[Video] The real danger behind China’s military purge
China has purged nearly its entire top military leadership. While debate centres on whether this accelerates or delays a Taiwan conflict, the more consequential question may be how risk is structured, assessed and misread. ThinkChina’s Yi Jina finds out more.
On 24 January, Central Military Commission vice-chairman Zhang Youxia (张又侠) and member Liu Zhenli (刘振立) were placed under investigation for disloyalty to Xi Jinping and corruption, following earlier removals of other senior generals. Of the original seven-member body that ultimately decides how China fights wars, only Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin remain.
Two main interpretations quickly emerged. One is that removing Zhang, often described as someone who urged caution on Taiwan, signals Xi is clearing internal obstacles to the use of force. The other is that war could be delayed, as the PLA has lost leaders with real combat experience. Political commentator Deng Yuwen finds both interpretations unconvincing. He argues that the purge should not be seen as directly triggering or preventing war, but rather as an event that “spills outward and reshapes the structure and tempo of risk in the Taiwan Strait”.
Experts including Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, and Minxin Pei, Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College, point to a practical challenge: Xi now needs to build a command team he both trusts and considers capable.
That’s where the risk begins to shift. If Zhang’s replacement shifts the military’s priorities, with loyalty outweighing professional judgement, officers may hesitate to deliver bad news. Over time, assessments can become overly optimistic, costs downplayed and risks misread. And that would raise the chance of miscalculation.
The purge, then, does not simply speed up or delay war with Taiwan. It changes how decisions are made, how risk is assessed and how information flows.
