Iran-Israel war: Lessons and hopes from a Chinese academic

On 29 May, during a conference in Tel Aviv, a former Israeli official sought my views on a possible Israeli attack on Iran. I replied with two questions: “If Israel attacked Iran, wouldn’t Iran retaliate against Israel? Unless Israel manages to destroy Iran’s military capabilities in the first strike. But is that even possible?” He admitted that Israel could not achieve that. 

In my speech at the conference, I tried to convince more than 100 Israeli friends in attendance that it would be better for Israel to try to ease relations with Tehran rather than overthrow Iran’s current regime. The audience was not particularly enthused about the suggestion.

Contrast that to a conference in Tel Aviv in 2011. After several Israeli speakers repeatedly warned about the Iranian nuclear threat and the regional nuclear race it might trigger, I posed the question: “It is well known that Israel is the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East. If Israel were to completely dismantle its nuclear weapons, wouldn’t that prevent a nuclear arms race in the region?” The conference hall erupted in murmurs of surprise.

A former Israeli general said that Israel’s nuclear development was for peace, while Iran’s was a regional threat because the Iranian regime, namely the Islamic Republic, was “evil”. Until this day, many Israelis, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, still hold this view. 

Israel’s deep-seated and widespread negative perception of the Islamic Republic of Iran largely stems from Iran’s denial of Israel’s legitimacy as a state. To this day, in the eyes of Iran, Israel is not considered a legitimate country but rather an illegal occupier of Palestinian land.

In maps published in Iran, Israel is marked as the occupied Palestinian territory. In recent years, in my interactions with Iranian friends and on my social media, which is primarily targeted at Iranians, I have repeatedly called on Tehran to recognise Israel as a legitimate state, even if Iran chooses not to establish diplomatic relations with it.

The year 1979 was a watershed moment in Israel-Iran relations. Prior to that, during the reign of the Shah of Iran, although the two countries did not establish formal diplomatic relations, there was a de facto Israeli diplomatic presence in Tehran.

At that time, Iran helped Jews return to Israel and provided oil to the country. In return, Israel assisted Iran in developing its intelligence system, among other things. In the Bible, Jews directly praised Cyrus the Great, the founder of the Persian empire, as a “messianic” figure because he helped Jews return to Palestine and rebuild the Jewish Temple in Jerusalem.

Based on my personal observations in Iran over the past decade, I firmly believe that Iran’s anti-Israel rhetoric today is primarily political propaganda, rather than a genuine desire to annihilate the state of Israel. In fact, more Iranians advocate not going to war with Israel.

However, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his political allies do not share this view. For years, they have continuously emphasised to the Israeli public the “evil” of the Islamic Republic, propagating the idea that if given the chance, this regime would truly push Israel into the sea. As a result, in their eyes, the struggle between Israel and the Islamic Republic is a life-or-death battle, with no possibility for compromise with the current Iranian regime.

Largely, the official narratives from both Iran and Israel have gradually created an atmosphere of intense confrontation between the two countries. Moreover, the struggle between them has had a noticeable impact on third parties. 

Personally, due to my visits to Iran, I was subjected to nearly an hour of security checks each time I entered Israel in 2019. At the same time, because of my visits to Israel, some in Iran had doubts about me. I had planned to go to Iran after the Israeli-Iranian war, but an Iranian friend expressed concern that my previous trip to Israel before the war might cause me trouble. As a result, I now have to reconsider whether I should go to Iran with my family during the upcoming summer.

This is also the case at the national level. For instance, after the 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement was signed between China and Iran in 2021, Israel became more dissatisfied with Beijing. Similarly, whenever China engages in friendly relations with Israel, Iran becomes increasingly concerned. Indeed, it is difficult for Middle Eastern countries, often at odds with each other, to understand how China is able to have friendly bilateral relations with countries in the region.

After Israel launched a war against Iran on 13 June, the international community closely watched China’s response to the conflict, particularly after the US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities. It would have been difficult for Beijing not to take the situation seriously, especially considering the potential consequences of US involvement in the war. Will China assist Iran? If so, how? Will there be direct military support? These are questions that I was asked by several foreign media outlets.

Fortunately, after the Trump administration carried out bombings in Iran, it quickly withdrew from the war. Israel and Iran also soon announced the end of the conflict. This is not only a blessing for the warring parties, especially their people, but also a relief for China.

The war between Israel and the US against Iran ended with all three sides declaring victory. Indeed, they all demonstrated their capabilities in the war: Israeli fighter jets freely flew in and out of Iranian airspace; Iranian ballistic missiles successfully hit key targets within Israeli territory; American bombers took off from the US, carried out bombings in Iran and safely returned to the US. There is hardly any other country in the world today that can achieve such long-range bombing.

However, the losses and negative impacts of the war on both Israel and Iran are evident. Some of the places destroyed in Tehran, Tel Aviv and Haifa are familiar to me, and I even just recently visited them.

Iranian officials said on 25 June that 627 people died and 4,870 were injured. On the Israeli side, at least 28 people were killed, and over 3,000 were injured. Millions of people were forced to evacuate Tehran during the war. Israeli citizens spent frequent and prolonged periods in air-raid shelters and other bunkers. Iran’s heavily funded nuclear facilities suffered significant damage. The so-called myth of Israel’s “invincibility” can be said to have been shattered.

It is conceivable that after the war, the resentment of the people in both countries towards their respective leaders would intensify. If even after this war, decision makers do not make any changes, that would truly be a greater tragedy for both nations. Especially for Iran, it is shameful that Israeli fighter jets flew almost freely in Iranian airspace. How can Iran make itself stronger? Iranian decision makers must seriously think about this question. Reform cannot just be spoken with words, but must be implemented with practical measures.

In contrast, President Trump did gain some leverage. Through this war, Israeli decision makers will know more clearly that without direct US involvement, Israel simply cannot handle Iran on its own. Therefore, it will be much harder for Prime Minister Netanyahu to strongly oppose whatever President Trump plans to do next.

After being bombed by the US, Tehran should know that President Trump can directly attack Iran when necessary. Therefore, it would be difficult for Tehran to ignore President Trump’s negotiation proposals. I firmly believe that, at present, negotiations between Tehran and the US are the most effective means to resolve Iran’s predicament, because otherwise it will be difficult to lift sanctions.

Overall, the second Trump administration’s Middle East diplomacy has been quite successful. Although the Israel-Iran war is a disruptive episode, I personally still believe that the trend of a thaw in US-Iran relations continues. Once Washington completes this mission, it will have a significant and positive impact on the political and security landscape of the Middle East.

However, we should not be pessimistic about China’s prospects in the Middle East either. Middle Eastern countries are becoming increasingly autonomous in their strategies, with stronger development aspirations. In their foreign policy, they are not aiming to choose sides between China and the US, but rather to maintain a balance between the world powers.

Even in the case of Israel, can it fully entrust its fate to the US? Just look at the growing criticisms within the US towards Israel — it is becoming harder for Israelis to remain indifferent to this. Even after relations with the US are thawed, can Tehran’s decision makers be as pro-American as the Shah of Iran? The recently concluded war clearly demonstrates that even during negotiations between the two countries, the US would still resort to military strikes against Iran. A country like this is unlikely to gain much trust from the Iranian people, let alone Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which have been pursuing diplomatic diversification for many years. 

In short, the Middle East is not a region that can be controlled by external powers such as the US or China. It belongs to the people of the Middle East, and the influence of outside actors is gradually diminishing. Ultimately, the region’s fate — its happiness or misfortune — rests in its own hands.

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