bargaining chip for Trump in negotiations with China. Despite TikTok’s preference to rely on judicial efforts and other tools within the US system rather than on state power, it seems fated to become a pawn in geopolitical negotiations.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “TikTok命运未卜”.
