Can Trump-Xi personal diplomacy keep rivalry in check?

(Edited and refined by Candice Chan, with the assistance of AI translation.)

Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US from 23 to 25 September. Amid global turbulence, upheaval and overlapping crises, the fact that the Chinese and US leaders are engaging in another round of in-depth talks with reciprocal visits less than six months apart will undoubtedly provide a much-needed boost to global stability and development.

Since US President Donald Trump began his second term in January 2025, the two leaders have met twice, spoken on the phone five times and exchanged several letters. Such frequent communication sends an important message to both countries and the wider world that the China-US bilateral relationship should be stabilised and managed, while continuing to explore opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation. Since the start of Trump’s second term, the most striking feature of China-US relations has been the emergence of leader-level diplomacy as the key driver for both countries to navigate an increasingly difficult relationship.

In managing what is arguably the most complex yet consequential bilateral relationship in contemporary international politics, Xi has consistently emphasised the guiding role of leader-level diplomacy and the principles of “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation”, while promoting communication, dialogue and cooperation across the board.

Trump, for his part, has made major adjustments to America’s national security strategy during his second term and is keenly aware that stable China-US relations are indispensable to US strategic interests. Despite strong anti-China forces at home, he has made it clear that there is strategic value in maintaining stability in relations with Beijing, for which there is no substitute.

This has been an especially active year for diplomacy between the Chinese and US leaders. The frequency of their meetings and exchanges sends a positive message that, with the relationship effectively managed, China-US ties need to “stabilise and improve”.

Busy between US and China

Notably, ahead of the previous two leaders’ meetings, senior officials from both sides held high-level economic and trade talks that produced important results. Ahead of Xi’s latest visit to the US, Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang travelled to New York on 19 September for high-level economic and trade consultations with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other senior officials.

Speaking to the media on 20 September, Bessent said the talks were very successful. It is not too much to expect the latest meeting between the Chinese and US presidents to make headway on issues such as reciprocal tariff reductions covering RMB 200 billion (US$29.9 billion) worth of goods, as well as greater openness in markets, technology and investment.

Competition between China and the US in artificial intelligence (AI) has intensified recently, with Washington repeatedly playing up the “China threat” narrative. AI has emerged as a new source of disagreement and strategic rivalry in bilateral relations. The positive signals from the talks between He and Bessent in New York could open the way for China and the US to avoid division and confrontation over AI and establish institutionalised mechanisms for communication and dialogue. This will also be one of the key issues to watch at the forthcoming leaders’ meeting.

Strengthening economic and trade consultations and cooperation, while reducing the risk of strategic competition leading to further “decoupling and severing of supply chains” in trade, markets and technology, is essential if China-US relations are to “stabilise and improve”. During Trump 2.0, the US has waged a trade war against China and continued to tighten technological restrictions as China catches up in AI and other high-tech fields.

AI likely to be a major issue

Yet, as the world’s two largest economies, China and the US need to maintain openness and cooperation in technology, markets and industry. This is crucial to the sustainable development of both countries and the wider world, and is also central to the role of leader-level diplomacy in keeping bilateral relations on a constructive path. With another presidential meeting approaching, the continued high-level economic and trade talks reflects their belief in the need to reconcile their countries’ economic interests while expanding the scope for cooperation.

AI is an important arena of competition and friction in China-US relations, but more importantly, it should also be a strategic area for dialogue and cooperation. The world has entered a fourth industrial revolution driven by AI. As the technology becomes increasingly embedded in all aspects of life, establishing effective rules for AI governance and preventing or managing the potential risks it poses to humanity are responsibilities that China and the US must shoulder as major powers, as well as a shared expectation of the international community.

Confrontation and division between China and the US in advanced AI technologies must therefore be avoided if global sustainable development is to be promoted. AI is likely to feature prominently in discussions at the forthcoming leaders’ meeting. If the summit can launch regular China-US dialogue and communication on the issue, it would mark an important step towards realising the new vision for bilateral ties endorsed by the two leaders in May this year: the development of a constructive and strategically stable China-US relationship.

If the current bipolar competition between China and the US in AI were to descend into outright division and confrontation, it would be disastrous for the global industrial revolution of the AI era. Competition over AI could spiral out of control into comprehensive confrontation encompassing the military and security spheres as well as geotechnology and geostrategy. Ahead of the China-US leaders’ meeting in Washington, positive signals have emerged about greater information-sharing on AI and the possible establishment of an institutionalised dialogue. Such developments will come as a relief to the international community.

Sending a message

Even more encouraging is the renewed vigour of China-US leader-level diplomacy this year, which is beginning to send an important message to the political establishments and societies of both countries about how the bilateral relationship should be viewed and how their respective policy rhetoric should be framed. In a recent media interview, Trump publicly described China as a friendly country, Xi as a good friend, and China-US relations as an important partnership for the US.

Signals from the White House indicate that the Trump administration will accord Xi a warm, high-level reception. Trump and his wife are expected not only to greet Xi personally at Joint Base Andrews, but also to host a state dinner at the White House and accompany him to the National Archives, home to a rich collection of archival materials chronicling the history of China-US exchanges. Since Trump began his second term, Britain’s King Charles III has been the only visiting dignitary to be honoured with a state dinner. Xi will be the second foreign leader to receive such treatment.

Xi has repeatedly stressed that the vitality of China-US relations lies in society, that its foundation lies with the people, and its future lies with the young. By demonstrating in various ways the importance both leaders attach to bilateral relations, as well as the goodwill they bring to managing those ties, their meeting could help temper the hostility towards China that has persisted in US politics, the media and public opinion since 2017. It could also help in moderating the increasingly emotional nationalism seen in China’s online sphere. Nothing can take the place of leader-level diplomacy in strategically guiding China-US relations, particularly in preventing a relationship already defined by strategic competition from descending into bloc confrontation and division.

No quick fix

Whatever the outcome of the talks, the structural and long-term strategic competition between China and the US will not fundamentally change in the short term. Yet as the most important, complex and consequential bilateral relationship in global politics today, China-US relations need the steady hand of leader-level diplomacy. By grounding their engagement in the principles of peaceful development, mutual respect and win-win cooperation, the two leaders can help steer the relationship towards greater stability and more constructive development. In the evolution of contemporary international relations, this is one of the most positive signs of our times.

It also represents a return to the climactic “Hall of Prayer for Good Harvests” moment in China-US relations, going back to Trump’s visit to Beijing in May this year, when Xi accompanied him to the Hall of Prayer for Good Harvests at the Temple of Heaven, and the two leaders posed for a photograph in front of the historic building.

The Hall of Prayer for Good Harvests was a sacred site where emperors of the Ming and Qing dynasties performed rituals honouring heaven, earth and humanity. While the leaders of China and the US come from different backgrounds, have different governing styles and must safeguard different national interests, they share a respect for heaven, earth and humanity. Preserving these three forms of respect between the two leaders not only gives them their greatest common language, but also provides the foundation and conviction for China and the US to shoulder their responsibilities as major powers in the 21st century.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “新一轮中美首脑会晤值得期待”.

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