China and Southeast Asia: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s possible visits in 2025
In the year ahead, says ISEAS researcher Lye Liang Fook, China’s focus on strengthening ties with Southeast Asia looks set to continue or may even be stepped up especially with more turbulence in the US-China relationship expected on the horizon.
As a “good neighbour, good friend and good partner” of China, Beijing considers Southeast Asia a priority in its neighbourhood diplomacy. With continued tensions in China-US relations, Southeast Asia’s importance to China has increased with Beijing calling on these countries to exercise their strategic autonomy, i.e. not to stand with the US against China, and seeking to draw them closer by stepping up cooperation.
Beijing has further relied on head-of-state diplomacy to strengthen its external ties and, in this regard, Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to step up his outreach to Southeast Asia in 2025.
By end-2022, following Xi’s visit to Thailand, Xi had completed his tour of all ten ASEAN member states.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s past visits to Southeast Asia can be divided into two broad categories. One category is related to Xi’s attendance at high-level multilateral forums hosted by these countries. For example, Xi attended the APEC Informal Leaders’ Meeting hosted by Indonesia (2013), the Philippines (2015), Vietnam (2017) and Thailand (2022). He was also present at the African-Asian Summit and the Bandung Conference in Indonesia in 2015, as well as the G20 summit in Bali in 2022 (see table below).
The second category covers Xi’s bilateral visits, usually state visits, to Southeast Asia. By end-2022, following Xi’s visit to Thailand, Xi had completed his tour of all ten ASEAN member states. Not surprisingly, at times, Xi combined his bilateral visits with multilateral events hosted by the respective Southeast Asian countries as had happened in 2013, 2017 and 2022.
Xi’s rare single-country visits underscores China’s interest in the region
More significantly, Xi has made two rare single-country state visits to Southeast Asia. In 2020, he chose Myanmar to be his first foreign stop to underscore the importance China attached to developing ties with a neighbour with a common border. That year also marked the 70th anniversary of China-Myanmar relations.
Another apparent reason was Xi trying to inject momentum into his key overseas initiative as State Councilor Aung San Suu Kyi was chair of the Myanmar government steering committee responsible for implementing activities related to the Belt and Road Initiative. Furthermore, Xi seemed to be lending political support to the civilian government represented by Aung San Suu Kyi by expressing China’s staunch support for Myanmar in following the development path of its own choice. Moreover, Aung San Suu Kyi had earlier made China the first country to visit outside of Southeast Asia in 2016.
His 2023 Vietnam visit underlined the importance China placed on strengthening ties with a Southeast Asian country which, like China, was led by a communist party.
Another rare single-country state visit Xi made was to Vietnam in December 2023. Xi’s previous visits to Vietnam in 2015 and 2017 were part of his tour to other countries. His 2023 Vietnam visit underlined the importance China placed on strengthening ties with a Southeast Asian country which, like China, was led by a communist party.
It also occurred at a time when the Philippines had moved closer to the US and the latter was trying to strengthen ties with other Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam. In fact, Xi’s visit occurred shortly after US President Joe Biden visited Vietnam in September 2023 and upgraded US-Vietnam relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership.
In a show of one-upmanship, China was quick to point out that Xi’s visit was meant to commemorate the 15th anniversary of the China-Vietnam comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, which was Vietnam’s highest level of diplomatic ties. In other words, the state of China-Vietnam relations was a notch higher and had a much longer history than the US-Vietnam comprehensive strategic partnership. Beijing further succeeded in securing Hanoi’s endorsement to build a China-Vietnam community with a shared future.
Visits to Southeast Asian countries in 2025 likely
What can we expect of Xi’s overtures to Southeast Asia in 2025? There were years when Xi did not visit Southeast Asia such as in 2014 (in Asia, Xi’s focus was on South Asia), 2019 (in Asia, Xi’s focus was on Northeast Asia and to some extent South Asia) and 2021 (there were no foreign visits due to the Covid pandemic). However, Xi is likely to visit a few Southeast Asian countries in 2025. One country that comes to mind is Indonesia. Xi is likely to visit Indonesia to reciprocate Prabowo’s overtures to China in 2024.
Last year, Prabowo’s first foreign visit was to China after winning the Indonesian presidential elections in April 2024, and after he was sworn in as president in October 2024. Another reason for Xi’s visit is that Indonesia will host the 3rd Asian-African Summit and the 70th anniversary of the Bandung Conference in 2025 where the global south will dominate. As China regards itself as a champion of the global south, Xi will want to be present as well. Moreover, as Xi had attended the 2nd Asian-African Summit and 60th anniversary of the Bandung Conference in Indonesia a decade ago in 2015, he is likely to turn up for the 70th anniversary celebrations this year.
Another reason for Xi’s possible visit is to lend support to Malaysia as chair of ASEAN in 2025 as China would like Malaysia to steer the ASEAN-China agenda to focus more on cooperation than on contentious issues like the South China Sea.
Another country that Xi may visit in 2025 is Malaysia. Beijing is expected to reciprocate the high-level visits made by Malaysia to China last year to commemorate the 50th anniversary of relations. In 2024, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visited China in November for the 7th China International Import Expo, shortly after Malaysian King Sultan Ibrahim’s state visit to China in September. From China’s side, the only senior leader to visit Malaysia was Premier Li Qiang in June 2024.
Another reason for Xi’s possible visit is to lend support to Malaysia as chair of ASEAN in 2025 as China would like Malaysia to steer the ASEAN-China agenda to focus more on cooperation than on contentious issues like the South China Sea. Furthermore, Prime Minister Anwar has invited Xi to attend the ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council + China Summit that Malaysia will host in 2025. The summit is intended to be a new platform to promote three-way cooperation for mutual benefit, an objective that China likely shares.
In addition, the last time Xi visited Malaysia was in 2013, almost 12 years ago. As the first country in ASEAN to establish diplomatic ties with China, Xi may visit Malaysia to affirm the importance Beijing attaches to its relations with Kuala Lumpur.
Singapore seen as a voice of reason
A third possible Southeast Asian country that Xi may visit in 2025 is Singapore. Relations between China and Singapore have moved well beyond the 2016 low point over differences related to the South China Sea issue and Singapore’s relations with other major powers.
In recent years, Singapore has been viewed by Beijing as a voice of reason including its even-handed stance vis-à-vis the debate on democracy versus authoritarianism amid US-China tensions. Beijing further sees value in holding up its forward-looking, substantive partnership with Singapore and has welcomed Singapore to continue to be a pioneer in cooperation with China. 2025 also marks the 35th anniversary of Singapore-China diplomatic relations. The last time Xi visited Singapore was ten years ago in 2015, on the 25th anniversary of relations. In this regard, it is timely for Xi to visit Singapore.
The above is merely a prediction of Xi’s possible overtures to Southeast Asia in 2025. Whether they occur or how they occur, either together or separately, will depend on more specific factors when the time comes. Whatever the outcome, China’s focus on strengthening ties with Southeast Asia looks set to continue or may even be stepped up especially with more turbulence in the US-China relationship expected on the horizon.
