China’s nuclear submarines and bombers could shift Asia’s balance

China’s development of new nuclear submarines has recently drawn international attention. On 2 March, Randall Schriver, chair of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, told a commission hearing that China is advancing a growing fleet of increasingly capable submarines, unmanned underwater vehicles, seabed sensors, and sophisticated oceanographic mapping programmes. Although the US still enjoys a clear advantage in the undersea domain, he warned that “advantages erode if they are not maintained”.

According to Bloomberg, Rear Admiral Mike Brookes, head of the US Office of Naval Intelligence, told the same hearing that China currently has around 60 diesel electric submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines and six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. 

Brookes added that by 2035, China would have more than 40 nuclear submarines and a total submarine force of about 80 boats. At the same time, the Type 095 nuclear attack submarine and Type 096 strategic nuclear submarine could both enter service before 2030. Brookes warned that this unprecedented expansion would complicate US operations in the Indo-Pacific.

In recent years, China’s military technology has advanced rapidly, with the new generation aircraft carrier Fujian, sixth‑generation stealth fighters such as the J-36 and J-50, the large KJ-3000 strategic early warning aircraft, various hypersonic missiles and a range of advanced drones entering service or making public appearances. Yet China still has two major shortfalls in its arsenal — nuclear submarines and strategic bombers.

China’s current nuclear attack submarine is the Type 093B, and its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine is the Type 094. In terms of displacement, noise reduction and weapons fit, both classes still lag well behind their US and Russian counterparts. Likewise, although China’s H-6 series of strategic bombers has undergone multiple upgrades, it still falls far short of those of the US and Russia.

In February this year, commercial satellites captured images at the nuclear submarine construction base in Huludao, Liaoning, reportedly showing the launch of a new Type 095 attack submarine, sparking widespread interest among Western military observers.

The UK-based Naval News website reported that the Type 095 attack submarine was launched on 10 February at the Bohai Shipbuilding yard in Huludao, and that its displacement may be close to 10,000 tonnes, comparable to the US Virginia-class. It added that the 095 uses new technologies such as an X-tail rudder arrangement and pump-jet propeller, making it China’s first attack submarine to reach world‑class standards.

Chinese military analysts felt that the Type 095’s X-tail layout, which places very high demands on the control system, allows the boat to manoeuvre more flexibly in complex underwater environments and marks a major advance in China’s automation and control technology. 

At the same time, its pump-jet propulsion replaces the traditional propeller and is known to be one of the most effective noise reduction methods. Combined with recent Chinese progress in floating raft vibration isolation and anechoic tiles, the 095’s acoustic signature should be greatly reduced, potentially overcoming the longstanding problem of noisy Chinese nuclear submarines.

As for the Type 096 nuclear ballistic missile submarine, a placard labelled “096” briefly appeared in a report by CCTV’s military channel on a naval wargame exercise earlier this year. External observers took this as a sign that the 096 has been incorporated into the training for combat units, and that it is close to entering service, or could already be so.

At the hearing, Brookes said China’s new generation of nuclear submarines would “incorporate substantial advancements in nuclear reactor design, sensor performance, weapons integration and noise quieting technologies”. The Type 096 is expected to carry JL-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, which he said would “be able to target large portions of the US from protected waters”, fundamentally enhancing China’s “strategic deterrence credibility”.

As for China’s new-generation stealth strategic bomber, the H-20, in March 2024, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force deputy commander Wang Wei told the media that it would be officially unveiled “soon”. He denied that the programme faced any technical bottlenecks and said that the aircraft was something “to be proud of, it is worth the excitement”.

However, the H‑20 has yet to be seen in public. Some analysts argued that stealth strategic bomber design is extremely complex and costly, and that the PLA’s performance requirements for a new-generation bomber may also have evolved, delaying its debut. However, China most certainly has not abandoned the H-20 programme and its appearance is unlikely to be delayed for long.

Against the backdrop of comprehensive China-US rivalry and a hostile world, China is unlikely to slow the pace of its military build-up. Once the Type 095 and Type 096 submarines and the H-20 bomber enter service, Beijing would have plugged its two biggest gaps in strategic weaponry. 

Combined with its leading position in developing sixth-generation fighters, hypersonic missiles and other advanced systems, this is set to gradually reshape the military balance and strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国军队正补齐两大战略装备短板”.

Related: Low cost, high carnage: Robot wolves are China’s latest weapons against Taiwan | China’s military is growing faster than the West can handle