Xi raises stakes over Taiwan, warns US of ‘clash or even conflict’

Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed during talks with visiting US President Donald Trump on 14 May at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing that the Taiwan issue is the most important in China-US relations, warning: “If handled properly, bilateral relations can remain generally stable. If mishandled, the two countries will clash or even come into conflict, pushing the entire US-China relationship into a very dangerous situation.”

Taiwanese scholars interviewed said Beijing’s wording on Taiwan this time was clearly stronger than in the past, carrying implicit military and security overtones and suggesting a heightened sense of urgency over the issue.

Xi also said that Taiwan independence and peace across the Taiwan Strait are fundamentally incompatible, adding that maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the greatest common denominator between China and the US, and urged Washington to handle the issue with the utmost caution.

Wang Hsin-hsien, director of the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told Lianhe Zaobao that in recent years, Beijing’s Taiwan-related rhetoric during China-US leaders’ meetings had typically described Taiwan as “the core of China’s core interests”, “the foundation of the political foundation of China-US relations”, and “a red line that must not be crossed”. 

During a video call between Xi and then US President Joe Biden in 2022, Xi also warned that mishandling the Taiwan issue would have a “disruptive impact” on China-US relations. However, Wang noted that this time round, Xi used the phrase “clash or even come into conflict”, which was more concrete than “disruptive impact” and also carried implicit military and security implications.

Wang believes that “this indicates that Beijing perceives the Taiwan issue as becoming more urgent”, particularly as it defines “Taiwan independence” as the core factor undermining peace in the Taiwan Strait, signalling a desire for the US to jointly manage “Taiwan independence”.

Wang noted that, when Trump was asked about Taiwan ahead of his visit to China, he suggested that if Taiwan could elect the “right president”, war could likely be avoided. Wang further argued that the US side likely had prior knowledge of Xi’s stance, and that Trump’s comments were therefore, to some extent, directed at Beijing — signalling an understanding of why China has become increasingly urgent and forceful in its Taiwan-related rhetoric.

However, Wang also noted that ahead of the visit, Trump had remarked that Taiwan lies just 68 miles from mainland China, but 9,500 miles from the US. The implication — akin to “distant water cannot quench a near fire” — was directed at Taiwan, signalling that it must bolster its own defences if confronted with the risk of war.

Wang thinks that this line of reasoning aligns with the logic of the “MAGA camp” (supporters of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda): it seeks to prevent the US from shouldering excessive security costs while simultaneously urging Taiwan to reduce political risks and strengthen its own defensive capabilities.

However, Wang judged that the US is unlikely to shift its stance on Taiwan from “not supporting Taiwan independence” to “opposing Taiwan independence”.

He believes that, after some adjustment, the MAGA faction and the Republican establishment have struck a balance on the Taiwan Strait issue. The Republican establishment would caution Trump that wording on Taiwan is highly sensitive, while the MAGA faction sees the Taiwan Strait issue as leverage against mainland China, a means to encourage Taiwan to increase arms purchases, and a way to deepen US–Taiwan military-industrial ties. As a result, the US may not need to make concessions in its formal policy statements.

Amid the meeting in Beijing between the Chinese and US heads of state, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that mainland China is the sole risk to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and said that it would continue to cooperate with the US and other countries to ensure regional prosperity.

According to reports from ETtoday and Agence France-Presse, Taiwanese foreign ministry spokesperson Hsiao Kuang-wei said on 14 May that Taiwan is committed to maintaining the status quo and ensuring that peace and security in the Taiwan Strait are not threatened or undermined. 

By contrast, he asserted that China continues to carry out threatening and harassing activities in the East China Sea, South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and other areas around Taiwan, adding that the sole source of instability in the Taiwan Strait is China’s conduct of authoritarian expansionism.

Hsiao reiterated that the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are “not subordinate to each other”, and that Beijing has no right to represent Taiwan in making any claims on the international stage. As is currently the case, the various grey-zone operations and military intimidation carried out by the People’s Liberation Army in areas surrounding the Taiwan Strait demonstrate that “the Beijing authorities are the sole risk to peace and stability in the region”.

Hsiao said that as a responsible member of the international community, Taiwan will continue to work closely with the US and like-minded countries to jointly safeguard peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, as well as freedom, openness and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “分析：习近平涉台表述较过去更重　凸显北京急迫感” and “台外交部：中国大陆是台海和平稳定唯一风险”.

Related: Trump in Beijing: Why China may miss Trump after 2029 | Xi and Trump set for a second-best outcome in Beijing