Xi and Trump set for a second-best outcome in Beijing

The world’s two most closely watched “Gemini leaders” — Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump — are set to meet in Beijing this week. Although aides and working groups on both sides have already laid the groundwork to shore up the talks, Trump’s unconventional and unpredictable style could still potentially add some drama to this showdown between Geminis.

This will be Trump’s first visit to Chinese soil since 2017, and the first visit to China by a US president in nine years. However, the two leaders have met at least six times over the past decade, including encounters on the sidelines of multilateral events. Their most recent meeting took place during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in South Korea in October last year.

For the Chinese and US leaders, this summit is a platform to make a stand and to manage risks through communication. Most analysts believe that amid China-US relations’ shift from cooperation and competition towards outright rivalry, or even confrontation, the deep structural contradictions between the two countries will be difficult to resolve, and the talks are unlikely to produce any major breakthroughs. More realistically, observers hope the summit can establish guardrails for bilateral ties and prevent serious miscalculations by either side.

Sun Chenghao, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, told Lianhe Zaobao that the importance of Trump’s visit lies in setting the tone for China-US relations for the coming year, or even for Trump’s four-year term. He said, “If it starts badly, things will become even more troublesome later on.” 

If this meeting can pave the way for Xi’s visit to the US in the second half of the year, China-US relations might remain stable this year.

Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies and director of its Center for American Studies, believes that the significance of the summit lies in building on the Busan meeting last October to advance China-US relations while maintaining stability. “It is not just about stability, but also progress. Problems need to be resolved and cooperation expanded,” he said.

Wu believes that Beijing hopes to use the summit to move China-US relations gradually from the “tactical stability” achieved at the Busan meeting towards “strategic stability”. Whether the two sides can reach further consensus on the Taiwan issue will be key to achieving such strategic stability.

Since the Busan meeting between the Chinese and US leaders, the international landscape has changed markedly, while geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has intensified significantly. The US and Israel jointly attacked Iran, Iran then blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, and the US subsequently imposed a counter-blockade, causing oil prices to surge and weighing on the global economy. Trump had originally planned to visit China at the end of March, but the trip was postponed because of the Iran conflict.

Taiwan, trade and Iran are expected to be the three main issues at the Xi-Trump meeting. The Taiwan issue has long been a central concern in negotiations between Beijing and Washington, and Chinese officials have recently intensified their emphasis that Taiwan is a red line in China-US relations that cannot be crossed. Other issues of concern to Beijing — such as extending the tariff truce, seeking US tariff reductions and loosening export controls on advanced technologies — are also expected to feature prominently in the negotiations.

Trade purchases are believed to be an area Trump cares deeply about, while persuading Beijing to pressure Tehran over Iran is also expected to be a major focus. The two sides may discuss creating a board of trade and a board of investment, while also touching on artificial intelligence issues. On 11 May, Trump also told reporters at the White House that he would also raise the case of former Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai with the Chinese leadership.

On the Taiwan issue, many analysts believe that the summit will not produce any major deal involving Taiwan. However, Beijing is expected to seek breakthroughs in two areas: first, persuading the US to reaffirm that it “does not support” Taiwan independence, or even upgrade this position to “oppose” Taiwan independence; and second, demanding that Trump halt arms sales to Taiwan during his term in office.

Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore, believes that there is no chance there will be a “grand bargain” emerging from the summit. Such a bargain would not enhance strategic stability, as the US and China are in “an intense cycle of distrust and competition”.

Fudan University’s Wu, however, said that a “grand bargain” would require a process rather than a one-off transaction. Even if this meeting does not involve such a bargain, he believes that the US would certainly have to “make some concessions” on the Taiwan issue, particularly regarding arms sales to Taiwan. He pointed out, “If you don’t make concessions, what can you get from China?”

On 11 May at the White House, Trump said that he would discuss arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, asserting that Beijing would not resort to military force against Taiwan. Some Taiwanese academics had earlier pointed out that Trump discussing arms sales to Taiwan with Xi could violate the “Six Assurances” made to Taiwan by the Reagan administration, one of which stated that the US had “not agreed to consult with the PRC on arms sales to Taiwan”.

Shao Yuqun, director of the Institute for Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, suggested that Trump’s willingness to discuss arms sales to Taiwan with Chinese leaders may be driven by two considerations. First, he may view arms sales to Taiwan in the same way as foreign trade — as something open to negotiation and the exchange of interests. Second, he may recognise that arms sales to Taiwan would hinder his efforts to stabilise US-China relations.

She hopes that Trump is driven by the second consideration, because if the US continues to expand arms sales to Taiwan, it will inevitably provoke stronger countermeasures from China, while seriously damaging China-US relations.

On the trade issues that the US is concerned about, soybeans and Boeing aircraft are expected to be included on China’s list of intended purchases from the US. Trump is drawn to big numbers and visual impact, and he also needs to use the visit to demonstrate to the American public that his trip to China has delivered major results.

Reuters reported that the China-US leaders’ meeting is expected to produce a farm deal under which China would expand its purchases of American grains and meat. However, market observers do not expect any new announcement of large-scale soybean purchases this time.

Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University of China’s School of International Studies, assessed that given China’s economic slowdown, the scale of its promised purchases from the US would “probably not be enough to help Republicans win over American voters in the midterm elections”. 

Compared with Japan and South Korea — both fellow East Asian economies — China, despite being the world’s second-largest economy, is unlikely to offer a particularly large list of intended purchases. Japan and South Korea have pledged US$550 billion and US$350 billion respectively in investment in the US in exchange for lower US tariffs.

Shanghai-based international relations scholar Shen Dingli believes the most likely outcome is that neither China nor the US will get exactly what it wants, but both may secure their second-best option: “The most likely scenario is one in which neither side explicitly agrees to your demands, nor outrightly rejects them.”

Several analysts assessed that, due to the Iran war, the US has found itself in a more passive position in China-US negotiations, leaving Trump relatively weaker at the negotiating table. Denis Simon, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute, argued that the psychological dimension of Trump’s persona must be taken into account.

Simon noted that Trump had said that Xi would give him a “big, fat hug” when he goes to Beijing. While most would see this as a casual remark, for Trump it carries deeper significance: he needs to affirm that he is at the stature of Xi, and more importantly, that he is the one in control of the overall situation.

Meanwhile, Tsinghua University’s Sun evaluated that both China and the US are currently highly confident: China is pursuing the “Chinese Dream” and the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, while the US advances the governing vision of “Make America Great Again”. Both sides see themselves as being on an upward trajectory, and neither is willing to make concessions easily.

As for whether China and the US will issue a joint statement after the leaders’ summit, Edgard Kagan, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said on an online public forum that this is unlikely. However, both sides are likely to release separate statements.

Sun thinks that what will be worth watching is what tone Trump adopts in his social media posts after the summit.

He said that the best outcome would be for Trump to announce, in an upbeat tone, that he had personally invited Xi to visit the US, and that Xi had accepted. “This would ensure that the two heads of state will at least meet once more this year, help create strategic expectations, stabilise China-US relations, and also be beneficial for third parties beyond China and the US,” he said.

Trump has barely departed, and Russian President Vladimir Putin may arrive shortly after. Recent reports suggest that Putin could travel to China as early as next week.

Da Wei, director of the Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, said that Putin’s visit to China stems from the annual reciprocal visit mechanism between China and Russia, rather than being deliberately scheduled after Trump’s visit. However, he added that it is “quite good for China and Russia, as strategic partners, to keep each other in the loop”.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as ““习特会”摊牌稳局 “大交易”料难达成”.

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