Articles by Alicia García Herrero

What does the Iran crisis mean for the global economy?

The turmoil stirred up by the Iran crisis is causing havoc in the global economy. But despite the US’s best efforts to deny China’s access to key energy supplies, Beijing seems to be coping with the crisis better than expected, not only because of its stockpile reserves, but also because of its quiet diplomacy. Resilience over raw force appears to be winning as the conflict drags on, observes Alicia García Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis.

Alicia García Herrero

Slow burn: China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and the art of endurance

Amid global uncertainty, Beijing’s 15th Five-Year Plan doesn’t promise a new miracle — but mastery through control. With AI, clean tech, and quiet confidence, China’s path is less about catching up to the West than outlasting it. Economist Alicia García Herrero offers her read.

Alicia García Herrero

Can Trump reroute Asia’s trade?

US President Donald Trump is clearly focused on Southeast Asian nations reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains. Vietnam’s transshipment clause and Indonesia’s hefty purchase commitments signal a broader US aim to reshape regional trade dynamics and possibly isolate China economically, but that will be easier said than done, says economist Alicia García Herrero.

Alicia García Herrero

Trump’s trade bomb: Collateral damage to the global order

Following the announcement of US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, rising trade tensions could unleash a new era of protectionism, not only undermining the global trading system but also hurting the US economy, says economist Alicia García Herrero.

Alicia García Herrero

Can China’s belated stimulus package reverse its economic deceleration?

Economist Alicia García Herrero notes that the recent stimulus measures announced by the People’s Bank of China will do little to reverse China’s economic deceleration, short of reforms to address economic imbalances.

Alicia García Herrero

Global stock market rout: Asian financial markets could see another meltdown

Economist Alicia Herrero says that 5 August’s “Black Monday” global stock market rout may not be a one-off event. Much of the story will unfold in Asia. In particular, what happens in Japan’s financial markets may have global impacts and will surely have regional ripple effects.

Alicia García Herrero

2024 will be about Western economic normalisation, China's deceleration and India's catch-up

Economist Alicia García Herrero gives an overview of the global economic outlook in 2024, highlighting that gains in real income, among other factors, should help with the soft landing in the US while the eurozone should grow faster than the year before, having left the energy crisis aside. China will continue to decelerate slowly but steadily while the rest of emerging Asia will do well.

Alicia García Herrero

The dangerous link between China's real estate demise, the economy and the financial system

With Chinese property giant Evergrande filing for bankruptcy in the US and other companies like Country Garden tottering on the brink, China's property sector is plunging further into a crisis that could have major ramifications on the country's real economy and financial sector. Economist Alicia García Herrero explains.

Alicia García Herrero

China's overseas lending needs a full-fledged debt restructuring

China finds itself in a similar predicament as Japan in the 1970s, when the latter was a major lender to the Latin American countries which eventually suffered a major debt crisis in the 1980s. Now a major lender to various developing countries, especially after Covid, China's apparent approach of kicking the can down the road means that time bombs of massive defaults are waiting to go off.

Alicia García Herrero

A geopolitical read of HSBC's potential split-up

While the drama over a potential split-up of HSBC is still unfolding, what is clear is that geopolitical tensions may raise the stakes on potential financial decoupling down the road. Mixed West-East financial institutions such as HSBC stand at the forefront of the transitions and realignments under way.

Alicia García Herrero

China's pro-Russia stance in the Ukraine war could negatively impact the Chinese economy

The immediate impact of the Ukraine war on the Chinese economy remains limited except for high commodity prices, assesses economist Alicia García Herrero. But the full impact will depend on the political decisions China makes on the Ukraine war. China seems keen to abide by the letter of the law to comply with Western sanctions on Russia, but not so much in terms of the spirit of the law. By taking risks and helping Russia as much as it is able to, will it get caught in the crossfire between the West and Russia?

Alicia García Herrero