Why Japan and France are trapped in a dangerous leadership deadlock
Japan and France face political deadlock as divided parties and weak governments create a leadership void, threatening democracy and risking a rise in extremism amid global uncertainty. Commentator Chen Kuohsiang looks into the consequences.
In recent years, political turmoil has deepened across advanced democracies, and Japan and France have emerged as striking examples. Though worlds apart — one in Asia, the other in Europe — both major industrial powers now face a similar challenge: their ruling parties no longer hold parliamentary majorities.
As a result, minority governments are struggling to lead, with weakened authority and gridlocked policymaking creating a growing leadership void. This vacuum has not just stalled domestic agendas — it is rippling outward, impacting regional and global political and economic dynamics..
Japan’s fractured party
The core issue in Japan’s political landscape is that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors for the first time. In last year’s lower house election, the LDP fell short of a majority and had to rely on its coalition partner, Komeito, to maintain a fragile hold on government.
However, in this July’s upper house election, the LDP-Komeito coalition won only 122 seats — three short of the 125 needed for a majority. The LDP thus became a minority government in both houses, and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba came under mounting pressure from both inside and outside the party.
In an effort to rally support, Ishiba tried to frame the ongoing US tariff negotiations as a “national crisis” to unite voters. But the strategy backfired, largely due to his poor handling of the issue. Discontent within the LDP quickly grew, and the Aso faction, along with other influential party figures, began pushing for an early leadership election. Faced with the threat of a party split, Ishiba had no choice but to resign on 7 September.
... even with new leadership, Japan remains trapped in political uncertainty...
Ishiba’s resignation did not resolve the political deadlock. Potential successors — Sanae Takaichi, Shinjiro Koizumi and Yoshimasa Hayashi — each face limitations. Takaichi’s approach is too radical, risking backlash from conservative liberals; Koizumi is popular but lacks governing experience; and Hayashi is seen as a transitional figure. This means that even with new leadership, Japan remains trapped in political uncertainty.
Japan’s current leadership void stems from the ruling party’s failure to unify factions and restore a parliamentary majority, leaving the cabinet weakened and its authority diminished. From diplomatic negotiations to economic reforms, major policies struggle to advance, further compounding the challenges facing an already troubled Japan.
France’s dilemma lies squarely in the fractured state of its National Assembly.
France’s political deadlock
Meanwhile, France’s dilemma lies squarely in the fractured state of its National Assembly. The recently ousted former Prime Minister François Bayrou was challenged by a confidence vote almost immediately after taking office. His proposed austerity budget aimed to cut 44 billion euros (roughly US$51.7 billion) in government spending to address the severe fiscal situation, with the deficit standing at 5.8% of GDP. However, strong opposition from both the left-wing France Unbowed and the far-right National Rally rendered the confidence vote doomed from the outset.
Bayrou was already the fourth prime minister in just three years. Since the start of President Emmanuel Macron’s second term, the French government has struggled to maintain a stable majority in parliament. The frequent turnover of prime ministers has led to a lack of policy continuity, with economic reforms repeatedly abandoned midway.
Meanwhile, France’s debt is rising by 5,000 euros every second, and interest payments are expected to exceed 75 billion euros next year. Yet, due to deadlock within the National Assembly, any attempt at fiscal consolidation faces strong resistance.
What is even more concerning is Macron’s liberal camp’s inability to build a lasting alliance with either the left or the right. Should the Socialist Party take control of the prime ministership, it could alienate both the liberal and moderate right-wing bases, further undermining the government’s stability.
As one Parisian shopkeeper lamented, “Come back in ten days, and you will find that nothing has changed. There will be no majority and no budget.” This statement is a stark revelation of the powerlessness of French politics.
... major policies are stuck in deadlock; Japan’s trade negotiations with the US and economic reforms cannot progress, while France’s budget tightening and debt restructuring were repeatedly vetoed...
Accumulation of systemic errors
Although Japan and France have different cultural and institutional environments, their political turbulence are highly similar. In both countries, the ruling parties are unable to secure a parliamentary majority; Japan’s LDP has lost its majority in both houses, while Macron’s camp is isolated in the National Assembly, leading to minority governments lacking room to manoeuvre.
Meanwhile, the authority of their respective leaders is undermined, with frequent cabinet reshuffles. Consequently, major policies are stuck in deadlock; Japan’s trade negotiations with the US and economic reforms cannot progress, while France’s budget tightening and debt restructuring were repeatedly vetoed, showing that parliamentary infighting has overridden national interests.
Social confidence has also eroded; Japanese voters are disillusioned with the LDP yet reject alternatives, while the French public has lost patience with politicians, believing that “nothing ever changes”. Such political apathy has deepened the fissures in democracy.
The dysfunction of Japan’s and France’s politics is not only a domestic issue, it also has international repercussions. In Asia, Japan is facing the rise of China and pressure from US tariffs; without stable leadership, it cannot respond effectively to security and economic strategies, which could weaken its position in the Asia-Pacific region. In Europe, as the second largest economy in the eurozone, France’s political vacuum could affect the EU’s overall fiscal discipline and economic stability. If Paris cannot push through deficit reductions, Europe could once again fall under the shadow of a Southern European debt crisis, further undermining confidence in the euro.
The current political situations in Japan and France clearly highlight a significant concern of modern democratic politics: when political parties are divided, parliaments are fragmented and the ruling authorities lose control, and the nation spirals into a leadership void.
The political deadlock in both countries reflects a structural dilemma of global democratic systems: majority governments are hard to form, minority governments are difficult to govern, while populist and extremist forces take advantage of the situation.
The current political situations in Japan and France clearly highlight a significant concern of modern democratic politics: when political parties are divided, parliaments are fragmented and the ruling authorities lose control, and the nation spirals into a leadership void. This void is not a temporary aberration, but a result of accumulation of systemic errors.
Unless breakthroughs are found in party cooperation, electoral system reform and the construction of social consensus, Japan and France might continue to be stuck in the vicious cycle of “election without government”. The result is not only stagnation in government affairs, but also a possible hotbed for extremism and authoritarian propositions.
At a time of global turbulence, the absence of political leadership is a burden no country can bear, and the experiences of Japan and France are a profound warning to all democratic societies.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “政治领导虚空为极端主义提供温床”.
