Planes, missiles, submarines: Southeast Asia’s quiet arms race?
A slew of arms procurement deals in Southeast Asia has raised eyebrows on whether the region is engaged in an arms race. Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Claudia Liao finds out from academics that these military upgrades may have more to do with prestige than capability.
Amid intensifying China-US strategic competition and persistently tense conditions in the South China Sea, Southeast Asian countries have in recent years signed a series of new arms procurement contracts, covering fighter aircraft, cruise missiles and even submarines.
Observers note that the region has not yet entered a classic arms race; rather, most countries are “filling the gap” through military modernisation. However, defence budget constraints and interoperability issues arising from multi-source procurement may pose challenges to some nations’ modernisation efforts.
In recent years, Indonesia has procured fighter jets from multiple countries: in 2022, it ordered 42 Dassault Aviation Rafale fighter jets from France, and last year purchased 48 KAAN fighter jets from Turkey to replace its ageing air force fleet. Indonesia is also preparing to acquire J-10 jets from China, and may purchase fighter aircraft and drones from Pakistan, underscoring its preference for diversifying arms sources and avoiding overreliance on any single supplier.
In 2024, the Philippines announced plans to spend 2 trillion pesos (about US$35 billion) over the next decade on military modernisation, including the acquisition of medium-range missile systems and radar, as well as submarines, fighter jets and naval vessels. Manila also signed a contract last year to purchase 12 South Korean-made KAI FA-50 fighter jets.
Amid growing global instability, many Southeast Asian countries have increased defence spending and accelerated military modernisation, prompting questions over whether an arms race is emerging in the region. According to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, total spending by Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam on defence procurement and research and development rose by US$2.7 billion between 2022 and 2024, reaching US$10.5 billion.
Not a traditional arms race
Interviewed academics generally believe that, although some Southeast Asian countries may have engaged in “prestige racing”, the region as a whole has not seen a classic arms race characterised by tit-for-tat competition aimed at achieving overwhelming military superiority.
“... you’re essentially seeing the retirement of obsolete systems and the acquisition of newer systems to replace them. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be an arms race per se.” — Bernard Loo, Senior Fellow, RSIS, NTU
Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told Lianhe Zaobao that, by definition, an arms race is a competitive dynamic in which two or more countries continuously increase defence spending as a percentage of GDP and seek to outdo one another in military capability. “We don’t see that in Southeast Asia,” he noted.
Bernard Loo, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University (NTU)’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), concurred, “For many of them [Southeast Asian countries], modernisation was a long overdue process; you’re essentially seeing the retirement of obsolete systems and the acquisition of newer systems to replace them. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be an arms race per se.”
He added that, from a historical perspective, there has at times been a degree of competition among Southeast Asian countries in arms procurement, but in essence it has been closer to “prestige racing”. He cited an example from years ago: after Singapore announced the purchase of F-16 fighter jets, Malaysia followed by acquiring Mikoyan MiG-29 and McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornet aircraft. Some observers believe this was partly driven by considerations of regional military balance and national prestige.
“I would argue if there’s competition, the competition is really for prestige more than anything else,” he opined.
... the primary driver of the region’s current arms build-up is the situation in the South China Sea, which is the most important security factor for consideration when countries purchase weapons, followed by the Taiwan Strait. — Beni Sukadis, Senior Consultant, Marapi Consulting & Advisory
South China Sea and Taiwan Strait: key security drivers
Beni Sukadis, a senior consultant at Indonesian firm Marapi Consulting & Advisory, said that for Southeast Asian countries — especially Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam — increasing defence spending would mainly be for the purpose of advancing military modernisation, in turn enhancing capabilities in response to security pressures in the South China Sea.
He felt that the primary driver of the region’s current arms build-up is the situation in the South China Sea, which is the most important security factor for consideration when countries purchase weapons, followed by the Taiwan Strait. In his view, Indonesia’s military also regards the Taiwan issue as one of the potential sources of regional instability.
Sukadis predicted that defence expenditure and arms purchases in Southeast Asia would continue rising. He explained, “We call it a buying spree; we buy weapons everywhere. The trend is already there. The direct consequence would be the increase in the defence budgets for the various countries”.
Storey likewise noted, “Tensions in the South China Sea are definitely a driver for the military modernisation programmes of the Southeast Asia claimants, especially Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.”
Loo stressed that arms procurement itself also serves diplomatic and hedging functions. Southeast Asian countries maintain strategic autonomy and avoid dependence on a single supplier by diversifying their sources of weapons. Indonesia’s traditional non-aligned posture has led it to adopt a strategy of multi-market purchases. By contrast, the Philippines buys as much as possible from the US and its allied ecosystem to maintain a consistent technological standard and system.
“Buying equipment from several different countries creates interoperability problems and becomes expensive as it creates multiple training, logistical and maintenance streams.” — Ian Storey, Senior Fellow, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute
Interoperability challenges
All three academics interviewed agreed that buying weapons from multiple sources could pose interoperability challenges for military modernisation.
Storey commented, “Buying equipment from several different countries creates interoperability problems and becomes expensive as it creates multiple training, logistical and maintenance streams. Indonesia is likely to face this problem if it goes ahead and buys fighter jets from four or five countries.”
Sukadis pointed out that Southeast Asian states such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia generally face budget constraints, which could slow the pace of their military modernisation.
Recent reports said that Indonesia’s longrunning negotiations with US firm Boeing over the purchase of F‑15 fighter jets have collapsed because the two sides could not agree on price. Some analysts believed insufficient budget was one of the key reasons for the deal falling through.
Loo added that global economic conditions affect budget space in each country, while changes of government can also alter priorities. All these factors could have an impact on long-term procurement plans.
As for US President Donald Trump’s call for allies to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP, academics generally felt that Southeast Asian countries would not follow blindly — what matters is that each state bases its procurement on its own security needs and fiscal capability. Buying only what is essential is the pragmatic approach.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “东南亚国家为何纷纷增购先进武器？”.
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