Trump’s Gaza plans: A Middle East headache for China?

President Donald Trump’s stunning proposal to resettle most of Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians in Egypt, Jordan or any other country willing to accept them has generated shockwaves, rivalling even his past controversial calls to acquire Greenland or take control of the Panama Canal.

While Arab and Muslim nations, including Indonesia, have firmly rejected the idea, Chinese diplomats have also joined the chorus of condemnation, denouncing the plan as a blatant violation of international law. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, “Gaza belongs to the Palestinian people. It is an inalienable part of the territory of Palestine. China firmly supports the legitimate national rights of the Palestinian people, believes that “the Palestinians governing Palestine” is an important principle that must be upheld in the post-conflict governance of Gaza, and opposes the forced displacement of the people of Gaza.”

In a recent face-to-face meeting at the White House, King Abdullah II of Jordan “reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank” and called for rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation.

Yet opposition alone is unlikely to deter Trump. His “deal for a Gaza Riviera” was laid out right before his first guest back in the White House, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It was neither subtle nor cautious. It was the opening shot of a plan that could redraw the map of the region or set it ablaze.

The widespread outrage over Trump’s proposal may accelerate China’s strategic engagement in the Middle East. Advancing such a plan could push Saudi Arabia further away from normalising ties with Israel, strengthening Beijing’s position as a counterweight to US and Israeli influence. At the same time, growing frustration over Western inaction on Palestinian rights is amplifying China’s global south narrative, but rhetoric alone will not be enough to tilt the balance in Beijing’s favour. 

Since the start of the war in Gaza, Beijing’s criticism of Israel’s actions has aligned with a broader wave of global condemnation, driven by the immense humanitarian toll and escalating security spillovers. Before the 7 October attacks, Israel had consistently prioritised its relationship with Washington over Beijing, but economic and technological cooperation, particularly in defence, remained an open avenue despite US criticism. 

Today, China faces a delicate challenge in recalibrating its ties with Israel. Beijing has historically maintained a careful balance in its relationships with Israel, Iran and the Gulf states. However, Beijing’s initial refusal to explicitly condemn Hamas and other Iranian-backed militant groups was widely perceived in Israel, even among pro-China analysts, as a betrayal.

This has deepened Israeli distrust toward Beijing, casting its regional role in an increasingly sceptical light. What was once seen as balancing diplomacy, such as China’s brokered detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, is now viewed as a calculated move that contradicts its longstanding non-interference policy.

Instead of a stabilising force, many in Israel now see China as actively meddling in regional dynamics. A case in point is the controversy surrounding TikTok, which came under scrutiny for allegedly hosting anti-Israel content. The backlash prompted senior representatives of the platform to visit Tel Aviv and deny accusations of algorithmic bias against Israel. 

Paradoxically, despite the geopolitical turmoil, Trump’s real-estate-driven realpolitik vision for Gaza’s reconstruction could find unexpected support, even in Egypt and Turkey. Several construction firms are already positioning themselves for lucrative contracts to clear debris and rebuild Gaza. 

As China evaluates the potential impact of the second Trump presidency amid ongoing tensions with Washington, and as Turkey solidifies its position as a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Beijing faces growing pressure to carefully navigate its role in the region. Recognising the stakes, newly appointed Chinese ambassador to Israel Xiao Junzheng, a seasoned diplomat with prior experience in the Middle East, is already warning of the broader security fallout, emphasising that stability must be at the core of any peace and development efforts. 

The question now is whether the US can give Saudi Arabia enough diplomatic and security cover to accept normalisation with Israel. That remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Trump is not standing still. Sanctions are already being dangled over Arab leaders if they resist his real estate vision for the future of Gaza. His Middle East envoy has wasted no time, meeting in Saudi Arabia with a key figure in the Palestinian Authority. Riyadh brokering the meeting is already a telling move.

As China navigates this shifting landscape, it has the necessity to balance its ambitions in the Middle East with the risks of alienating Israel — an increasingly difficult task as regional power dynamics evolve in unexpected directions prone to sudden Trump-style U-turns.

Related: China’s Middle East strategy in the Trump era: Navigating uncertainty | China struggles for real influence as Middle East crisis deepens