Democrats’ midterm victory puts Trump’s China policy to the test

(Edited and refined by Candice Chan, with the assistance of AI translation.)

The Republican Party was routed in the US midterm elections, with the Democrats securing majorities in both chambers of Congress. American academics interviewed believe that US President Donald Trump’s China policy will now face greater political constraints, while divisions between the White House and Congress over Taiwan, technology and economic security could deepen, putting efforts to establish a “constructive and strategically stable US-China relationship” to the test. The upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen will be a key opportunity to gauge the future direction of bilateral ties.

Chinese academics, however, believe that American midterm voters were more concerned about the cost of living and rising prices, rather than about China. While the Democrats’ victory represents a political setback for Trump, it is unlikely to alter the general course of US-China relations.

The US midterm elections have also attracted considerable attention in China. On 4 November, topics such as “Trump says midterm elections have not dealt him a blow” briefly trended on Weibo. The Shanghai Composite Index also surged 2.2% that day, posting its biggest single-day gain in seven months. According to Reuters, besides Chinese government support measures to buoy the market, news of the Democrats’ victory also offered Chinese investors a catalyst for buying in.

Aftermath of US midterm elections

At a regular press briefing on 4 November, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning declined to comment directly on how the election might affect US-China relations. Instead, she reiterated that China stands ready to continue working with the US to uphold and deliver on the important common understandings reached by the two heads of state, enhance communication, properly manage differences, expand cooperation, and build a constructive relationship of strategic stability.

Denis Simon, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute in the US, told Lianhe Zaobao (LHZB): “The Democratic takeover of Congress does not necessarily signal the end of constructive strategic stability between Washington and Beijing. However, it makes that objective more difficult to achieve and sustain.”

He added: “Trump wants to preserve diplomatic flexibility in dealing with Chinese President Xi Jinping, whereas Congress is likely to seek stronger institutional safeguards against concessions to China. Trump may have considerable freedom to negotiate with Xi, but much less freedom to guarantee that Washington will implement every agreement.”

Simon believes these differences will be particularly pronounced over arms sales to Taiwan and technology policy. Following his meeting with Xi in May this year, Trump paused an arms sales package for Taiwan worth approximately US$14 billion.

The Democrats could make it politically more costly for Trump to delay the sales by stepping up congressional scrutiny, demanding explanations from the administration and introducing legislation. The executive branch retains substantial authority over the initiation and approval of arms transfers, while Congress has notification, review and legislative powers.

On technology, the Democrats may increase pressure for more restrictive semiconductor export licensing, greater scrutiny of advanced AI chips and computing equipment, additional restrictions on technology transfers involving sensitive industries, and stronger controls on Chinese investment in strategically important American sectors.

However, the party is not united on these issues. Some Democratic lawmakers are also concerned about the economic costs to American businesses and the consequences of excessive decoupling from China.

An APEC meeting?

Sun Chenghao, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, believes that a possible meeting between Trump and Xi on the sidelines of APEC will be an “important test” of whether efforts to build a constructive and strategically stable US-China relationship can withstand shifts in American domestic politics.

Trump may seek to boost US exports to China, reduce trade uncertainty and secure stable supplies of critical minerals, but that does not necessarily signal a softening of his stance towards Beijing.

Sun stressed that what matters is whether the understandings reached by the two leaders translate into concrete action, rather than simply creating a more cordial atmosphere during their meeting. Whether the two sides can sustain tariff reductions, mechanisms for trade and investment, and dialogue on AI will also be worth watching.

He believes that cost-of-living pressures could limit Trump’s scope to impose further tariffs, while restrictions on advanced chip exports are more likely to attract bipartisan support. Trump may also seek to push through trade and economic arrangements before the new Congress convenes on 3 January next year. Alternatively, he could announce arms sales or tighten restrictions on China after meeting Xi to counter domestic criticism that he has been “making concessions to Beijing”.

Status quo expected

Zhu Feng, executive director of the Collaborative Innovation Centre of South China Sea Studies at Nanjing University, and Dylan Loh, an associate professor of public policy and global affairs at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, both believe that Democratic control of both chambers of Congress will not fundamentally change the trajectory of US-China relations.

Zhu said that a constructive and strategically stable US-China relationship serves the interests of both countries, something the Democrats also recognise. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy is unlikely to change, while Beijing has never placed particularly high expectations on him in the first place. For China, “the most important thing is to stay the course with its own development strategy and avoid becoming trapped in a vicious cycle of great-power competition”.

Loh, meanwhile, said Republicans and Democrats are quite aligned on China policy. Even if Trump becomes a “lame duck” president over the next two years, US policy towards China is unlikely to change much, as Beijing will continue to prioritise diplomacy at the highest level while also looking ahead to the next US presidential election and the longer-term trajectory of bilateral relations. In Loh’s view, a meeting between Trump and Xi during APEC would be a demonstration of continuity, rather than a test, of a constructive and strategically stable US-China relationship.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “民主党赢得美国会两院 学者：中美战略稳定关系或面临考验”.

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