China’s confidence campaign: Can slogans solve economic woes?

Since returning to Singapore from China just a couple of days ago, I have been asked more than once: how is China’s economy doing?

That is always a difficult question to answer. I think back to the internet-famous restaurant near our Beijing office; during mealtimes, long queues form, to the point that when you try to book a table, staff tell you politely that they are not taking reservations as there are too many customers, and suggest you get a queue number online as early as possible. Yet if you were to wander around the mall near the hotel, it is deserted, with wait staff standing at restaurant doors trying to draw customers — it was like they saw prey when they spotted me.

During the Two Sessions (the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference), I heard delegates chatting animatedly in small groups in the Great Hall of the People, and more than half their conversations were about artificial intelligence (AI). Turn around, and a ride-hailing driver is complaining about how business gets worse every year: after the Lantern Festival (the fifteenth day of the Chinese New Year), even more ride-hailing cars appeared on Beijing’s roads and his orders fell by a third. He grumbled: “These days, you are lucky to get any jobs at all — in two years it’ll probably all be driverless anyway.”

On one hand, hi-tech sectors such as AI and robotics are vibrant; on the other, traditional industries like property and retail are full of grievances. The macro data looks good, but pressure from employment issues has not eased, perceived quality of life is cooling, and expectations have become more cautious and fragile.

This contrast is perhaps not a contradiction. China’s economy has always been complex, and amid structural transformation and widening distribution gaps, these divergences are becoming more real and more stark. This is why it is not easy to appraise the state of China’s economy.

At the conclusion of the Two Sessions, authorities also offered a reminder: when it comes to assessing China’s economy, it is best to be cautious.

The latest issue of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) journal Qiushi (《求是》) carried a commentary titled “Continuing to Do a Good Job of Stabilising Expectations”, stressing that China’s mainstream media must “effectively guide public discussion on hot button topics, rationally analyse various voices, and sing loudly about China’s bright economic prospects”.

This phrase “sing loudly about China’s bright economic prospects” was first raised by the top leadership at the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2023, and since then public opinion guidance has become part of the toolkit for managing the economy.

At the National Conference of Publicity Ministers at the start of 2024, Cai Qi, the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) member in charge of ideology, also stressed the need to “sing loudly about China’s bright economic prospects”. At the same meeting in 2025, he had called for “strengthening economic publicity and guidance of expectations”. At this year’s conference in January, he once again urged that “economic publicity must be given an important place”.

In recent years, stories have occasionally circulated among China’s economic analysts circle about people getting into trouble over their comments. Some analysts grumbled in private that they can no longer say a stock has “hit limit down” — they have to say it is “waiting to rise”.

The Qiushi commentary also elevated the issue of handling external propaganda when it came to stabilising expectations, naming certain anti-China forces for “strenuously spreading various versions of the ‘economic collapse theory’ and the ‘threat theory’ for China among other false narratives”, and called for “timely rebuttals of erroneous narratives such as ‘China’s economy has peaked’, ‘China has excess capacity’ and ‘foreign capital is leaving China’, among others”.

In other words, within China’s economic policy toolkit, the weapon of public opinion has once again been sharpened. Some analysts believe that external propaganda efforts will be intensified to project a positive outlook for China’s economy.

The economy has never been merely a matter of arithmetic; it is also a question of psychology. During the 2008 financial crisis, China’s then Premier Wen Jiabao famously declared, “Confidence is more important than gold and currency.” Now, as China’s economy presses on under strain, the authorities have lowered the annual growth target below the 5% threshold, marking the first time in over 30 years that this has happened, apart from the year the Covid-19 pandemic broke out.

While some macroeconomic data remain reasonably encouraging, the latest figures show that industrial production and consumption in the first two months of the year exceeded expectations, and investment activity has also picked up. However, it remains uncertain whether this early-year rebound can be sustained, particularly as turmoil in global trade and energy markets, stemming from Middle East tensions, could weigh on China’s economy.

This is the time when confidence in China’s economy needs to be boosted. Yet confidence tends to come from lived experience, not from cold statistics, and still less from the slogans of official messaging. Macroeconomic data are aggregate indicators; they do not explain where growth comes from or who receives the profits, nor do they address micro-level concerns such as ordinary people’s wages and bonuses, employment stability, or the earnings of small businesses. 

When someone sees shops in nearby malls closing one after another, restaurants sitting empty, their child unable to find a job after graduating, their own year-end bonus slashed, and the value of their home still falling, it is only natural for them to frown and tighten their purse strings, rather than feel persuaded by upbeat official narratives of a “steady and improving economy” or that “the outlook here is uniquely bright”.

Likewise, external concerns and anxieties about China’s economy may not be entirely accurate, but issues such as overcapacity, squeezed profits, and declining foreign investment are not without basis. As Chinese Premier Li Qiang acknowledged in this year’s government work report, the country still faces “quite a few problems and challenges, both old and new, in economic development and transformation”, while the “task of transitioning to new growth drivers is formidable” and “the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand is acute”. Some enterprises are facing operational difficulties, and it is becoming harder for people to secure jobs and earn more. The property market also remains in a period of adjustment.

These problems are hard to avoid and cannot be resolved through a battle of public opinion. If confidence needs to be repeatedly asserted through official messaging, it is precisely a sign that it is ebbing. Public opinion can soothe sentiment, but it cannot ultimately solve real issues — businesses focus on profits, while ordinary people weigh their incomes.

In the end, public opinion may serve as a lever to bolster confidence, but the fulcrum must rest on the economic fundamentals. By seeking truth from facts, respecting objective economic laws, and fostering a more accommodating environment in which individuals can experiment and unleash creativity, while raising incomes and strengthening the social safety net, confidence will return naturally, without the need for rhetorical fanfare.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国经济舆论战再加码”.

Related: China enters the 4% growth era: Stability over speed | When AI replaces workers, who pays the taxes?