Articles by Qi Dongtao

Taiwan’s failed recall and the uncertain road ahead with China

Following the complete failure of the recall vote in Taiwan, the Lai Ching-te government and the Democratic Progressive Party were slow to take responsibility for a defeat that took them by surprise. What lies ahead for Taiwan and cross-strait relations? Commentator Qi Dongtao analyses the situation.

Qi Dongtao

11 Aug 2025

Will the world favour China as the US loses credibility? 

The US has shown its firm stance against China during the Shangri-La Dialogue, while China has seemingly taken a step back. Commentator Qi Dongtao remarks that this may be in China’s favour.

Qi Dongtao

11 Jun 2025

Has Trump abandoned Taiwan?

US President Donald Trump’s consistent stance on Taiwan suggests that he might not be as willing as his predecessor to put in a lot of effort on building a deterrence system against China centred on the Taiwan issue — in his eyes, there is little tangible benefit for the US from doing so, say academics Li Xiaodong and Qi Dongtao.

Li Xiaodong , Qi Dongtao

22 Apr 2025

Taiwan on its own? US rethinks global security and China strategy

How will US President Donald Trump’s isolationist and protectionist outlook impact Europe and other parts of the world that have been relying heavily on the US for support? Commentator Qi Dongtao tells us more about Trump’s global vision and how it will impact the world order and reshape spheres of influence, including mainland China and Taiwan.

Qi Dongtao

17 Mar 2025

What Trump 2.0 means for Taiwan

US President-elect Donald Trump’s mercurial stance on the Taiwan issue has been a source of anxiety for Taiwan. Though once seen as pro-Taiwan, he now views Taiwan as a freeloading competitor, which could prove detrimental for Taiwan’s security. However, it may be too early to tell which direction Trump’s Taiwan policies will take, says political commentator Qi Dongtao.

Qi Dongtao

02 Dec 2024

Must one hate mainland China to love Taiwan?

Commentator Qi Dongtao gives his take on so-called radical Taiwan independence in Taiwan and popular support for armed reunification in mainland China, and how such forms of "patriotic nationalism" are making it difficult for both sides of the Taiwan Strait to come to an understanding.

Qi Dongtao

06 Mar 2024

William Lai could still pursue 'radical Taiwan independence'

Commentator Qi Dongtao notes that even with pro-independence William Lai as Taiwan's president-elect, he may not be as aggressive as might be expected, as the US might have counselled moderation, while Beijing's possible reactions would also be taken into consideration. However, that does not mean that the Taiwan Strait will be peaceful.

Qi Dongtao

05 Feb 2024

US and China should jointly manage the radical Taiwan independence tendency of William Lai

Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate William Lai may not have the trust of the US or mainland China when it comes to cross-strait relations, says East Asian Institute senior research fellow Qi Dongtao. Hence, China and the US would do well to work together to ensure that there is no repeat of a threat of a movement torwards a radical Taiwan independence that was seen during the Chen Shui-bian administration.

Qi Dongtao

20 Dec 2023

Will former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's China visit win support for the KMT?

East Asian Institute senior research fellow Qi Dongtao analyses the significance of former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's upcoming visit to mainland China. Could history repeat itself and the visit be a harbinger of a marked strengthening of ties between the mainland and the KMT, leading to a victory over the DPP in the 2024 elections?

Qi Dongtao

22 Mar 2023

China normalising military measures in the Taiwan Strait

Mainland China is exerting increasing pressure on Taiwan following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, with the military countermeasures showing the possibility of the normalisation of military measures. Academic Qi Dongtao believes that in managing the Taiwan issue, mainland China will repeat its strategic determination and patience seen in handling the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands and the South China Sea.

Qi Dongtao

16 Aug 2022

More mainland Chinese elites supporting armed unification with Taiwan: A cause for concern?

Findings of a 2019 survey covering nine major Chinese cities show that mainland Chinese supporting armed unification with Taiwan tend to be male, highly educated urbanites who are often Communist Party members. While this group makes up just about 50% of the respondents and includes those who see armed unification as a last resort as well as those who think it should be an immediate recourse, Qi Dongtao cautions that the rise of radical nationalism should not be ignored.

Qi Dongtao

30 Aug 2021

Media guru Chao Shao-kang's return to Taiwan politics: Will this unite or divide the Kuomintang?

Chao Shao-kang, chairman of the China Broadcasting Corporation and a former luminary of the Kuomintang (KMT), declared recently that he was returning to politics and would contest the party chairmanship in July and the presidential election in 2024. His high-profile return reminds Taiwan watchers of former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu - another KMT prodigal son who made good before his star fizzled out at the 2020 presidential elections. Will Chao walk in Han's path and more importantly, can the KMT be rejuvenated with this breath of fresh air?

Qi Dongtao

02 Mar 2021