US ally management is stronger than ever amid global turmoil

Some Chinese commentators argue that the US lacks the ability to effectively manage its allies, citing its failure to prevent the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, I beg to differ — the US’s ability to manage its allies remains intact and has actually strengthened.

While the ongoing Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars have significantly influenced the US’s diplomatic strategy, their impacts have not been entirely negative, particularly in the case of the latter.

The Russia-Ukraine war has positively strengthened US ties with its allies. First, American leadership within NATO has been reinforced, not diminished. The Russia-Ukraine war marks the first large-scale war initiated by Russia against a European country since the end of World War II, presenting a direct and serious security threat to western and northern European countries for the first time in over 70 years. As a result, NATO member states in Europe have become increasingly reliant on the US for security, further solidifying American leadership in the alliance.

Second, these countries have increased their military budgets. The conflict has enabled the US to achieve the 2% GDP defence target for European NATO members — an aim the previous Donald Trump administration failed to realise despite “maximum pressure”, and one that the current Biden administration had also been unable to meet until this point.

Third, NATO’s successful expansion. The Russia-Ukraine war prompted Sweden and Finland to swiftly abandon their longstanding non-alignment policy and ultimately join NATO. As such, the number of US allies in Europe has increased rather than decreased.

Fourth, closer US-Europe economic and trade relations have been forged. The Russia-Ukraine war is a classic proxy war, with Ukraine acting as a proxy supported by the US. Its goals are to contain Russia’s resurgence as well as to prevent overly close economic ties within Europe, which would weaken US economic influence in the region.

Following the Russia-Ukraine war, European NATO members have become more dependent on the US in the energy sector, while their economic ties with Russia have dropped to a freezing point. This shift has strengthened the US’s economic influence over these allies.

With the US investing more strategic resources in the Indo-Pacific region, its network of allies and partners has achieved new breakthroughs in both breadth and depth.

In terms of breadth, the US has turned India into a quasi-ally or de-facto ally on top of its five treaty allies — Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand. Although the two countries have not signed a formal military alliance, they have fulfilled corresponding responsibilities.

By 2020, the US had already signed with India four agreements typically only signed between military allies, including the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement. As such, the US has roped in India, a country that has long maintained a policy of non-alignment, into its fold to jointly counterbalance China, marking a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

In terms of depth, the US’s increased ability to manage its allies is reflected in two areas. Firstly, at the bilateral level, there have been new developments in the relationships between the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.

US-Philippines relations took a new turn after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr took office in 2022. The Philippines aligned itself with the US in the context of the US-China rivalry, resulting in an increase in American military bases in the country from five to nine.

Meanwhile, continued tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea are both a result of developing US-Philippine relations and an important factor for its continued strengthening.

Like Marcos Jr, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol also leaned towards the US diplomatically after taking office in 2022, and swiftly improved its relations with Japan. This move cleared obstacles for the US in managing the most complex alliance relationships in the Indo-Pacific region. 　　

Next, at the multilateral level, the US has woven an unprecedented network of allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region. Even the former Trump administration, which was notably averse to multilateral relations and favoured bilateral ties, made significant contributions in this area.

The dormant Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) was revived under the Trump administration which came into power in 2017, laying the groundwork for Biden to develop this dialogue mechanism into a substantive organisation. At the recently concluded Quad leaders summit held at Biden’s high school alma mater on 21 September, cooperation between the coast guards of the four countries was launched for the first time. Fudan University professor and South Asian expert Lin Minwang thinks that the Quad mechanism has gradually made the impossible possible since its restart.

On 15 September 2021, the US, the UK, and Australia jointly announced the formation of AUKUS, a partnership focused on security cooperation with the primary goal of assisting Australia in building a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. This move strengthens US military dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.

Also, joint military exercises between the US, Japan and South Korea have achieved significant breakthroughs following substantial improvements in Japan-South Korea relations. This April, the US, Japan and the Philippines have also held their first summit. In 2023, a new minilateral group “Squad” was also formed among the US, Japan, the Philippines and Australia, with the four defence ministers having met last year and this year.

In addition to strengthening its network of allies and partners in the military sphere, the US has also made new achievements in the economic sphere. To boost US economic influence in the Indo-Pacific region, the Biden administration formally launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) in May 2022. At the ministerial meeting this year, three agreements covering the clean economy and the fair economy were also signed. US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo pointed out that the IPEF’s “vision has become a reality”.

In the energy sector, the US established the I2U2 Group along with India, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates in 2022. At the G20 summit in New Delhi in 2023, Biden formed the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor to counter the influence of the Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

Although the US has limited options to address the chaos in the Middle East caused by the Israel-Hamas conflict, it does not mean that its influence over its Middle Eastern allies has weakened. More importantly, in the most important geopolitical landscape of Eurasia, the US’s influence over its network of allies and partners did not weaken but strengthened as never before. 　　

Among the three core tools of American hegemony — the dollar, the military and its allies — only its allies fall under soft power and smart power, which is relatively easy to overlook and prone to misjudgement. At the federal government level, there has always been a strong consensus that the US has an “unrivalled network of allies and partners”, which is a common tactic used to maintain its hegemony. Since the end of the Cold War, the overall trend has been an increase in the number of US military allies, with US alliances strengthening rather than weakening.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “美国管理盟友能力进一步增强”.

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