Japan-China relations no longer important: A drastic change in Chinese public opinion
Analysing latest findings from the Genron NPO survey of respondents from Japan and China, Japanese academic Shin Kawashima finds that while Japanese sentiment towards China remains negative, Chinese sentiment towards Japan has dropped more sharply this year in a dramatic shift.
Genron NPO, a Japanese nonprofit organisation, recently announced the results of the Japan-China Joint Public Opinion Survey conducted in both Japan and China. This survey has been conducted for nearly 20 years since 2005 and is an important source of information on public opinion trends in Japan and China. The survey was conducted between October and November 2024 with a sample size of approximately 1,000 in 50 locations in Japan and 1,500 in major cities in China.
On the Chinese side, unfavourable impressions of Japan increased dramatically from 62.9% to 87.7%, while favourable impressions dropped significantly from 37% to 10.6%.
China’s negative sentiment towards Japan rising
The results of this survey show that Japanese sentiment toward China remains poor, with 89% of respondents saying they have a poor impression of China. This is a very high figure, although it is down from 92.2% in the previous year. There were concerns about how the Japanese child murder case in Shenzhen and the Japanese child attack case in Suzhou would affect the figures, but in any case, over 90% of respondents had already earlier indicated their negative sentiments towards China.
The bigger change, rather, is the dramatic deterioration in Chinese sentiment toward Japan. On the Chinese side, unfavourable impressions of Japan increased dramatically from 62.9% to 87.7%, while favourable impressions dropped significantly from 37% to 10.6%. 78% of Chinese say their feelings toward Japan have worsened over the past year. In Japan, only 29% of people said their impression of China had worsened.
In other words, there is a big gap in the understanding that Japan and China have of each other’s country. Asked for their sense of the current China-Japan relationship, 75% of Chinese respondents said they thought it was bad. In 2023, the figure was 41%, which shows that the view that Japan-China relations have deteriorated over the past year is extremely strong in China.
It is an understanding that although they do not like each other, each understands the importance of the relationship with the other. However, by 2024, this has broken down significantly, especially in China.
In Japan, the opposite is true, with the number of people responding that Japan-China relations are bad declining from 68% in 2023 to 53% in 2024. Regarding the future of Japan-China relations, the pessimistic view that they would get worse has also worsened significantly in China, rising dramatically from 40% in 2023 to 75% in 2024. The opposite is true for Japan, where pessimism is on the decline.
Japan-China relations no longer important
Although sentiments in Japan-China relations have never been good, they have been characterised by mutual recognition of the importance of the Japan-China relationship. It is an understanding that although they do not like each other, each understands the importance of the relationship with the other. However, by 2024, this has broken down significantly, especially in China.
In 2023, 60% of Chinese respondents said that Japan-China relations were important. In 2024, however, this number dropped dramatically to 26%. In Japan, the opposite is true, with 65% in 2023 and 67% in 2024 remaining almost unchanged. This change on the Chinese side is a truly dramatic shift, the first since the survey began in 2005.
There has also been a sharp increase in the perception that Japan and the US are military threats, with the US rising from 57% to 87% and Japan from 50% to 66%.
What do we make of this sudden change in Chinese feelings toward Japan? What changes have occurred in Chinese perceptions of Japan over the past year?
Japanese ‘militarism’ a concern
This survey reveals a sharp increase, from 33% to 48%, in the number of Chinese citing Japanese “militarism” as a concern regarding the state of Japanese society. There has also been a sharp increase in the perception that Japan and the US are military threats, with the US rising from 57% to 87% and Japan from 50% to 66%.
There have also been changes in perceptions of areas with a risk of military conflict erupting, such as an increase in attention to the South China Sea from 15% to 24%. Regarding Taiwan Strait tensions, while both Japan and China perceive a decreased likelihood of conflict, the number of Chinese attributing the tension to the US and Japan has jumped from 29% to 47%. Considering responses citing either Japan or the US individually, the increase is even steeper, from 83% to 95%.
In Japan, the number of people who believe that China is to blame has remained stable at around 60%. In addition, the number of Chinese who believe that Japan-China relations will not improve unless historical issues are resolved has increased from 32% to 43%.
This clearly indicates a growing sentiment in China favouring hostility or distance over dialogue with Japan, the US and other nations.
Shifting Chinese discourse about Japan and US
The change in China’s perception of Japan is remarkable. Regarding Japan-China cooperation amid the US-China conflict, the number of people who said that Japan-China cooperation should be promoted while managing the US-China conflict increased in Japan, but in China, it decreased from 55% to 27%.
Conversely, the number of Chinese advocating for distance between Japan and China has surged from 22% to 59%. This clearly indicates a growing sentiment in China favouring hostility or distance over dialogue with Japan, the US and other nations.
This yet again represents the first major shift since 2005. Of course, one could argue that the people surveyed change from year to year, making direct year-to-year comparisons potentially problematic. One could also question the validity of the survey itself.
Nevertheless, the results of this survey show that in China, perceptions of Japan and views of Japan and the US have deteriorated significantly over the past year. Considering that there has been no significant change in Japan’s attitude toward China, this shift in Chinese sentiment likely stems from internal Chinese discourse rather than any actual change in the bilateral relationship.
... it may indicate that public opinion on Japan-China relations, especially among the Chinese, has reached a tipping point. This could suggest a growing disregard for the importance of bilateral relations.
Deterioration reaching a tipping point
Recent violent attacks against Japanese children in Shenzhen and Suzhou have been linked to inflammatory anti-Japanese rhetoric on Chinese social media, including accusations that Japanese schools are spy training facilities. These online narratives may be influencing Chinese public opinion about Japan and Western countries.
While it is difficult to draw conclusions from just one year, if this trend continues, it may indicate that public opinion on Japan-China relations, especially among the Chinese, has reached a tipping point. This could suggest a growing disregard for the importance of bilateral relations.
The results of this survey, released just as the new Shigeru Ishiba administration has taken power in Japan and discussions about improving Japan-China relations have finally begun, are indeed a major shock to Japan-China relations. Previously, despite low positive perceptions, both countries acknowledged the importance of their relationship. This new data challenges that mutual recognition.
