Can cash and coercion fix China’s demographic crisis?

Unconventional methods of promoting marriage and childbirth have resurfaced in China, including offering 1,500 RMB (US$209) to brides under 35, officials encouraging women to have children, and government articles debunking “pregnancy brain”.

To tackle the persistently low birth rate, China’s State Council issued a directive on 28 October outlining 13 measures to foster a more birth-friendly society. These measures aim to improve childbirth support, expand childcare systems and alleviate the financial burdens of raising children. While local governments have actively implemented these measures, some of their more unconventional approaches have faced criticism.

Shanxi’s Lüliang City announced on 31 October that starting 1 January 2025, any couple who registers their marriage locally will receive a cash reward of 1,500 RMB if the bride is no older than 35 years old. Couples who give birth in the region will also receive subsidies of 2,000 RMB for the first child, 5,000 RMB for the second and 8,000 RMB for the third.

While cash incentives for childbirth are common, offering them for marriage is unusual. Chinese netizens are sceptical that 1,500 RMB will significantly alter young people’s views on marriage, and are critical of the 35-year age limit for women as it implies that those who marry later are less valuable.

As one netizen commented, “Get married for 1,500 RMB, then divorce. Isn’t that a great deal?” 

Another outlined a get-rich-quick scheme to pocket some cash: day 1 — find a partner, tie the knot, and split the 1,500 RMB (750 RMB each!); day 2 — get divorced. Even after covering the travel and paperwork fees, you end up a few 100 RMB richer!

However, some believe that the 1,500 RMB marriage subsidy is merely symbolic, intended to create a pro-marriage social atmosphere. To prevent exploitation, a Lüliang civil affairs official clarified that the subsidy applies only to first marriages and warned against the practice of sham marriages for cash.

It’s highly unlikely that anyone would actually bother with marriage and divorce just to make a few hundred RMB. The “step-by-step plan” created by netizens is purely satirical, mocking the absurdity and inefficacy of the policy.

It is not just local subsidy measures that have backfired; publicity strategies of national departments are also facing setbacks.

On 30 October, Healthy China (健康中国), the official account of China’s National Health Commission, published a popular science article titled “The Four Benefits of Women Giving Birth” (《女性生孩子的四大好处》), claiming that hormonal changes during pregnancy can enhance brain structure, boost brain energy and make women smarter.

The article also said that “pregnancy brain” is largely psychological, attributing memory issues during and after pregnancy to the anxiety and stress of having a new baby. While intended as a rebuttal of the “pregnancy brain” phenomenon, this view was generally met with public disagreement.

One netizen sarcastically remarked, “Sure. Having ten kids will turn you into Einstein.”

Another woman joked, “Can we have a study proving that men who take care of their kids and do housework have a longer lifespan and are more attractive?” Another dryly quipped, “Having a baby reveals the true nature of your family and husband. So, yeah, smarter.”

Women’s health blogger and former obstetrician gynaecologist Liu Ceng Lou (六层楼) noted that there are currently no studies proving whether pregnancy alters a woman’s intelligence. He argued that debating this issue without scientific backing can come off as flippant and insensitive, and that focusing on the challenges young people face regarding marriage and children is a more productive step towards building a birth-friendly society.

The article was taken down just half a day after it was published due to the backlash. 

Articles and cash incentives are not the only methods employed by the state. Women across various regions have also reported that grassroots departments frequently call, urging them to have children, sometimes in an intrusive and offensive manner. 

A netizen from Wuxi, Jiangsu, Shanshanrerenai posted on Xiaohongshu last month that a subdistrict office called to ask about her last menstrual period, whether she had any plans to have children in the near future, if she had pets and so forth. The office denied that this was a form of “encouraging childbirth”, but claimed that having a pet dog was not conducive to having children.

One netizen noted that those who told callers they were not planning to marry or have children were advised to “consider a broader perspective and respond to the national call.”

A Chongqing netizen uploaded a video on Weibo that showed an employee claiming to be from the “birth promotion office” visiting a young man at his residence, urging him to find a girlfriend quickly and have children with her.

In the video, the employee could be heard berating the young man: “I don’t care if you get married or not, but you must have children. Find several girlfriends and have multiple children. Five is a clear target… it’s a crime not to have children even at the age of 33. You’ll be branded a sinner forever if this continues.”

The employee went so far as to threaten the young man, saying he would “destroy [his] stove, sofa, refrigerator and entire house” if he didn’t comply. He then gestured to an accompanying woman, claiming she “specialises in helping people have children” and could help him have five to meet his “target”.

From national departments to local governments, efforts to promote marriage and childbirth have been relentless, driven by an impending population crisis.

In 2022, officials introduced numerous policies and measures to boost marriage and birth rates after China’s population recorded its first decline in 60 years, but these measures have been unsuccessful in reversing the downward trend in fertility rates.

In 2023, China’s total fertility rate was approximately 1.0, ranking second to last among major global economies. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicted that China’s birth rate will rebound in 2024, but this resurgence is expected to last only until 2025.

While fertility rates could experience a brief resurgence during the Year of the Dragon, marriage rates continue to decline.

Data released by China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs earlier this month showed that for the first three quarters of 2024, there were 4.747 million marriage registrations nationally, a year-on-year decrease of 943,000. The total number of registrations for the year is likely to set a record low since 1980.

Common issues that deter people from having children include the high cost of raising children and the significant impact having kids will have on one’s career. This could be exactly why past policies encouraging marriage and childbirth have mainly focused on financial subsidies, or are designed to enhance support measures that will alleviate employment difficulties and the challenges pregnant women face when attempting to take leave.

For example, a 2021 plan to promote population development issued by the Jilin provincial government stated that there would be support for banks to provide eligible couples with marriage and childbirth consumer loans of up to 200,000 RMB, with increasing interest rate discounts offered in accordance with whether a couple was having a first, second or third child.

This policy was criticised for encouraging generational debt and using debt as financial leverage on couples to have more children. 

The dissatisfaction expressed by the Chinese public towards these unorthodox policies reflect, to some extent, a shift in the attitudes of youths towards marriage and raising children.

An uncertain economic environment, with increasing societal competition as well as involution, concerns about future prospects and a pursuit of personal freedom are among the many reasons that deter youths from marrying and having children. Quite a number of netizens have even declared they are “the last generation”, vowing not to get into relationships, marry, buy a house or have children in the future.

In other words, the factors that influence the young today when it comes to decisions about marriage and childbirth are no longer just economic considerations or the innate instinct to procreate, but rather personal expectations for their lives in the future. 

One netizen commented, “I won’t look for a partner, marry, or have children. I claim it’s to spare my kids from a constrained life, but the truth is I don’t want to spend my life bound by the constraints of marriage and children.”

China’s National Health Commission is conducting a new round of surveys to understand why people “do not want and do not dare to have children”. Would this survey help officials identify the shift in modern attitudes towards marriage and childbirth, and realise the need to do something beyond mechanically introducing various subsidies or issuing didactic appeals?

China’s National Health Commission is conducting a new round of surveys to understand why people are hesitant to have children. Will this effort help officials recognise shifting attitudes towards marriage and childbirth, moving them beyond superficial solutions like subsidies or pronouncements? What is clear is that using state resources to solve symptoms of declining rates of marriage and childbirth, instead of addressing their root causes, will ultimately be unsuccessful.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “花式催婚催育又来了”.

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