Japan and Philippines harden stance against China amid US-China detente

During the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last weekend, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth maintained the tone set after US President Donald Trump’s visit to China, significantly dialling down criticism of Beijing. China-US relations have eased — at least on the surface. 

As Washington softened its stance, some of the fierest repartees this year were the exchanges Japanese Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi and Philippines Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro Jr each had with members of the Chinese delegation.

New regional alignment 

This situation vividly reflects a new regional dynamic: the US stepping back while Japan and the Philippines coordinate more closely to counter China. As Washington appears increasingly preoccupied with its own challenges, repeatedly urging its Asia-Pacific allies to shoulder a greater share of defence responsibilities while warning that “a Pacific dominated by any hegemony would unravel the regional balance of power”, Japan and the Philippines have both come to the forefront to resist China’s growing influence.

Just before the Shangri-La Dialogue, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr paid a four-day state visit to Japan from 26 to 29 May, receiving a high-level welcome. The two countries upgraded their ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and agreed to expand cooperation in maritime security, defence, trade and investment. 

They also pledged to jointly uphold a rules-based international order in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Without naming China directly, both sides expressed “serious concern” over developments in the East China Sea and South China Sea, and strongly opposed any unilateral attempts to change the status quo through force or coercion.

During the visit, Japan and the Philippines also agreed to launch negotiations on a General Security of Military Information Agreement to facilitate the sharing of security-related classified information. Marcos returned home with US$3.4 billion in investment commitments, which are expected to create over 10,000 direct and indirect jobs in the Philippines.

Moving beyond economic partnership

The elevation of Japan-Philippines relations should be seen not merely as the product of bilateral economic and trade needs, but rather as the result of broader geopolitical forces. Richard Heydarian, a prominent Philippine political commentator, wrote in the Japanese media that the deepening Philippine-Japan relationship has been a decade in the making. Historically, Tokyo was primarily a top source of investments, aid and technology for Manila, and many of the Philippines’ major infrastructure projects, including a multibillion subway project currently under construction, were built and financed by Japan.

He added, “Under the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (and later his proteges), however, Tokyo steadily built deep defense ties with the Philippines, with a particular focus on maritime security. While providing crucial surveillance equipment to the Philippine Navy, Japan also played a pivotal role in the transformation of the Philippine Coast Guard into a modern, capable force amid the intensifying South China Sea disputes.”

In late April this year, Japan fully participated in the annual US-Philippines Balikatan military exercises for the first time, deploying 1,400 Self-Defense Forces along with a helicopter-class destroyer, destroyer, landing ship, transport aircraft and amphibious search and rescue aircraft. It also conducted live-fire exercises on Philippine territory for the first time.

Heydarian argued that the burgeoning Philippine-Japan alliance represents one of the most consequential cases of middle power cooperation in the 21st century. Instead of helplessly musing over American strategic commitment, they are “Trump-proofing” their measures on China.

At present, Japan and the Philippines are arguably the two countries in the region whose relations with China are the most strained. Japan faces unresolved historical grievances and ongoing sovereignty disputes with Beijing. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ relationship with China tends to fluctuate depending on who is president, with disputes over sovereignty in the South China Sea swinging between periods of tension and relative stability.

Taiwan the unexpected casualty

Japan and the Philippines have drawn closer in mutual support, but an unexpected casualty may be Taiwan. In a joint statement issued after their 28 May summit, Japan and the Philippines announced formal negotiations on delimiting the maritime boundary of their exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and continental shelves under UNCLOS.

As expected, Beijing immediately responded by dispatching two coast guard vessels to conduct “law enforcement patrols” in waters east of Taiwan, leaving Taipei caught in a dilemma.

The EEZs claimed by Japan and the Philippines overlap in the South China Sea and also significantly overlap with Taiwan’s claimed EEZ. In particular, waters east of Taiwan are an important traditional fishing ground for fishermen from Yilan and other areas.

When Japan and the Philippines first announced plans to negotiate maritime boundaries, Taiwan’s government appeared unconcerned and even welcomed the move. Only after the controversy grew did it state that the negotiations should not undermine Taiwan’s interests, or that Taipei should be consulted if its interests were affected.

However, Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said the purpose of the Japan-Philippines maritime boundary talks was to counter mainland China’s military expansion in the Pacific. He added that Taiwan would continue to strengthen cooperation with Japan and the Philippines to help maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and the first island chain.

Taiwan’s dilemma lies in its view of Japan as a partner in resisting mainland China. As a result, when Japan and the Philippines moved to negotiate maritime delimitation, Taiwan initially expressed approval, driven by a sense of shared values and alignment.

However, in practical terms, states rarely compromise on issues of territorial sovereignty. The outcome of Japan-Philippines negotiations could harm Taiwan’s economic interests, and more importantly, it provided Beijing with a pretext to conduct open operations in waters east of Taiwan under the guise of independent law enforcement patrols, for the first time outside a military exercise context.

Given time, such patrols by Beijing in waters east of Taiwan could become routine, effectively extending control over the area. In that case, Taiwan would find itself under pressure from both sides.

Regionwide complexity

Japan-Philippines military cooperation is not without drawbacks for Beijing. Mainland China is also likely to be wary of the interlinkage between disputes in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, as this would draw in more actors and deepen their involvement, further complicating the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

Shortly after Marcos Jr returned from his visit to Japan, Manila received a state visit from To Lam, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. The Philippines and Vietnam issued a joint declaration elevating the current strategic partnership to an enhanced strategic partnership, with both leaders stating at a press conference that “peace, stability, and the freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea remains non-negotiable”.

This suggests that, even without the involvement of the US or Trump, regional states will act to safeguard their own interests. Peace and stability in the region do not depend solely on China and the US; beyond the Taiwan Strait issue, there is also the South China Sea, which concerns ASEAN countries. If these issues become increasingly interconnected, the regional situation will grow more sensitive and complex.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “日菲抱团“抗中”台湾承压”.

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