Fast rise, fast fall: The unravelling of American power
US President Donald Trump and his administrative team’s seemingly haphazard and reckless decision-making may not only cause global chaos but could even trigger the US’s own downfall, says Chinese academic Huang Yuan.
By law, the US president has significant administrative discretion over economic and trade policy. When American industries are adversely affected by a surge in imports, the president has the power to negotiate trade agreements, adjust tariffs (Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974), and formulate new tariff plans (Trade Expansion Act of 1962).
On 2 April, US President Donald Trump imposed a minimum benchmark tariff of 10% on US trade partners, launching a global trade war. Tariffs on Chinese products were rapidly increased to a total of 145%, and China retaliated by raising tariffs on US imports to a total of 125%.
Haphazard and reckless
The US and China recently held the first round of economic and trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland, achieving two significant breakthroughs. First, both sides agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 percentage points; second, they agreed to establish a mechanism for economic and trade consultations.
This indicated two things: firstly, the haphazardness and recklessness of the Trump administration in international affairs. Secondly, the unsustainability of behaviour that ignores rational operating principles and international market norms.
In response to Trump’s tariff policy, US think tanks such as the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have repeatedly voiced concerns, urging the US not to arbitrarily start trade wars or increase tariffs on trade partners, as this would bring the US to ruin and risk its future.
CFR senior vice-president Shannon K. O’Neill wrote that the tariff policies would marginalise the US in the international supply chain and trade system, and be left to subsist on a much smaller economic pie. By imposing tariffs to reduce imports and in turn the trade deficit, the crucial role of exports is ignored. In today’s world of globalised supply chains, imports and exports are complementary, and focusing on reducing imports while ignoring exports would restrict US’s future development.
Navin Girishankar, president of CSIS’ Economic Security and Technology Department, suggested that the US embarking on a global economic war would cause it to lose the crucial tech war.
This would plunge the world back into division, void of a dominant political vision, with hardly any cause to adequately address and safeguard the legitimate interests of small and weak countries.
No rules, no leader
Since Trump’s return to the White House, the severe damage on global governance as well as the political and economic security order has exceeded all expectations, and the deep transformation in the international social order would eventually lead to three profound consequences.
First, the US would abandon its historical role in international affairs, forsaking the core spirit of “freedom and equality” and reverting to a purely monetary- and interest-driven entity. This would plunge the world back into division, void of a dominant political vision, with hardly any cause to adequately address and safeguard the legitimate interests of small and weak countries. Meanwhile, chaos would ensue as the preservation of small countries is dependent on large powers, who are in turn pursuing expansion.
Second, it subverts the basic principles of international society established after the Second World War and the global free trade system, dragging the world back into the old order characterised by the law of the jungle and interest-driven brawls. Third, the United Nations would be relegated to an edifice or a place for empty talk and squabbles.
A terrible lack
Trump cannot be considered a politician, nor a statesman with a sense of responsibility and strategic insight on the fate of humanity. He values monetary interest above political, diplomatic and military relations, driven by three fundamental motives.
First, due to his complete lack of understanding of the logic of causality in international politics, diplomacy and military affairs, he is only able to focus on economic affairs or leverage economic relationships.
... he [Trump] has never been a successful entrepreneur with highly innovative thinking and a strong sense of social responsibility when it comes to product, technology, market and management.
Second, he wants to replace political, diplomatic and military relations with economic interest relationships. Third, he uses economic issues such as tariffs to cover up his ineptitude and incompetence in political, diplomatic and military matters.
Trump entered his father’s real estate company in his youth, and later invested in various industries such as casinos, shipping, sports and entertainment to grow his wealth. In other words, he has never been a successful entrepreneur with highly innovative thinking and a strong sense of social responsibility when it comes to product, technology, market and management. Into his second term thus far, his commercial speculation nature has been fully exposed.
Trump has no feasible plan for a ceasefire and peace for the Russia-Ukraine war. His primary intention is to gain “military honours” while taking advantage of Ukraine. The Trump administration is merely a commercial interest team with almost zero political, diplomatic or military strategic understanding and decision-making ability. They lack the right mindset to rescue Ukraine from its plight and to maintain the international justice system, as well as the proper understanding and capacity to build global governance, development and security processes.
The world needs to be highly vigilant of the global disorder caused by Trump through the downfall of the US.
Decline of the American civilisation
Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad. Indeed, Trump cannot truly “make America great” by going against the world, nor can he bring about sustainable regional and global peace, much less lead humanity’s global future on the correct path.
Trumpism would only bring turbulence, division and chaos to the US and the world. The US would increasingly turn into an extremely self-inflated but globally antagonistic state of abnormality, ultimately weakening and isolating itself from the international community. Trump is digging his own grave, as well as the US’s. The world needs to be highly vigilant of the global disorder caused by Trump through the downfall of the US.
In response to Trump’s completely irrational tariff policy and rhetoric, some professionals have remarked that from a psychology and mental health perspective, Trump treats tariff policy as well as domestic and international affairs as a game — deliberately disrupting national and international order satisfies his distorted sense of amusement.
Compared with the European and Chinese civilisation systems, the American civilisation is a modern derivative. Although the US is currently powerful, “its rise was sudden, and its fall would also be swift”.
For instance, Trump said that he had been discussing reducing tariffs with country leaders that called him, that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours, that he had a great call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, that Gaza should be developed into a holiday resort for the rich, among other things.
As president, his rhetoric and actions concerning US policy, which significantly impact international affairs, often seem boastful, erratic, emotional, and at times, extortionary, misleading and lacking coherent logic or fundamental policy expectations. Analysts opined that Trump lacks good political virtue and logical thinking ability, spewing whatever comes to his mind.
The US’s sustained development of nearly 250 years since its founding has now hit an insurmountable institutional bottleneck. First, politically, it is difficult to overcome the self-imposed institutional constraints of being a nation. Second, economically, it cannot avoid the obstacles in unsustainability caused by short-sighted quick fixes.
Compared with the European and Chinese civilisation systems, the American civilisation is a modern derivative. Although the US is currently powerful, “its rise was sudden, and its fall would also be swift”. A US that no longer has positive relations with other civilisations globally is bound to decline rapidly.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “警惕特朗普正以葬送美国方式让全球失序”.
