Under Washington’s shadow: Canada’s China dilemma

Since the start of 2026, China has been busy with home-ground diplomacy. After sending off Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung last week, on 14 January, it welcomed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Carney’s visit to China is highly significant for both China and Canada, a neighbour of the US. It is his first visit to China since becoming prime minister, and the first visit to China by a Canadian leader since 2017. Ottawa has made thorough preparations for the trip — Carney is accompanied by a large delegation, including five cabinet heavyweights: the foreign minister, the industry minister, the energy and natural resources minister, the agriculture minister and the international trade minister. This is the largest ministerial team to accompany Carney on an overseas visit thus far.

Ottawa has also gone to great lengths to create a positive atmosphere for the visit and prevent any unnecessary complications. After confirmation of Carney’s trip to China, two MPs from Carney’s governing Liberal Party — who were part of a group of Canadian MPs that happened to be in Taiwan — cut short their trip on 12 January. In a statement, the two revealed that they returned to Canada “informed by advice from the government”, and said that because the Taiwan visit overlapped with Carney’s China trip, it was important to “avoid confusion with Canada’s foreign policy”. This shows that Ottawa is handling the Taiwan issue, Beijing’s most sensitive concern, with great caution.

Carney’s trip to China did not come easily. In December 2018, acting on a request from the US, Canada arrested Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei’s daughter, Meng Wanzhou, while she was transiting in Vancouver. In retaliation, China detained two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.

This three-way political tussle involving China, the US and Canada dragged on for nearly three years, and only ended in September 2021. In the end, Meng was freed and returned to China in triumph, while the two Canadian citizens were also released and returned home after Meng left Canada.

However, the shadow cast by the Meng Wanzhou incident continued to loom large, preventing the two countries from emerging from their stalemate for several years thereafter. In November 2022, Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, had an informal diplomatic exchange with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. Although it was just a brief interlude, the disharmony evident in their interaction reflected the lack of political trust between China and Canada.

In recent years, Canada has also accused China of interfering in Canadian elections, and trade frictions between the two sides have continued. In 2024, Canada followed the lead of the US and imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, as well as a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminium products. Beijing subsequently launched anti-discrimination and anti-dumping investigations, and took countermeasures against Canadian agricultural products including canola, pork and seafood.

The US looms large in the shadows behind the plunge in China-Canada relations to freezing point. Now that there is an opportunity for relations to thaw, there is also an indirect American factor behind it.

Since returning to the White House last year, US President Donald Trump has launched a series of moves that force Canada to seek new strategic and trade space. Although his attention is currently focused on hotspots such as Latin America and Greenland, Ottawa’s sense of anxiety has clearly intensified in the face of his half-joking yet ambiguous threat to turn Canada into the “51st US state”. Under the shadow of tariff pressure, Canada — whose economy is deeply intertwined with that of the US — has a practical need to diversify its options and reassess its relationship with China, its second-largest trading partner.

In a statement released ahead of the trip, Carney said: “We’re forging new partnerships around the world to transform our economy from one that has been reliant on a single trade partner, to one that is stronger and more resilient to global shocks.” Although no names were mentioned, it is obvious who the “single trade partner” is.

In recent days, some Canadian commentators have described Carney’s visit to China as a “reset”, “thaw” and “recalibration”. There have also been many positive assessments from Canada’s political, business and academic circles, including calls to put confrontation aside and expand trade with China. Meanwhile, less optimistic voices warn against overestimating the breakthroughs Carney can achieve, as the deep-seated tensions between the two countries will not be easily resolved.

Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said in an article published in The Globe and Mail that the success of Carney’s China trip hinges on whether he can secure specific economic gains without undermining Canada’s long-term security and strategic autonomy. To this end, he must address three things: resist Beijing’s pressure for political compliance; prioritise Canada’s economic security and resilience; and strengthen national security guardrails.

Within Canada, views on China-Canada economic and trade relations vary widely across regions. Ontario premier Doug Ford has publicly urged Carney not to cut tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles since Ontario is home to the country’s main automotive industry. By contrast, Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe, who is accompanying Carney on the China visit, holds a markedly different view as Saskatchewan is a major producer of canola. The Carney government must carefully balance all of this.

While there are calls to reset ties with China and deepen economic cooperation, there are also concerns of China as a threat and a strategic competitor. Canada’s unique geopolitical position also means that the US will remain an inescapable factor in China-Canada relations — at times nudging the two closer together, at others acting as an obstacle, making the relationship complex and fragile. Nevertheless, promoting a thaw in China-Canada ties would represent an opportunity for both sides: for Ottawa, it is a matter of pragmatic interests; for Beijing, having one more friend is better than having one more enemy.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中加关系转圜靠美国？”.

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