Why America’s domestic reset won’t change its China policy

The much-watched 2026 US midterm elections are over. The Democrats successfully swept the nation with a “blue wave” that dramatically altered the political landscape. At the ballot box, voters across the country decisively rebuked the Republican party, especially US President Donald Trump. The remaining two years of the Trump 2.0 administration are likely to offer a textbook example of a lame-duck presidency.

Wave of firsts

It is common, even customary, for commentators to use words like “historic” and “landslide” to describe election results. But this year, Americans have genuinely made history in many ways. To many, the blue wave looks like a “blue tsunami”. The Democratic party has gained solid control of both chambers of Congress for the first time in over a quarter of a century, as well as the majority of governorships for the first time since 2010. 

The all-important local government offices now also appear heavily blue, even in some so-called red states. The Republicans lost Senate races in their decades-long strongholds, such as South Carolina and Kansas. The US will have its first black speaker in the House of Representatives, its first Muslim senator, its first openly gay male senator, its first black governor in the conservative state of Florida, and its first female and first black governor in Georgia, the “Empire State of the South”.

Perhaps more importantly, these midterm elections seem to have delivered a resounding defeat to big money in electoral politics, brazen partisan manoeuvring through extreme gerrymandering, an internet-influencer style of performative and even deceptive campaigning, and suspiciously nepotistic political patronage. For example, the unprecedented spending of hundreds of millions of dollars by the trillionaire Elon Musk, along with the equally large sums mustered by the Trump super PAC (political action committee) war chest, failed to stop the Democrats from flipping both a Senate seat and the governorship in Texas simultaneously — a truly astonishing political change in the Lone Star State.

Vitality and resilience of American political system

While the full impact of the Blue Wave has yet to be seen, one thing is certain: the “ancient” American political system has once again shown its vitality and resilience in the face of many new, even exotic, challenges. Trust in the judgment of ordinary voters still seems sound and warranted. The system’s many vulnerabilities to manipulation by money, misinformation and showmanship appear to be largely manageable, though a fresh, informed look at how to address those vulnerabilities is likely to feature prominently on the new American political agenda soon. 

The brilliant checks-and-balances mechanism remains messy but is working. The much-discussed cultural and political “polarisation” in American society still pales in comparison with its unity and common sense — it seems that people do indeed often mistake smoke and noise for reality.

Having just celebrated its quarter-millennium birthday, the oldest democracy carries on with its built-in swings between left and right, its ample room for experimentation through trial and error, and its ceaseless exploration of boundaries and new terrain. It is not perfect or even fully up to date, but to paraphrase former UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill, it remains among the least bad political systems humankind has been able to create. With the world’s most complete collection of peoples, cultures, fault lines and ideas, the US struggles but still manages to sustain its remarkable tradition of peaceful and orderly power sharing and transfers of power.

Around the world, people are watching these midterm elections with intense and well-justified interest. Many may now breathe a sigh of relief as they see more “normalcy” return to Washington — or, in the words of more than one friend, a chance “to regain sanity”. Others, however, may rightly feel disappointed to see their wishes dashed, as the American hegemon appears to have held together and swung back.

US’s foreign policy still holds

These midterm elections are very important for US foreign policy, with its global consequences, but their direct impact is rather limited because the president has greater power and authority in that area. 

In a few areas of foreign affairs, though, meaningful changes are likely to take place. The protracted and murky war with Iran is likely to come to an end. The Ukrainians are likely to get more American help in their bloody war of resistance against Russia. The Middle East may see new realignments. Canadians, Europeans and people in many countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America may see less of America’s “abusive” fury, even though the now-standard and often childish verbal barbs from Washington may continue for a while. 

Trump’s tariff war against the world is likely to be scaled back and refocused. US immigration policy and its enforcement will face renewed scrutiny and further changes. The much-criticised ties between power and money in high places, both domestic and foreign, will likely keep the new Congress busy with investigations, hearings and even the impeachment of some officials.

When it comes to the US’s most important and consequential bilateral relationship with the People’s Republic of China, changes after the tsunami of midterm elections may be somewhat surprisingly muted, or even merely cosmetic. From the final years of the second Bush administration to today, there has been a longstanding and clear bipartisan consensus in the US on the seriousness and the vital, even existential, nature of the competition across the Pacific. Tactics have varied, and different methods and approaches have been tried, including blatantly vile language and feigned verbal niceties. 

Ever grander and more “intimate” summit meetings, along with popular, albeit small-scale, cooperative efforts such as the so-called panda diplomacy, may have signalled the existence of some positive-sum, win-win elements in the Sino-American rivalry. 

Overall, however, the US-China relationship is structurally or genetically fixed on a largely and increasingly zero-sum course. Only major, even fundamental, political changes on either or both sides of the Pacific could significantly alter that fateful trajectory. The 2026 “blue wave”, revolutionary as it may be in the eyes of many, does not represent such a political change for US-China relations.

Related: Democrats’ midterm victory puts Trump’s China policy to the test | The world has passed peak Trump