From ancient kings to modern incentives: China’s struggle to boost births
Faced with a declining population, China has implemented a series of measures to boost its birthrate. Academic Zhang Tiankan evaluates the effectiveness of these policies and discusses the factors that motivate and discourage marriage and childbirth.
On 31 October 2024, the Civil Affairs Bureau in Lüliang city, Shanxi province, announced measures on its official WeChat account to enhance fertility support and promote a child-friendly society. Starting 1 January 2025, couples marrying in the city will receive a reward of 1,500 RMB (US$206) if the woman is 35 or younger. However, the reward is limited to first-time marriages for both individuals.
This reward has sparked mixed reactions. Some dismiss it, while others believe it contributes to fostering a society conducive to marriage and having children.
Demographic crisis
In recent years, China’s declining marriage and birth rates have attracted widespread attention, prompting local governments to introduce various policies to encourage marriage and childbirth.
According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriages in China first exceeded 10 million in 2008, at 10.98 million. It peaked at 13.47 million in 2013 before falling to a low of 6.84 million in 2022. In 2023, the number rose slightly to 7.68 million. However, analysts attribute this increase to a delay in marriages due to the pandemic in 2022, causing a dip and subsequent rebound. It is predicted that 2024 will see a new record low, even lower than in 2022.
On the punitive side, there are suggestions to link pensions to incentives for having children, reducing future pensions for those who have fewer or no children.
On the other hand, since the vast majority of births in China occur within marriage, a decrease in the number of marriages also means a decline in the birth rate. For example, in 2008, there were 16.08 million births in China; in 2013, this rose to 16.4 million, but by 2022, it had dropped to 9.56 million.
However, the relationship between the number of marriages and births is not absolutely proportional. For instance, in 2016, there were 11.43 million marriages, yet the number of births reached a record high of 17.86 million. Still, it is undeniable that more marriages generally lead to more births.
Carrot-and-stick approach
In the face of a steady decline in marriage and childbirth rates, governments across regions have not only introduced rewards but have also shown signs of implementing punitive measures toward those who choose not to marry or have children.
Proposals for rewards have come not just from the government but also from experts and academics, with the most prominent suggestion so far being a monthly subsidy of 1,000 RMB for families with one child, 2,000 RMB for two children and 3,000 RMB for three or more children.
On the punitive side, there are suggestions to link pensions to incentives for having children, reducing future pensions for those who have fewer or no children. Whether such a punishment is reasonable is debatable, but it is a major question whether such rewards or penalties can encourage marriage and childbirth.
Whether today or in the past, factors influencing willingness to have children are mainly about economic stability, education, and time — in other words, the cost of raising children. High costs naturally deter people from having children. Throughout history, many governments in China and abroad have implemented policies to encourage childbirth.
Goujian’s Conquest of Wu《勾践灭吴》records the following rewards: for a baby boy, two jars of wine and a dog; for a baby girl, two jars of wine and a pig; for triplets, a wet nurse; for twins, food supplies.
Learning from history?
The account of how King Goujian of the state of Yue conquered the state of Wu during the Spring and Autumn period is thought to have been the result of encouraging births, as a larger population made Yue strong enough to conquer Wu. Goujian’s Conquest of Wu《勾践灭吴》records the following rewards: for a baby boy, two jars of wine and a dog; for a baby girl, two jars of wine and a pig; for triplets, a wet nurse; for twins, food supplies.
However, following a closer look at the timeline of Goujian’s reign (496-465 BCE), this policy of providing incentives for having children to revitalise the state may be untrue. Given the periods of peace and war during his reign, the children born in times of peace (493-492 BCE) were most likely too young to play a significant role during times of war (482, 478, 473 BCE). The account of Goujian rewarding childbirth might therefore be a fabrication.
When asked about his views on childbirth, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said he had no children, and that the decision to have children is a personal choice.
Incentives or restrictions may have some impact on human reproduction, but this impact is limited. This could be because such incentives are neither substantial nor compelling enough to shift opinions and mindsets. When asked about his views on childbirth, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said he had no children, and that the decision to have children is a personal choice. However, he also said that the government needs to create a society that supports people who do decide to have babies.
For governments, creating favourable conditions for those who want to have children requires more than superficial efforts — it will take significant action and high levels of investment. Besides financial support for families with children (single or multiple), governments should fully or partially subsidise education expenses from kindergarten to university, while healthcare costs for children should also be waived or heavily reduced. Also, housing subsidies should be provided to these children when they become adults.
Let nature take its course?
On the other hand, if childbirth is viewed as a personal matter, it should be approached through the natural laws of reproduction. Nature regulates human reproduction primarily through two mechanisms: positive feedback and negative feedback.
... few families or women may choose to have children due to the considerable pain, inconvenience, time, energy and financial resources required for childbirth and child-rearing.
Human reproduction is influenced by the biological principle that “less is enough; more is of no benefit” and the natural drive to procreate. In practice, however, few families or women may choose to have children due to the considerable pain, inconvenience, time, energy and financial resources required for childbirth and child-rearing.
This also means that nature’s encouragement for humans to raise offspring is not primarily based on factors like being cared for in old age, but rather the positive reinforcement of species propagation.
Despite the challenges, childbirth can bring happiness and fulfilment to some mothers, with the entire process of sexual reproduction evolved to offer positive rewards. This feedback system is something people are only beginning to understand. For instance, having children might reward mothers with a longer lifespan and better health, while also contributing to family growth and enhanced social status.
The negative feedback mechanism for reproduction can be seen in circumstances such as famine, war and a lack of economic capacity to have children. During the two world wars and major famines in history, such as China’s Great Famine of the 1960s, birth rates naturally declined, leading to stagnation or even negative population growth.
Even so, nature has a built-in repair and reboot mechanism for population growth — during times of crisis, more girls are often born than boys, preserving hope and a foundation for human reproduction in the future.
Of course, governments can encourage childbirth, and should invest heavily in such efforts. However, the decision to have children still lies with individuals and families, as they would know what works best for their personal interests and circumstances.
