Supreme Court ruling weakens Trump ahead of China visit

On 20 February, just after White House officials confirmed that US President Donald Trump would visit China from 31 March to 2 April, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s policy of imposing reciprocal tariffs on various countries was unconstitutional. This dealt a heavy blow to Trump’s efforts since 2025 to impose tariffs at will, undermining the strongman image he had cultivated and leaving him with fewer bargaining chips in negotiations with China.

Trump showed no intention of yielding to domestic constraints. After the Supreme Court ruled that his use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to raise tariffs was unconstitutional, he signed an executive order that very evening, invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, announcing a 10% import tariff on global trading partners for 150 days starting 24 February. Then, on 21 February, he declared on social media that the new tariff rate would be increased ‘to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15 per cent level.’

Since returning to the White House in early 2025, Trump has wielded tariffs as a big stick against countries around the world, ready to levy duties at the slightest disagreement — even allies were not spared. The Supreme Court’s ruling somewhat curtailed, but did not strip, the power of this tariff stick. The administration could still scour decades of US law for legal grounds to continue brandishing the tariff weapon with considerable gusto.

But the Supreme Court ruling is no mere showpiece. While the Trump administration could still find ways to impose tariffs on other countries, the decision signals that anti-Trump forces within the US are gaining strength.

On top of that, in recent domestic elections, Trump’s Republican Party has suffered repeated setbacks, even losing the Miami mayoral race where Republicans have traditionally held an advantage. Signs of division are emerging within the party, and the likelihood of Republican losses in the midterm elections at year’s end is rising. If Trump’s opponents, the Democrats, win, he would lose his status as the most powerful US president in decades and become a “lame duck” president

For China, the Supreme Court’s ruling is certainly welcomed. Not only could it affect the reciprocal tariffs and the fentanyl-related duties the US has imposed on China, it also indicates that the domestic political climate in the US is turning against Trump. The fact that the White House announced Trump’s China visit so early clearly shows how much he values this trip, and that he hopes to use it to proclaim that he has “won once more”.

The question is, with opposition to Trump growing within the US, what favourable outcomes can he realistically secure for himself by travelling to China?

Media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal have reported that the Supreme Court’s ruling could strengthen China’s bargaining position, and could also make it harder for Trump to realise his anticipated demand for large purchases from China of soybeans, Boeing aircraft and energy exports.

There is some merit in these arguments. But from China’s perspective, no matter how difficult Trump’s domestic situation is, he is still the US president — a non-establishment president who focuses only on immediate gains, cares little about the long term and is unconcerned about the feelings of allies. Compared with his predecessor, Joe Biden, who is adept at rallying allies to contain China, Trump is an easier foe. 

Faced with such a rare “atypical” US president, China might not respond with traditional thinking. Instead, it could seek to exploit Trump’s traits and remaining time in office to secure more advantageous strategic goals on key issues such as Taiwan and the broader international environment.

Therefore, if Trump does visit China as scheduled, Beijing would certainly give him a high-level reception, granting Trump the face he cares so deeply about while also allowing him to gain some short-term benefits, such as large purchases of soybeans among other agricultural products.

The US enjoyed a bumper soybean harvest last year. Initially, tensions in China–US trade relations meant soybeans could not be sold to China. But after negotiations, China once again agreed to import large quantities of American soybeans, easing the pressure on US farmers.

This year, US agricultural states have further expanded their soybean acreage. Even though American soybeans are less competitive in price and quality than those from Brazil and Argentina, as long as a Trump visit to China can help maintain a “temporary truce” in China-US relations — and given Trump’s need to save face — China would still likely continue buying large volumes of US soybeans.

Of course, for Trump to achieve the outcomes he wants from a visit to China, he would also have to make concessions to Beijing. For instance, in place of the fentanyl-related tariffs that the Supreme Court has ruled unlawful, Trump might introduce other forms of taxation, though it is unlikely the rates would be higher than they are now.

On core issues that Beijing cares deeply about, such as Taiwan, Trump could continue arms sales to Taiwan even after his visit to China, but he could also make statements on the “one China” policy and on not supporting “Taiwan independence” that are more in line with Beijing’s preferences.

The US Supreme Court’s ruling has left Trump with fewer bargaining chips in dealing with China. The divisions between the US and its allies, along with a Trump visit to China, could help to improve the relatively constrained international environment Beijing has faced in recent years. However, even if the Trump visit is deemed a success, the broader pattern of long-term strategic rivalry between China and the US would not change easily.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “特朗普访华少了些筹码”.

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