China’s Victory Day parade: A show of force against Washington

On 3 September, China will hold a grand military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of China’s triumph in the Second Sino-Japanese War and the global victory over fascism. This will mark the third time Chinese President Xi Jinping has overseen a military parade at Tiananmen Square since becoming China’s top leader in 2012. The biggest highlight of the parade will be the new equipment showcased by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Xi previously held two major parades: one in 2015 to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the victory in the war against Japan, and another in 2019 to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Compared with those earlier events, China now faces a more adverse and complex external environment.

Strategic competition between China and the US has intensified, for instance, while Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is accelerating its push toward “Taiwan independence”. Elsewhere, the war between Russia and Ukraine has dragged on for over three years with no sign of resolution, and conflicts continue to rage in the Middle East, with regional power Iran battered by Israeli strikes. In Iran, the US has once again demonstrated its formidable military power by striking Iranian nuclear facilities with stealth bombers.

To China’s leadership, the world today is far from peaceful, and China still faces security threats of varying degrees. Using this year’s parade to display the PLA’s latest military achievements and to deter potential US-led military adversaries is seen as necessary.

Wu Zeke, deputy director-general of the Operation Bureau of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, said this year’s parade will feature both traditional main combat forces and “new-type combat capabilities”. All the equipment on display will be domestically produced, currently in service, and considered primary combat systems. In addition to showcasing a new generation of traditional weaponry, the parade will also include some of China’s new combat forces in areas such as unmanned intelligent systems, underwater operations, cyber-electronic warfare, and hypersonic weapons.

In other words, the parade will primarily feature active service equipment and new types of combat forces such as unmanned and intelligent systems. This suggests that China’s two sixth-generation fighter jets, which saw test flights at the end of last year, along with the long-rumoured stealth strategic bomber H-20, have not yet entered service and are unlikely to appear in the parade. Nonetheless, air force fighters and the navy’s new carrier-based aircraft will remain major highlights of the event.

In the India-Pakistan aerial clash this past May, Pakistan used the Chinese-made J-10CE fighter jet to shoot down an Indian Rafale fighter acquired from France, putting Chinese aircraft in the spotlight. While the J-10 may still appear in this year’s parade, it is no longer considered an advanced fighter by Chinese standards. With sixth-generation fighters like the J-36 absent, public attention is expected to focus on fifth-generation stealth fighters such as the J-35 and J-20, particularly the J-35, which has never been featured in a military parade before.

According to footage of the parade’s aerial rehearsal posted by netizens, the J-35 and J-15T have appeared in the same formation, indicating that these two fighter jets will serve as the next generation of carrier-based aircraft for China’s aircraft carriers, marking China’s entry into the stealth era for carrier-based aviation. Meanwhile, the KJ-600 carrier-based early warning aircraft is also expected to feature in the parade, suggesting that it has already entered service. Its deployment would significantly enhance the long-range early warning and combat capabilities of China’s carrier strike groups.

China’s first fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-20, has appeared frequently in recent years and is now a regular feature at major air shows. However, state media such as CCTV recently quoted a J-20 pilot as saying that the J-20 continues to evolve every year — even every month. Reports suggest that the twin-seat variant, the J-20S, is undergoing intensive test flights.

The back-seat pilot in the J-20S is primarily responsible for controlling and commanding loyal wingman drones, as part of exploring a new manned-unmanned coordinated air combat system. Whether the J-20S will appear at the parade alongside stealth drones in a coordinated aerial formation will be another focal point.

In addition, the Y-20B, a large transport aircraft equipped with China’s domestically developed WS-20 turbofan engine, may appear in the parade, signalling a further upgrade in the PLA Air Force’s strategic airlift and aerial refuelling capabilities. Drones remain a strong suit for China, and combat-capable and stealth UAVs such as the GJ-2, CH-7, and GJ-11 are expected to fly in formation over Chang’an Avenue.

At the same time, China is set to continue showcasing its leading edge in hypersonic missile technology. An upgraded version of the DF-17 (which some refer to as the DF-27), along with the new long-range missile defence platform HQ-29, may appear in the parade, highlighting a further enhancement of the PLA’s anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities.

As for the “new-domain and new-quality combat forces” beyond traditional air and ground weaponry, the parade is expected to feature physical displays of the PLA’s progress in unmanned intelligent systems, underwater warfare, and cyber-electronic operations. These may include the J-16D electronic warfare aircraft, smart naval mines, unmanned underwater vehicles, and robotic dogs.

In terms of strategic missiles, while there have been rumours that China has developed a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-51, it is still likely that the DF-41 ICBM will be the climax of this year’s parade. As a strategic “doomsday weapon”, the DF-41 is already capable of inflicting overwhelming damage on any adversary. Furthermore, both the Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing Middle East conflicts have emphasised that conventional weapons are more decisive than nuclear arms in modern warfare.

Earlier this year, Russia and the US both held their own military parades. Russia’s event continued its tradition of showcasing a mechanised “torrent of steel”, while the US parade looked more like a party celebrating US President Donald Trump’s birthday. In contrast, China’s leadership has always regarded military parades as serious affairs and will use this occasion to project a wide array of political, military and diplomatic messages to both domestic and international audiences.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国今年阅兵有哪些看点”.

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