China’s space rise is real — yet key gaps still keep the US ahead

A report by a US think tank has found that China’s space industry is narrowing the innovation gap with the US, warning that if the US does not take decisive action soon, China will claim the top spot in the global space economy.

Ahead in navigation

On 8 June, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a US-based think tank, released a report assessing the gap between China and the US across a range of space-sector subfields.

The report found that the US remains ahead in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite broadband networks and reusable launch vehicles, with China yet to master certain critical technologies. However, China has overtaken the US in Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) satellites, Earth Observation (EO) satellites, and anti-satellite warfare capabilities. In space station development, the two countries are considered evenly matched.

The report said China is less innovative than the US in LEO broadband satellites, but has ambitious plans to deploy two satellite constellations, Qianfan and Guowang, totalling around 28,000 satellites by 2030.

In terms of reusable rockets, the report said China’s greatest challenge at present is the lack of an operational reusable rocket. While there are numerous launch companies in China, some of which have made progress on specific components, none have completed a flawless test of a fully integrated system.

China, however, has the edge in PNT satellites, which are critical for maritime navigation and supply chain management, while also being vital in coordinating military operations, making PNT one of the most important dual-use space technologies today.

According to the report, China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) is more innovative than the Global Positioning System (GPS). With around 50 active satellites in a multi-orbit system and inter-satellite links, BeiDou provides more PNT data than GPS’s approximately 37 Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) satellites, contributing to improved positioning accuracy.

Building at speed

Another area where China holds the edge is EO satellites, which are useful in precision agriculture and disaster prevention, as well as military intelligence gathering and coordinating battlefield operations. The report noted that the US was the leader in EO for a long time but is now behind China in several aspects including visible, radar and hyperspectral imaging.

The report also cited US military intelligence suggesting that the People’s Liberation Army aims to use counterspace operations to deter foreign military action and has been developing antisatellite (ASAT) ground and space weapons. At the same time, it quoted the US Space Force claiming that it will soon begin the development of similar technologies for warfighting in space.

The report concluded that, overall, the US remains the most innovative country in terms of space technology, but that China has become a genuine threat to US leadership. “If the United States does not take decisive action soon, China will claim the top spot in the global space economy,” it stated.

Limited by launch capacity

Simon Gwozdz, CEO of Equatorial Space Systems, told Lianhe Zaobao that China possesses one of the world’s most comprehensive and complete space industry ecosystems, encompassing downstream and upstream capabilities, from satellite manufacturing and launch to data processing. “In many ways Chinese commercial space companies have achieved qualitative parity with their American counterparts in terms of technological maturity,” he noted.

However, he pointed out that a significant gap remains between China and the US in terms of scale. The US currently operates more than 78% of the world’s satellites in orbit, compared with just 8% for China. The disparity is even more pronounced in the lucrative LEO segment, with the US accounting for 86% of satellites and China with just 4%.

Gwozdz added that this substantial gap can be attributed directly to differences in launch capacity. Last year, the US launched more than 2,700 tonnes of payload, the vast majority of it carried by commercial space operators. By contrast, China launched just 315 tonnes, accounting for roughly 10% of global launch capacity, with most launches still conducted by state-run space agencies.

He noted that a small number of Chinese commercial rocket companies have successfully placed satellites into orbit, with some achieving relatively advanced technological breakthroughs. However, expanding overall launch capacity is far more challenging than scaling up a satellite factory, owing to constraints such as geography, airspace management, and launchpad availability.

Gwozdz said, “While China’s ambitions are clear… launch capacity constraints and relative isolation of Chinese companies from overseas launch options may take it many years to fulfil [catching up with and surpassing the US].”

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “美智库：中国航天业正缩小与美国创新差距”.

Related: From moonshots to market share: China’s Space+ strategy | [Big read] The US-China moon race is more dangerous than ever