Why is flood control so challenging for China?

At the recent 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, China released its new ambitious Action Plan on Early Warning for Climate Change Adaptation (2025-2027).

Building on existing climate adaptation plans and strategies, the new action plan outlines four key actions for Chinese authorities to undertake over the next two years: sharing knowledge from national climate risk assessments, launching geostationary satellites for improved disaster monitoring, offering expertise in climate-resilient urban development and enhancing local early warning capabilities. Additionally, China will invest in upgrading infrastructure, providing resources and conducting training to build local authorities’ capacity in disaster response. 

These efforts aim to improve China’s ability to manage climate risks and promote sustainable adaptation at the national level, while also strengthening disaster risk management and community preparedness through improved monitoring, forecasting and early warning systems.

The new plan highlights the growing recognition of the urgent threat posed by climate change, reflecting a heightened recognition of its urgent impacts. This proactive approach comes in response to the severe economic and human costs of recent climate-related disasters. In July alone, extreme weather — primarily heavy rains and floods — caused 76.85 billion RMB (US$10.1 billion) in economic losses, affecting over 26.4 million people, displacing 1.1 million and damaging thousands of homes.

These staggering impacts highlight China’s vulnerability to climate change, with rising coastal flooding, urban waterlogging, droughts and heavy rainfall intensifying climate risks nationwide. Notably, recent extremes — including the highest national temperature on record and Beijing receiving 60% of its annual rainfall in just 83 hours — demonstrate the growing threat. The economic toll is substantial, with flooding alone costing about 1% of China’s gross domestic product annually.

Projections paint an even more alarming picture. By the end of the century, heatwaves could triple, and water scarcity could worsen, deepening regional disparities. Economic losses are expected to soar, with a 1.5°C global temperature increase potentially leading to US$112 billion in direct flooding-related losses — four times the level seen between 2006-2018. Coastal cities like Shanghai face additional risks from extreme high tides. These projections highlight the pressing need for China to prioritise climate resilience and adaptation as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe.

In response to growing concerns over climate change, Beijing has recognised the urgent need for effective adaptation strategies to protect infrastructure and maintain the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s legitimacy. This approach is influenced by Mao Zedong’s belief that “man must conquer nature”, and has led to a focus on climate resilience and infrastructure in national policies, driven by the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts.

Managing extreme weather has long been tied to political legitimacy in China. Historically, failures in this area — particularly flooding — have been seen as signs of a loss of authority, linked to the ancient concept of the “Mandate of Heaven”. This practice dates back more than 4,000 years, to Yu the Great of the Xia dynasty, who is said to have tamed the Yellow River.

Challenges lie ahead. One of the biggest concerns being the potentially high costs of climate adaptation projects. The “sponge city” concept (海绵城市), introduced in 2015 in Chinese cities to manage stormwater through permeable surfaces and green infrastructure, exemplifies these challenges.

Although the central government initially allocated 400-600 million RMB per city involved in the 16-city pilot infrastructure-driven programme, total spending on sponge city projects by 2017 had surpassed US$12 billion, with Beijing covering only 15-20% of the costs. The remainder is shouldered by local governments and the private sector. 

Despite over 1 trillion RMB (US$140 billion) being invested by cities between 2016-2020, these projects have struggled to cope with severe flooding, highlighting concerns about their effectiveness. Notably, in 2021, “historically rare” rainfall led to devastating floods in Zhengzhou, affecting over 14 million people, causing 398 deaths and 53.2 billion RMB (US$8 billion) in economic losses.

However, some critics have argued that the sponge city design, intended to handle one-in-30-year rainfall, proved inadequate in the face of such extremes. Media reports at the time suggested that sponge city infrastructure can handle a maximum of 200 millimetres (mm) of rain per day.

In contrast, Zhengzhou saw rainfall in excess of 200 mm in just one hour. Others note that mismanagement by local officials, who ignored early flood warnings, exacerbated the crisis.

Professor Kongjian Yu, dean of the College of Architecture & Landscape Architecture, Peking University, and a champion of the sponge city concept, said in a recent interview that the fact that cities are flooding shows that they are not creating enough sponge-like infrastructure. From his perspective, many cities started using the term “sponge city” to obtain central government funding, but did not actually invest enough into adequate suitable infrastructure.

Further complicating the situation, local governments already burdened by debt may struggle to prioritise such expensive and long-term climate adaptation projects. In the face of a national economic slowdown, many localities are resorting to asset liquidation to address immediate revenue shortfalls in a process described as “smashing iron pots and selling the steel”. This short-term focus risks undermining long-term climate resilience, as local authorities may prioritise quick fixes over necessary investments in sustainable infrastructure.

As the central government pushes forward with projects aimed at mitigating climate impacts, the widening gap between high-level planning and on-the-ground implementation becomes increasingly apparent, raising concerns about the sustainability and effectiveness of these efforts in addressing climate resilience in cities. Without a unified approach, the effectiveness of China’s climate adaptation efforts will remain in question.

The dangers of fragmented policy and poor coordination between municipalities and regional governments, particularly in flood-prone areas, must be considered too. Recent studies have highlighted this issue, using the example of China’s Yangtze and Pearl River Deltas where the lack of comprehensive, delta-wide plans has led to a fragmented approach to disaster management. Without unified land zoning and prioritised investments across the region, disaster response remains disjointed. 

The consequences of this were seen notably, in the aftermath of the 2023 Beijing floods. For instance, netizens pointed out that government bodies often look after their own jurisdiction, responding in isolation rather than through coordinated regional efforts. In their haste to manage the immediate crisis, efforts to divert floodwaters upstream only worsened conditions in downstream areas.

In the face of the challenging situation, the Chinese government is likely to intensify its efforts to enhance climate resilience in the coming years. Recognising the urgent need for coordinated action, Beijing aims to strengthen local governments’ capacity to address climate change by integrating adaptation strategies into urban planning and infrastructure development. 

In line with this, the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (2022–2035) lays out a framework for resilience, emphasising improved weather monitoring, and bolstered agricultural, water, and urban infrastructure systems. However, the successful implementation of this strategy will require significant investment, coordination across government departments, and a shift in how policies are executed at the local level.

As extreme weather intensifies, China is prioritising disaster prevention and community preparedness but bridging the gap between ambitious plans and on-the-ground implementation is crucial for long-term climate resilience.

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