Trump’s China thaw will hit a Washington wall

After two acrimonious but brief Trump administration stand-offs with Beijing featuring massive tariffs and strict export controls in April and October 2025, both sides have seen the wisdom of stabilising relations and seeking greater cooperation. Thus far, there have been two cordial summits, with two more expected in 2026. How far this emphasis on the positive will go in improving relations remains uncertain. 

Trump’s inclination to accommodate China

President Xi Jinping prides himself on China’s consistent foreign policy, avoiding significant compromise with the US, as well as with America’s allies, partners and many other foreign governments. President Trump is much more powerful than in his first administration and freer to pursue his avowed interest in pragmatic deals with China, even at the expense of Taiwan, Japan and other American allies and partners. He has maintained a unique position among US leaders in repeatedly praising Xi Jinping, showing great trust in the Chinese leader, and seeking many mutually beneficial deals with him. 

To increase the likelihood of positive outcomes in his administration’s deal making with China, President Trump has recently curbed public support for Taiwan, and declared that his planned arms sales to Taiwan are negotiating cards, implying that they could be dropped in seeking greater cooperation with Beijing. He also relaxed US export controls on the sale of advanced computer chips sought by China.

Bipartisan checks on Trump

Against this background, this commentary explains two major reasons why President Trump’s inclination to accommodate China will remain constrained, precluding more than limited progress in advancing positive US relations with China. First is the durability of the so-called Washington consensus: a movement involving bipartisan congressional majorities viewing China’s challenges to the US as grave dangers to America’s national security and well-being, who have worked closely with like-minded administration leaders, building widespread public support in hardening policies toward China over the past eight years.

What gets little media attention in Trump’s second term is how resolute the bipartisan majorities in Congress have been in continuing their efforts to counter a wide array of serious challenges posed by Chinese behaviour. With over 600 bills, Congress throughout 2025-2026 remained in line with its impressive record since 2018, focused on defending America from a wide range of often very serious security, economic and governance challenges posed by Chinese government behaviour.

Support for Taiwan remains Congress’s legislative anchor in China policy; the bipartisan congressional focus has been much more on deterrence of China’s ambitions as opposed to the recent administration's emphasis on deal-making and trade stabilisation. Congress reinforced legal support for imposing export controls, restricting outbound investment, controlling advanced semiconductor exports to China, advancing planning for countering Beijing in Taiwan contingencies and securing rare earth minerals for American manufacturing.

Chinese policies continue to draw opposition in the US

The issues ranged from the war with Iran, control of Greenland, support for Ukraine, controversial funding arrangements for a White House ballroom and for the assailants in the 6 January attack on the Capitol in 2021, and legislation precluding auditing Trump family income tax returns.

Republicans were particularly active in efforts with Democrats and on their own to stop the White House easing restrictions on the sale of advanced semiconductors to China, and in warning the President about compromising Taiwan’s interests in his negotiations with Xi Jinping.

The second reason constraining Trump’s inclinations toward accommodating China and weakening US countermeasures against China is President Xi’s determination to sustain China’s current foreign policy and practices. Those policies and practices continue to pose major negative consequences for the United States, its allies and partners and many others. They are the central justification for the ongoing hardening of American relations with China, led by bipartisan majorities in Congress, supported by many in the Executive Branch, and backed by majority negative views of Xi Jinping’s China in US public opinion and mainstream media. 

Backlash against Trump would be significant

The stakes in this broad ranging effort by the Washington consensus to counter Chinese actions are seen as much higher than other world challenges. They will determine whether or not the US will remain free and secure in a world order that could be dominated by China to the major detriment of the US.

What this means for President Trump today is that there is substantial risk of large-scale backlash against significantly compromising with Beijing on Taiwan, export controls and other sensitive matters in US-China relations. Congress, the media and the Democratic Party are well prepared to highlight the wide range of negative consequences of Chinese behaviour, portraying President Trump as naïve, weak and grossly ineffective in defending American national interests. Such backlash would add to the widespread American rebuke Trump has already been enduring as a result of his ill-considered attack on Iran. 

In sum, Trump is forecast to avoid these negative consequences by limiting his accommodation of China. But if he gambles and goes ahead with substantial compromises on Taiwan and export controls, their significance and implementation will be seriously weakened by bipartisan congressional backlash, widely supported by the American public and media.

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