Can boosting immigration resolve China’s population crisis?

“The young can’t find jobs, while the old can’t retire; it’s as if all our life, we are out of sync.”

After the media reported on 10 September that China’s National People Congress would review delaying the legal retirement age, it quickly became a hot topic of discussion on Chinese social media, with some netizens lamenting the news. 

With the delay of the legal retirement age imminent, the Chinese people of all age groups are upset.

The youth unemployment rate is at a record high, and there already is a sizeable group of “rotten-tail kids” (烂尾娃, a play on the term “rotten-tail” (unfinished) buildings, referring to youth struggling and facing unemployment).

The young are concerned that securing jobs would be even more difficult as the middle-aged and elderly continue to hold on to jobs. China’s pension system is also under pressure, with the ageing population set to gradually widen the pension gap. The middle- and old-aged are worried that they will not receive their pension once it is time to retire.

Chinese academics have pointed out that China has not made any major adjustments to its retirement age system since it was established in the 1950s. Hence, there is a misalignment in light of the present ageing population structure as well as the social and economic development. The current legal retirement age in China is 60 for men, 55 for women in white-collar work and 50 for women in blue-collar work. 

China has continually sounded the alarm bells for a population crisis in recent years. The country’s fertility rate fell below the warning line of 1.5 in 2020 to just 1.3, which is even lower than Japan, an ageing society with a low fertility rate. In 2022, China experienced a negative population growth for the first time in 61 years. And in 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country, a title China had held for many years. 

China’s immense population resource has been a long-term driver of its domestic economy, but a shrinking and ageing population could significantly impact both economic growth and geopolitical dynamics. According to renowned demographer Yi Fuxian, it is a youthful India that poses a greater challenge to the US, rather than an ageing China. 

Economic development is the best contraceptive — this statement vividly describes the global population challenges in the post-industrial era, and this is also applicable to China today.

From 2016, when China relaxed its family planning policy to allow couples to have a second child and subsequently a third child, to now considering delaying the retirement age, the Chinese government has focused on the population issue.     

An approach often adopted by other countries, i.e. the most direct and readily implemented solution of an immigration policy to draw in foreigners, is rarely discussed in China.

In August, Dudley Poston, a professor at the Texas A&M University in the US, stated in an article carried by academic website The Conversation that China’s population problem can only be truly solved by mass immigration. He added that if an active immigration policy is not implemented, China will be half as large as it is today by the beginning of the next century and will be one of the oldest countries — if not the oldest country — in the world.

Poston felt that even as the Chinese government has plans to raise the retirement age gradually in the next five years to ease the pressure on the pension funds, it does nothing to address the country’s serious underlying demographic problems.

Poston referenced data by the United Nations (UN) and pointed out that by the year 2100, more than half of China’s population would be over 60, which would place immense pressure on the labour market and the economy. A reduction in the labour force and an increase in the number of dependents would bring serious social and economic challenges to China.

In 2020, well-known WeChat account “Niu Tan Qin” (牛弹琴) published an article stating that, according to estimates by the UN in 2017, even when including data on residents from Hong Kong and Macau moving to mainland China, China has the lowest percentage of migrants in the total population, at only about 0.07%, which is even lower than that of North Korea. 

In traditional immigration countries such as the US, Germany and Australia, the percentage of migrants stands at 15%, 19% and 30% respectively. Even the percentage of foreigners in countries with more conservative immigration policies is higher than in China, such as Japan at about 2% and South Korea at about 3%.

Why is the percentage of foreign residents in China so low? Western media claimed that this is related to China’s migration management policy objectives, which involves ensuring security, protecting stability and promoting development.

There are 56 ethnic groups in China, with the Hans accounting for over 90% of the total. In a relatively ethnically and culturally homogenous environment, the problems posed by foreign groups can be easily magnified. For example, during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, Guangzhou strengthened the monitoring of foreign residents in the city, drawing the ire of several African governments. This was despite Guangzhou authorities asserting that there was equal treatment of Chinese citizens and foreigners. 

As Chinese is not an international lingua franca, language barriers, coupled with China’s own massive population of migrant workers available for labour jobs, are possible factors contributing to the relatively low number of foreigners moving to China, regardless of whether they are high-skilled or low-skilled.

Most importantly, China sets high eligibility thresholds for immigrant visas, such that only high-end talents and foreign investors who make significant investments have greater access to Chinese green cards. This is also the reason why Chinese green cards are one of the most difficult to obtain. According to Chinese media reports, relevant statistics show that between 2004 and 2018, China issued an average of just over 500 green cards per year. Meanwhile, the US issues one million green cards annually.      

China established the National Immigration Administration in 2018. Two years later, the Ministry of Justice released a draft of the regulations on the management of permanent residency of foreigners for public consultation, which sparked controversy. The comment section was even closed at one point. 

Many Chinese netizens are unhappy that the threshold for foreigners to obtain residency is too low, and are concerned about foreigners competing with local residents for resources after obtaining permanent residency in China. Then Global Times editor-in-chief Hu Xijin summarised that China is not an immigration country and that there was no need to become one as well. 

If delaying retirement age does not defuse the population crisis, will China, like many developed countries, embark on the path of attracting foreign immigrants?

Chinese historian Ge Chengyong once summarised ten features of cosmopolitanism in the Tang dynasty, which included not only allowing foreigners to enter and reside in the country but also permitting people from other ethnic groups to participate in politics and hold official positions.

In today’s context, when foreigners, especially high-end talent, actively seek to embrace China and wish to migrate there, the actualisation of Chinese-style modernisation is likely just around the corner.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国延迟退休或引入移民？”.

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