Rising global crises test Beijing’s Belt and Road security resilience in 2025

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) faces relentless pressure in 2025, near and far from Chinese borders. Anxiety, already palpable in 2024, is deepening as economic strains at home collide with mounting security crises abroad. Not to mention that 20 January looms. Trump’s return may force China to split its focus or commit its dwindling resources to the US standoff. The stakes have never been higher for China’s economic and diplomatic reach along the BRI.

Its near-abroad is volatile: the DPRK is escalating the internationalisation of the conflict in Ukraine at a time when South Korea’s democratic system is marred by the impeachment of its president. Pakistan burns, spiralling into domestic violence and getting on the wrong foot with Taliban-led Afghanistan. Myanmar’s situation is especially dire, with escalating conflict and a worsening economy. China has refrained from making significant investments in the country for over three years, likely waiting for stability to avoid putting the BRI at risk.

China is actively navigating crises in the Middle East. Syria’s Assad regime has collapsed, with the new leadership elevating Uighur militants to key military roles. Meanwhile, Iran will face intensified pressure from Israel, but if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire endures, stability in the Red Sea could improve. This would benefit Chinese trade as Houthi attacks from Yemen on vital sea lanes of communications will diminish. But Beijing continues to grapple with the ongoing upheaval in the Middle East, carefully considering the “Trump factor” in the future of the Israel-Hamas deal.

Further afield, Africa erupts. Chad’s presidential complex was attacked by insurgents just a few hours after China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met government officials. Islamist fighters are spreading while Russia’s ambitions pertaining to the continent hinge on access to Libya, and Turkey’s influence grows. In comparison, the US’s rising pressure in the Indo-Pacific completes a meek picture of the anxieties that China faces in 2025.  

At the end of 2024, from the Middle East to Africa, Turkey emerged as the geopolitical powerhouse being able to extend its will via an efficient army, the ability to deploy proxies through armed non-state actors and the rising export of military equipment and supplies, starting with the ubiquitous armed drones Bayraktar.

At the same time, Ankara benefits from companies with an excellent reputation in the region for infrastructure development projects. What Turkey lacks is a stable economy to anchor its recent geopolitical advantages. While Russia is still coping with the loss of Syrian military bases to support its expansion in Africa, the Kremlin’s “Kalashnikov diplomacy” remains the preferred tool in a time when economic options are limited at best.  

China’s model, rooted in the belief that investments and economic development foster security, faces a stark challenge from escalating violence. Despite the fragility of China’s overseas security presence along the BRI, its economic power — though operating with a reduced footprint — remains a cornerstone of the BRI’s resilience. This enduring strength continues to sustain China’s influence across nations from Islamabad to Khartoum. These countries, acutely aware of their limited options for foreign investment, often see China as their sole viable partner.  

Compared to the annus horribilis of 2024, 2025 offers a glimpse of hope for the BRI security landscape. Chinese diplomacy still holds room to manoeuvre in regions desperate for reconstruction capital and rich in natural resources. The key question is whether Beijing will align with Turkey’s rising influence in the Middle East and north Africa region, leverage the protective umbrella of Russian mercenaries in sub-Saharan Africa, or focus on preserving the BRI in regions safer for Chinese investments. These safer zones stretch from the wealthy Gulf States in the Middle East to the Levant, from Egypt to Morocco, and from Kenya to South Africa. Meanwhile, from the European Union (EU) to South America — regions where the BRI operates without high-security constraints and mostly quietly under the radar — much will depend on President Trump’s decisions on how to confront China.

While Beijing can still afford to play the long game in regions like Africa and South America, its immediate neighbourhood presents urgent and tangible threats that demand swift and decisive action. A wait-and-see approach is no longer an option.

The ongoing clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan — where China has poured US$65 billion into infrastructure — mark yet another violent blow to Chinese interests in the region. Militant groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)) and the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (IS-KP) have escalated their attacks on Chinese diplomats, educators and migrant workers, leaving an ever-mounting toll of casualties. Pakistan’s failure to contain the Islamist militants risks fuelling the spread of violence into Central Asia, adding another layer of complexity to the region’s fragile security landscape. For Beijing, this threat underscores the importance of the Central Asian logistic land corridor connecting China to the EU and ASEAN — being part of a high-stakes geopolitical contest where China has vied with Russia and Turkey for over a decade. In this arena, the EU and the US remain inconsistent players, oscillating between bursts of engagement and prolonged neglect.

Drawing on Donald Rumsfeld’s concept of “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns”, China’s focus on the known unknowns near its borders in early 2025 will shape the future of the BRI’s resilience, determining how it will be both protected and expanded economically in the months ahead. Whether through increased financial investment, the deployment of more professional Chinese private security companies from Pakistan to Myanmar, or leveraging the influence of Turkey and Russia, Beijing’s approach will reveal the strategies it will use to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the coming period.

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