Will Xi Jinping attend Trump’s inauguration?
US President-elect Trump has reportedly invited world leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration next January. Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Sim Tze Wei asks: is Trump extending an olive branch to China or setting a trap?
Unpredictable US President-elect Donald Trump has made another unconventional move, blurring fact and fiction and keeping people intrigued, breaking a 150-year tradition by inviting foreign heads of state to attend his inauguration in Washington.
According to a report in CBS last week, Trump invited Chinese President Xi Jinping in early November, but it is unclear whether Xi has accepted, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is reportedly “still considering” whether to attend.
CNN reported that the invitation list also includes El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Argentinean President Javier Milei. The leaders of Hungary, El Salvador, Italy and Argentina are all right-wing populist figures, in sync with Trump.
Mixed reactions from countries invited
Trump’s idea is novel, but how do the foreign leaders he invited feel about it?
With US-China relations influencing global politics and economics, people are most interested in whether Xi will accept Trump’s invitation.
Western media reported that when asked about the matter during a routine press briefing on 12 December, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said: “I don’t have anything to share at present.” However, this was not included in the official content published on the ministry’s website.
On a technical level, the attendance of multiple foreign leaders at a US presidential inauguration would be a major security challenge, as any minor oversight could lead to a major incident.
At a press conference on 16 December at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, Trump said Xi had not yet responded to the invitation, but he would “love” to have Xi. Trump added that while the two had not discussed the matter directly, they had exchanged letters and had a good conversation. He did not specify when this happened; however, after he was shot at in Pennsylvania in July, he said Xi wrote him a “beautiful note”.
China may be put on the spot
On a technical level, the attendance of multiple foreign leaders at a US presidential inauguration would be a major security challenge, as any minor oversight could lead to a major incident. In 2017, Trump’s first inauguration saw the presence of 8,000 security personnel, while Joe Biden’s ceremony in 2021 saw a massive increase to 25,000 personnel due to the violent Capitol riot shortly before the event.
Diplomatic protocol would also be a headache. Foreign leaders would need to arrive in Washington no later than the day before the inauguration. Biden would still be president — should arrangements be made for him to meet with these leaders?
Travelling all the way to applaud and congratulate the new US president may not fit the image of a modern great power like China.
Since his first term, Trump has not hesitated to publicly praise Xi. But some see this unprecedented invitation to the inauguration as a thinly veiled trap. While the gesture appears to be a warm invitation, it contradicts diplomatic norms. As it is not a state visit, the status of China’s head of state could be perceived as diminished. Travelling all the way to applaud and congratulate the new US president may not fit the image of a modern great power like China.
The worst-case scenario is that even if Xi attends, it might still result in further tariffs or technological restrictions from the Trump administration, which would be a double whammy — the risk is considerable. Even before Xi returns to China, any hint of anti-China sentiment in Trump’s inauguration speech would already be embarrassing.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained?
But another view holds that nothing ventured, nothing gained. Domestic market confidence in China has remained low and should Trump initiate a trade war, the Chinese economy is bound to face difficulties both at home and abroad. If the Chinese leader were to visit Washington and establish a strong personal relationship with Trump, it could present a unique opportunity to shift from a passive to an active role and find a breakthrough in establishing a sound basis for China-US relations.
Trump’s break with tradition and decision to invite foreign leaders to attend his inauguration likely stemmed from a desire to generate global buzz and bask in the attention as the central figure in international politics. It also reflects his emphasis on personal connections, extending an olive branch and offering an early opportunity to connect with some key leaders.
In Asia, Trump reportedly had the best relationship with the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. John Bolton, who served as national security adviser (2018–19) to Trump, revealed in his book that Trump and Abe frequently played golf together and enjoyed a close personal relationship.
While a “bromance” between leaders can help advance bilateral relations, it is not necessarily a panacea.
While a host of American business leaders were reportedly waiting in line to meet with Trump, Akie Abe, the widow of Shinzo Abe, received special treatment, meeting with Trump even before Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba did, attending a dinner at Trump’s Florida residence on 15 December.
This informal diplomacy model based on personal relationships could expand throughout the entire network of US foreign relations after Trump takes office. Of course, personal relationships and national policy are ultimately two separate matters. While a “bromance” between leaders can help advance bilateral relations, it is not necessarily a panacea.
A Diplomat article pointed out that despite Abe’s attempts to encourage dialogue between the US and Iran, Trump opted for a firmer policy and imposed new sanctions, undermining Abe’s efforts.
While the visual of foreign heads of state, including the Chinese leader, applauding Trump would be newsworthy, it is unlikely to happen.
The Chinese side will likely carefully assess whether Trump is offering a genuine olive branch or setting a trap. But the likelihood of the Chinese leader accepting the invitation remains low.
Chinese political culture emphasises stability and political risk aversion. Yet,Trump’s unpredictability and the US’s home-field advantage makes it difficult for China to control potential unforeseen incidents. While the visual of foreign heads of state, including the Chinese leader, applauding Trump would be newsworthy, it is unlikely to happen.
Trump, a veteran of reality television since his show debuted 20 years ago, is a master of theatrics. Even before officially taking office, he has created a suspenseful narrative, demonstrating a deft opening move.
That a single invitation could garner such widespread attention demonstrates the pivotal role of both China-US relations and the personal relationship between their leaders in shaping international dynamics. While a meeting is not happening now, the hope is for one to occur soon to prevent China-US relations from continuing its downward spiral as a result of the multi-faceted strategic competition following the inauguration of the new US administration.
This unprecedented invitation not only heralds the world’s entry into the dramatic Trump 2.0 era, but also foreshadows a period of dramatic tension in China-US relations and global affairs under Trump 2.0.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “习近平会否出席特朗普就职典礼？”.
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