From drought to downpour: Climate change sounds alarm bells in northeast China

Over the past five years, Liu Xia (pseudonym), who runs a guesthouse in Beijing’s Miyun district, has been noticing a marked increase in heavy rains. Every July and August, she has had to urge her guests to cancel bookings due to rain alerts. While she has gained some experience in handling severe weather, nothing prepared her for the heavy rain late last month.

At 1am on 27 July, after days of heavy rain, a small river near the guesthouse suddenly surged, flooding the courtyard. In that critical moment, Liu rushed from house to house, waking and evacuating dozens of guests to safety.

She told Lianhe Zaobao, “After we evacuated, the whole village was flooded. My hands and feet were still trembling for a long time afterward.”

That heavy rain served as a wake-up call for Liu and many others affected: in recent years, extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent in Beijing and across northern China, threatening livelihoods and lives.

In July 2021, a record-breaking rainfall in Henan province triggered massive flooding, leaving 398 people dead or missing. A particularly shocking incident occurred when Zhengzhou’s Metro Line 5 was severely flooded, killing 14 passengers.

In July 2023, Typhoon Doksuri brought rare heavy rainstorms and floods to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Over four days, Beijing recorded its heaviest rainfall in 140 years, with at least 60 fatalities.

In July 2025, the region was hit again by extreme rain, with some areas receiving over 600mm of rainfall within days — equivalent to a typical year’s total. At least 44 people died in Beijing and eight in Hebei, with one of the worst damages occurring in Beijing’s suburbs, like Miyun.

These devastating rainfalls have washed away the long-held belief that northern China is dry. Liu said, “In recent years, the weather has been humid, scorching, and often stormy — it feels more like the south now.”

Abnormal weather in northern China is closely linked to climate change. Kong Feng, head of the public administration and development management department at China Agricultural University’s College of Humanities and Development Studies, explained that global warming increases the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture, since “the higher the temperature, the greater the sponge effect in the atmosphere”. This makes it easier for heavy rainfall to occur in summer.

However, Kong pointed out that while summer rainfalls in the north are becoming more intense, spring and autumn rainfall is decreasing, creating a “climate whiplash” phenomenon, where the weather rapidly shifts from one extreme to the other.

Research also shows that as global warming raises sea temperatures, storm activity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is moving northward, allowing typhoons that usually weaken over colder northern waters to last longer, triggering extreme weather in northern China.

These factors have prolonged the flood control period of late July to early August in northern China, with increasing rainfall intensity and frequency. Despite strengthened disaster prevention systems in northern cities, each extreme storm still reveals new vulnerabilities.

Ma Jun, director of the Institute for Public and Environmental Affairs, noted in an interview that northern cities have been learning from past experiences in recent years. For example, they have improved drainage capacity to prevent urban flooding, enhanced early warning and emergency response systems, and installed more weather-resistent flood monitoring equipment in areas prone to flash floods.

While these measures have indeed helped, this year’s heavy rains in Beijing were concentrated in the city’s northeastern suburbs. Ma pointed out that these areas have faced fewer extreme storms in recent years, so public awareness of flood risks remains relatively low. Ultimately, the accuracy of forecasts regarding where and when intense rainfall will hit still needs improvement. As Ma noted, “Precise forecasting of extreme rainfall is a global challenge.”

As for China’s “sponge city” initiative — introduced a decade ago to boost urban water absorption — Ma believes it mainly addresses routine urban flooding caused by poor drainage in built-up areas. But when it comes to extreme rainstorms not seen in 50 or even 100 years, relying solely on increased vegetation and soil infiltration is not enough — comprehensive measures are needed.

After the recent devastating floods in Beijing’s suburban areas, Kong believes China’s disaster prevention and mitigation efforts should place greater emphasis on integrating urban and rural responses.

This includes paying closer attention to casualties and property losses in rural areas, which often suffer from ageing populations, depopulation, and limited resources for disaster prevention — making them more vulnerable to mass casualties.

Liu, who runs a guesthouse in Miyun, agrees that more resources should be allocated to rural areas. She said, “When the heavy rain hit, the river near the village rose dangerously fast. During the rainy season, the district or township authorities should really deploy people to monitor the river round the clock.”

She also claimed that while villagers showed strong mutual support during the disaster, most of the response was self-organised. There was little government assistance or guidance in clearing debris or repairing damaged infrastructure.

Looking at the bigger picture, Kong believes Chinese cities must accelerate the integrated development of flood and drought management systems.

He explained that the south has long focused on flood control while the north prioritised drought resistance, leading to weaknesses on both sides. However, the current reality is that floods and droughts are now occurring simultaneously across both regions.

Following heavy rains in Beijing, Guangzhou’s Baiyun district in Guangdong province experienced a landslide triggered by days of heavy rain in early August, leaving seven dead and seven injured. Meanwhile, Lanzhou’s Yuzhong county, Gansu province, also experienced a flood around the same time. As of 6pm on 9 August, 15 people were dead, 28 missing, and 15 injured.

Ma noted that in dealing with natural disasters spanning multiple administrative regions, more effective coordination mechanisms must be established.

Using the recent heavy rains in Beijing and Hebei as an example, he pointed out that Hebei’s Xinglong county had also faced intense rainfall, triggering flash floods. It should be properly reviewed whether upstream water conditions were effectively integrated into flood risk assessments for downstream areas like Beijing’s Taishitun town.

The frequent heavy rains in northern China are one aspect of the country’s changing climate, and a reflection of the intensifying effects of global climate change. Beyond improving disaster response, it is equally important to alleviate the impact of climate change from the source.

Cutting carbon emissions is key. Ma noted that China has been vigorously promoting energy transition and accelerating renewable energy development, including electric vehicles and photovoltaics. And results are beginning to show: in the first quarter of this year, China’s carbon emissions began to trend downward. Currently, China accounts for about 30% of global carbon emissions.

Ma thinks that China’s commitment to its climate pledges and efforts towards carbon peaking and neutrality can make a positive contribution to global climate change mitigation.

He added that the development of renewable energy not only helps mitigate climate change but serves as a crucial safeguard in adapting to extreme weather conditions. For example, providing stable electricity during heatwaves.

Ma stressed that the two core strategies of climate change are mitigation and adaption. Globally, much of the discussion has focused on mitigation, while adaptation — though acknowledged — is much harder to implement.

He admitted, “Everyone is actually still figuring out the actual trajectory of climate change and how extreme it might get.”

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “从干旱到暴雨频繁  气候变化敲响华北防灾警钟”.

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