[Video] What the Iran war means for China
US‑Israel strikes on Iran could reverberate far beyond the Middle East, impacting China’s economy, energy security, regional influence and its ties with the US. While China maintains a cautious diplomatic approach, the unfolding Iran war could also create opportunities for it to gain leverage in its strategic rivalry with the US. ThinkChina’s Lu Lingming and Yi Jina speak with three experts to explore what the Iran war means for China.
China holds major economic and strategic stakes across the region, from Iranian oil and Gulf investments to infrastructure projects like the Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time, China must navigate its complex rivalry with the US.
Is the US targeting China by striking Iran?
Experts say the reality is nuanced: US and Israeli actions largely follow longstanding regional patterns, with conflicts involving Israel and its neighbours shaping the Middle East for decades. Still, Chinese interests are caught in the fallout. Damage to Iranian infrastructure or political shifts could disrupt China’s economy and regional influence, showing that while the war is primarily regional, China is inevitably affected.
China’s cautious diplomatic stance
Despite its partnership with Iran, China has avoided direct involvement. Its broader Middle East strategy protects deep trade and energy ties not only with Iran but also with other Gulf states. Direct engagement could destabilise these interests, a risk China is keen to avoid. As Hao Nan, a Nuclear Futures fellow (2025-2026) with the Ploughshares Fund & Horizon 2045, notes, “Iran matters, but it doesn’t matter that much.”
Dr Alessandro Arduino, affiliate lecturer at the Lau China Institute of King’s College London and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, adds that internal politics trump foreign affairs, particularly as China conducts its annual Two Sessions — a key period for economic, policy and governance decisions — while the Central Military Commission remains in transition after major personnel shake-up.
Impact on China’s energy interest
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which channels 20% of global oil, poses a major threat to global energy supplies. Much of China’s oil comes from the Gulf, but Hao Nan says the country is better prepared than many assume. China’s energy self-sufficiency remains above 80%, and oil and gas make up a small share of its primary energy consumption. Domestic production has grown, imports have diversified, and China is accelerating renewable and nuclear energy development.
Impact on Chinese investments
China’s footprint in the Middle East spans infrastructure, logistics and digital projects. Prolonged conflict and strikes on Iranian infrastructure could disrupt key transport and trade corridors, including those linked to the Belt and Road Initiative, and compromise regional investments.
Two scenarios for US-China relations
A quick US victory could strengthen the US global position and control over Iran’s resources, limiting China’s access to energy and regional opportunities. A prolonged war however, could strain US military and political resources, creating openings for China in global diplomacy and its strategic relationship with the US.
China as a potential mediator
China seeks to maintain balanced diplomatic relations with all regional actors, including the US, prioritising the protection of its economic interests, avoiding military involvement and encouraging dialogue. Nonetheless, as Associate Professor Ma Haiyun of Frostburg State University notes, its influence has limits. Brokering peace remains a complex challenge.
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