Baseball or diplomacy? Taiwan premier’s Japan trip draws scrutiny

On 7 March, Taiwan’s baseball team defeated the Czech Republic in the World Baseball Classic in Japan, but the biggest talking point from the game was political, rather than sports. This is because among the spectators was a particularly sensitive figure — Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai.

Japan and Taiwan cut official ties in 1972, and this is the first time in 54 years that a sitting premier has travelled to Japan and appeared in public there. Footage showed Cho at the Tokyo Dome, accompanied by Taiwan’s representative to Japan Lee Yi-yang, and Sports Minister Lee Yang.

In terms of order of precedence, the premier is Taiwan’s number-three political figure after the president and vice-president. In terms of actual executive power, he is probably second only to the president. The premier is appointed directly by the president and serves as the chief administrative officer, overseeing ministries and directing the implementation of government policy. The vice-president, by contrast, acts primarily as a constitutional successor, assuming the presidency if the office becomes vacant or temporarily exercising presidential powers if the president is unable to perform his duties.

Before Cho, then Vice-President Lai Ching-te visited Japan in 2022 to pay respects to assassinated former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Going by actual political clout, Cho’s trip does indeed break through the ceiling of Taiwan-Japan interaction. In 2004, then Premier Yu Shyi-kun’s plane transited through Okinawa on the way back from Central America after being diverted by a typhoon, but that was unintentional.

Taiwanese politicians, especially those still in office, have a very unique identity internationally and often can only travel under the label of a “private visit”. When then Vice-Premier Cheng Wen‑tsan went to Japan in 2023, and when Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung did so in 2025, both publicly described their trips as “private”. Cho was no exception. On 8 March, he wrote on Facebook: “Yesterday was my day off, I paid for my trip out of my own pocket, it was a private trip.”

Cho travelled to Japan with aides and bodyguards on a chartered China Airlines flight. The Kuomintang (KMT) camp has questioned whether the round trip may have cost tens of millions of Taiwan dollars, yet according to his asset declaration, Cho’s savings amounted to just over NT$9 million (US$283,152). “Is the premier really going to bankrupt himself just to watch a ball game?”

The KMT, having once ruled Taiwan for a long period, cannot possibly be ignorant of the guile behind the so-called “private visits”. Yet its legislators have been doggedly hounding Cho over the nature of the trip, demanding an answer that could not be more obvious. Cho on his part produced a prop — a manila envelope he claimed contained receipts. Both the government and the opposition staged a highly entertaining round of questioning for the Taiwanese audience.

There is no way Cho’s “lightning visit” to Japan was truly a private trip, but he absolutely cannot admit it was official business. Japan must also toe firmly to the “private visit” line. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara told reporters that it was “a private visit. The government is not in a position to comment”, adding that Cho had no contact with Japanese officials. Because of Taiwan’s special status, the veil of “private visits” cannot be lifted — if the truth were exposed, the consequences of angering Beijing would be serious, and senior officials have long since become used to telling blatant untruths in public without batting an eyelid.

In Beijing, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Taiwan Affairs Office responded with their usual firmness. That evening, Vice-Foreign Minister Sun Weidong called Japan’s ambassador to China, Kenji Kanasugi, to protest Cho’s visit to Japan. Foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that China remains highly vigilant and “firmly opposed to the Japanese side trying to create grey areas or push the envelope on the Taiwan question”, warning that “the Japanese side will pay the price for emboldening the provocations and acting recklessly and shall bear all responsibility for the consequences of such action”.

Meanwhile, although Foreign Minister Wang Yi slammed Taiwan and Japan at a diplomacy-themed press conference on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress on 8 March, he made no mention of the “baseball diplomacy” between them.

What makes the incident particularly intriguing is that, following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s declaration that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency”, Beijing-Tokyo relations plummeted. Against this backdrop of heightened tensions, how did Japan calculate the risks of allowing Taiwan’s incumbent premier to enter the country, and to make such a public appearance?

Japanese media reported that Takaichi will visit the US on 19 March, while the White House has announced that Trump will visit China from 31 March to 2 April. In other words, the US and Japanese leaders will meet before the China and US heads of state meet. Taking a broader view, Cho’s trip to Japan to watch a baseball game before Takaichi departs for the US strongly suggests that there are reasons he cannot openly disclose.

What message does Taipei want to convey? Or what insights do Takaichi seek from Taipei? Was the US aware of this Taiwan-Japan interaction in advance? If so, what signal is the US-Japan-Taiwan trio trying to send ahead of the Xi-Trump summit? That Beijing openly criticised Cho’s visit to Japan, yet left the Xi-Trump meeting on its schedule — what does that indicate?

The US is currently preoccupied with the conflict in Iran, and Trump has recently made no statements on Taiwan. At the end of January, Takaichi told a TV Asahi programme that if a major incident were to occur in Taiwan, “we would have to ‍go to rescue the Japanese and American citizens in Taiwan. In that situation, ⁠there may be cases where we take joint action.” She also warned: “And if the US forces, acting jointly with us, come under attack and Japan does nothing and simply runs away, the Japan-US alliance would collapse.”

On 10 March, US ambassador to Japan George Glass met with Takaichi, stating that the US-Japan alliance has “never been stronger or more ambitious than it is today”, reaffirming America’s unwavering commitment to the alliance and the “free and open Indo-Pacific” strategy. Takaichi expressed her hope that her visit to the US would showcase the unwavering Japan-US alliance to the world. The pair also discussed the situation in Iran.

From the US perspective, amid its entanglement in the Middle East, nothing major must happen in the Asia-Pacific. Maintaining a highly stable and close Japan-Taiwan relationship is the fundamental cornerstone, but under no circumstances must they cross Beijing’s red lines.

Based on the schedule of Cho’s return to Taiwan, Taiwanese media estimate that Cho had at least four hours of free time in Japan, besides attending the baseball game. What else did he do? Who did he meet? There is only one truth behind the “baseball diplomacy”, but it will likely remain unknown until documents are declassified. Within today’s complex and turbulent geopolitical chessboard, it is enough to fuel widespread speculation.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “台日“棒球外交”之迷”.

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